EPAC: OTIS - Aftermath - Discussion

[Category5Kaiju]

I...I...what on earth

 https://twitter.com/burgwx/status/1716972676471021754

[KirbyDude25]

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_2023_10/20231025_0005_f16_91h_18E_OTIS.125kts.941mb_15_7N_99_6W.100pc.jpg.3a9add9d97d1ce277567281ab9edd628.jpg

Wow, that is a thick eyewall! Doesn't look like there'll be an ERC anytime soon either...

[CrazyC83]

If only we could get another Recon plane in before landfall. I don't believe another mission is planned, and even if so, it would have to leave Keesler like now to get there before landfall.

[Ntxw]

No words.

[cycloneye]

If only we could get another Recon plane in before landfall. I don't believe another mission is planned, and even if so, it would have to leave Keesler like now to get there before landfall.

Maybe NHC didn't anticipated this happening that did not had a plane for tonight.

[Zonacane]

If only we could get another Recon plane in before landfall. I don't believe another mission is planned, and even if so, it would have to leave Keesler like now to get there before landfall.

Just going to wait for raw or instantaneous T to pull the trigger on an upgrade if I had to guess.

[FireRat]

Couldn't have been more wrong.

This one's a male? Yet another tropical storm.

Otis wants to keep the pattern of major female - TS male alive.

Nature's absolute troll moment, this can't be real!

[fllawyer]

Absolutely unreal intensification spurt. To think it was only forecast to be a tropical storm at landfall just days ago.

https://i.imgur.com/z01Tdnc.png

The 11pm ET discussion less than 24 hours ago (10/23) forecast 70mph peak at landfall.

[Category5Kaiju]

I think this has got to be the first time in either EPAC or Atlantic basin recorded history that a storm intensified this much despite models keeping it extremely weak with no real future. I'm genuinely alarmed at how badly models whiffed on this storm's potential.

[CrazyC83]

The Raw T# is 7.3, which would support 150 kt if taken at face value. Sometimes that can be off (Eta, Iota) but sometimes it can be right.

[cycloneye]

Does anyone has information about how many people live in the landfall area? The largest city is Acapulco, but there are other ones in the area.

[Yellow Evan]

Great CDO circularity. Zenith angle means GOES 18 is not picking up the warmest pixel of the eye as well.

[Yellow Evan]

Does anyone has information about how many people live in the landfall area? The largest city is Acapulco, but there are other ones in the area.

Just Acapulco with 1 million people.

[CrazyC83]

No words.

https://i.imgur.com/UxInhC9.png

If that CDG closes off and the eye is warm enough, that's T8.0?

[Yellow Evan]

We must remember there are about 1 million people in the Acapulco metro area. That's not much fewer than in the New Orleans metro. This would be like a tropical storm in the central Gulf rapidly charging up to category 4-5 as it came right into the marshlands within 150 miles of the coast.

Acapulco is higher in elevation and waters offshore are much deeper here than the GOM.

[Ntxw]

No words.

https://i.imgur.com/UxInhC9.png

If that CDG closes off and the eye is warm enough, that's T8.0?

Eye is a little too cool, if views are correct. But at the explosive rate it's been intensifying wouldn't count it out. It has the warmest waters in the EPAC to work with.

[johngaltfla]

No words.

https://i.imgur.com/UxInhC9.png

If that CDG closes off and the eye is warm enough, that's T8.0?

Pray.

[Sciencerocks]

[Zonacane]

The Raw T# is 7.3, which would support 150 kt if taken at face value. Sometimes that can be off (Eta, Iota) but sometimes it can be right.

Based on our last recon data and how the storm currently looks, I don’t think that’s far off.

[CrazyC83]

 https://twitter.com/CC_StormWatch/status/1716997579701944821