ATL: OPHELIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ChrisH-UK]

Ophelia is now starting to get convection over the centre.

[CrazyC83]

Center drop 987 12kt wind

I'd go with 60 kt based on the last pass, and the pressure looks to be 986 mb. It's deepening pretty quick.

I think Hurricane Watches or Warnings will be necessary at the 5 pm advisory.

[sponger]

Center drop 987 12kt wind

I'd go with 60 kt based on the last pass, and the pressure looks to be 986 mb. It's deepening pretty quick.

I think Hurricane Watches or Warnings will be necessary at the 5 pm advisory.

Agreed.

[MGC]

Gulfstream working its magic. Ophelia making a run at hurricane......MGC

[CrazyC83]

Center drop 987 12kt wind

I'd go with 60 kt based on the last pass, and the pressure looks to be 986 mb. It's deepening pretty quick.

I think Hurricane Watches or Warnings will be necessary at the 5 pm advisory.

Agreed.

I think warnings if the forecast is explicitly or implicitly (i.e., between times) hurricane intensity, and watches if the NHC goes with a 60 kt peak.

[WalterWhite]

Recon found unflagged 75 kt FL winds, which corresponds to 67.5 kt. This warrants an upgrade to hurricane status.

[CrazyC83]

Recon found unflagged 75 kt FL winds, which corresponds to 67.5 kt. This warrants an upgrade to hurricane status.

They are flying at 850 mb, so those winds would translate to 60 kt.

[invest man]

Gulfstream working its magic. Ophelia making a run at hurricane......MGC

Seen lots of storms blow up along the gulf steam through the years. This still has plenty of time over very warm water now that it is tropical!

[CrazyC83]

The NHC will decide shortly, but assuming the forecast does become a hurricane at landfall, I'd think it would be a Hurricane Warning from Bogue Inlet to Oregon Inlet (incl. Pamlico Sound) and a Hurricane Watch from Oregon Inlet to the NC/VA line (incl. Albemarle Sound).

[invest man]

The NHC will decide shortly, but assuming the forecast does become a hurricane at landfall, I'd think it would be a Hurricane Warning from Bogue Inlet to Oregon Inlet (incl. Pamlico Sound) and a Hurricane Watch from Oregon Inlet to the NC/VA line (incl. Albemarle Sound).

Yes I agree but go a little more south to include Surf City

[wxman57]

Winds may peak in the next 6 hours then drop off a little just prior to landfall, as per most models. Any hurricane force wind would be west and southwest of the center at landfall,an unusual location.

[ColdMiser123]

Appears to still be deepening. New extrap of 984.6 mb so far this pass.

[syfr]

Any hurricane force wind would be west and southwest of the center at landfall,an unusual location.

That does seem quite unusual . The motion of the storm is in opposition to the direction of the prevailing wind in the SW quad I think, which makes this more strange.

Is there a reason for this in the nature of the storm or just a quirk?

[xironman]

Seems like a bit of a CDO around the center. Not many forecasts for a 'cane to come into hatteras this weekend.

[ColdMiser123]

Appears to still be deepening. New extrap of 984.6 mb so far this pass.

Got down to 983.8 mb. So a ~3 mb drop/pass. Pretty impressive pressure fall.

Recon also just found 70 kt SFMR.

[sikkar]

NHC still hasn't posted the 5pm cone and disco. Must be having intense discussions wether to call a cane or not.

[wxman57]

Any hurricane force wind would be west and southwest of the center at landfall,an unusual location.

That does seem quite unusual . The motion of the storm is in opposition to the direction of the prevailing wind in the SW quad I think, which makes this more strange.

Is there a reason for this in the nature of the storm or just a quirk?

Heaviest squalls are SW-W of the center. That's why.

No upgrade to a hurricane. I thought sure that they would upgrade it.

[CrazyC83]

NHC still hasn't posted the 5pm cone and disco. Must be having intense discussions wether to call a cane or not.

70 mph sustained winds, pressure 986 mb.

Not forecasting any further intensification as intensity models don't seem to suggest such, although they did put out a Hurricane Watch just in case. That was likely the deliberation - some mets at NHC probably were suggesting a warning and an explicit forecast of a hurricane.

[WalterWhite]

The structure of the cyclone has undergone some noteworthy changes today. GOES-16 1-min visible imagery, along with data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters and earlier scatterometer data, indicate that the center of the system has become better defined and is no longer attached to fronts.

This system is now completely non-frontal. There should no longer be any debate or discussion regarding its status as an extratropical cyclone: it is unambiguously not one anymore.

[HurricaneEnzo]

Gonna have to respectfully disagree with them naming this one which I rarely do. Not even close to being Tropical imo. Probably will increase awareness though for some folks so probably for the best.

Sent from my SM-S918U using Tapatalk

'
It had recon data to support the upgrade.

It's subtropical at best