ATL: TAMMY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[abajan]

Link: https://youtu.be/07O7Ypy5L5c

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon Oct 16 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL94):
A broad area of low pressure located over the central tropical
Atlantic, about midway between the Windward Islands and the
west coast of Africa, is producing a large area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected
to remain conducive for further development, and a tropical
depression will likely form during the next few days. This system
is forecast to move westward to west-northwestward across the
central and western tropical Atlantic during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

Forecaster Roberts

[abajan]

AL, 94, 2023101700, , BEST, 0, 100N, 397W, 20, 1012, LO

[abajan]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Tue Oct 17 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL94):
A broad area of low pressure located over the central tropical
Atlantic, about midway between the Windward Islands and the Cabo
Verde Islands, is producing a large area of disorganized showers
and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to
remain conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression
will likely form during the next few days while the system moves
westward to west-northwestward across the central and western
tropical Atlantic. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor
the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

Forecaster Cangialosi

[abajan]

AL, 94, 2023101706, , BEST, 0, 105N, 410W, 25, 1010, LO

[abajan]

[floridasun]

https://images2.imgbox.com/e7/e7/5mUPXg11_o.gif

It getting bigger now look like pretty strong wave now

[Nimbus]

https://images2.imgbox.com/e7/e7/5mUPXg11_o.gif

It getting bigger now look like pretty strong wave now

If this closes off into a tropical storm just before the islands Puerto Rico might be in the cone.

[abajan]

8AM

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL94):
A broad area of low pressure located over the central tropical
Atlantic about 1100 miles east of the Windward Islands continues to
produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are expected to remain conducive for
gradual development, and a tropical depression will likely form
during the next 2-3 days while the system moves westward to
west-northwestward across the central and western tropical Atlantic.
Interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of
this system. Additional information on this system, including gale
warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

[wxman57]

https://images2.imgbox.com/e7/e7/5mUPXg11_o.gif

It getting bigger now look like pretty strong wave now

If this closes off into a tropical storm just before the islands Puerto Rico might be in the cone.

The cone is completely irrelevant. It only represents an area where the center of storms tracked 66.7% of the time over the past 5 seasons. It's always the same for every storm and every advisory in a season. Pay no attention to the cone, as it does not represent current forecast uncertainty.

[abajan]

AL, 94, 2023101712, , BEST, 0, 109N, 423W, 25, 1010, LO

[wxman57]

I think that the NHC is being influenced too much by the GFS and HWRF as far as development potential. The wave is moving into some fairly strong westerly shear. Doesn't look very impressive at all. More rain for the NE Caribbean islands Fri-Sun.

[cycloneye]

I think that the NHC is being influenced too much by the GFS and HWRF as far as development potential. The wave is moving into some fairly strong westerly shear. Doesn't look very impressive at all. More rain for the NE Caribbean islands Fri-Sun.

Here in PR, some areas are in drought and some of the other islands too. We welcome the beneficial rains it could bring to the NE Caribbean islands. No more than that of course.

[MarioProtVI]

I think that the NHC is being influenced too much by the GFS and HWRF as far as development potential. The wave is moving into some fairly strong westerly shear. Doesn't look very impressive at all. More rain for the NE Caribbean islands Fri-Sun.

It doesn’t look bad rn and certainly better then the last few days. Also, EURO tends to struggle with MDR waves IIRC and also tends to keep storms broadened out despite every other model saying otherwise. The EURO ensembles still have a strong TS/C1. So to say they’re being influenced too much by one or two models is absurd considering literally every other model except for like two develops this into at least a strong TS.

[abajan]

Link: https://youtu.be/i1crb9F4KvA

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Tue Oct 17 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL94):
Satellite images indicate that a broad area of low pressure located
about 1100 miles east of the Windward Islands has become better
defined since this morning, and the associated showers and
thunderstorms are also showing signs of organization. Environmental
conditions are expected to remain conducive for gradual
development, and a tropical depression will likely form during the
next day or two while the system moves westward to
west-northwestward across the central and western tropical
Atlantic. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the
progress of this system. Additional information, including gale
warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National
Weather Service. Regardless of development, this system has the
potential to bring gusty winds, heavy rainfall and flooding to
portions of the Lesser Antilles beginning Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

Forecaster Blake

[abajan]

AL, 94, 2023101718, , BEST, 0, 115N, 435W, 30, 1010, LO

[DorkyMcDorkface]

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Tue Oct 17 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL94):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located a little over 1000 miles east of the Windward
Islands continue to show signs of organization. Environmental
conditions are expected to remain conducive for gradual
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the
next day or two while the system moves westward to
west-northwestward across the central and western tropical
Atlantic. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the
progress of this system. Additional information, including gale
warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service. Regardless of development, this system
has the potential to bring gusty winds, heavy rainfall, and flooding
to portions of the Lesser Antilles beginning Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

Forecaster Roberts