ATL: FRANKLIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[IsabelaWeather]

When is recon scheduled?

[cycloneye]

When is recon scheduled?

Thia afternoon at 12:30 PM.

[ChrisH-UK]

Franklin is looking way better than expected, I wonder if the models have underestimated it.

[Blown Away]

I think Franklin’s COC is about to pop out to the W. GFS shows COC reform to NE while Euro seems to keep this weak COC and reform N of Hispaniola.

[kevin]

I think Franklin is severely being underestimated right now. ADT has steadily been increasing during the day. Cloud temperature is at almost -80C and raw T# is at 4.4 (981 mb, 75 kt). I don't know how stable Franklin's current structure is, but if it continues to develop like this I think recon might even find hurricane winds.

Current Intensity Analysis



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 21 AUG 2023 Time : 131020 UTC
Lat : 14:59:41 N Lon : 69:49:20 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.0 / 983.1mb/ 65.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.0 4.2 4.4

Center Temp : -77.0C Cloud Region Temp : -79.1C

[kevin]

[ScottNAtlanta]

Looks like the center is on the SW edge of the convection. The center is not under the main convection. It's not stacked. Also, the ULL that is supposed to steer this to the north is situated more in an east/west orientation.

[Blown Away]

Looks like the center is on the SW edge of the convection. The center is not under the main convection. It's not stacked.

Agree, does it reform to the NE per GFS or continue farther W than track, per a few Icon & Euro runs??

[ScottNAtlanta]

Looks like the center is on the SW edge of the convection. The center is not under the main convection. It's not stacked.

Agree, does it reform to the NE per GFS or continue farther W than track, per a few Icon & Euro runs??

The ULL that is supposed to be pulling this N is orientated E/W rather than N/S. That might be changing, but right now it is not in a physical orientation to pull it north.

[Iceresistance]

Look at that purple

https://imgur.com/IZp9KuE

I wasn't expecting that look from Franklin at all, it's literally destroying Gert with strong wind shear to the NE.

[Blown Away]

COC is moving faster than convection. NHC says no farther W than 71.2 by tomorrow, but it appears the current COC will blow by that today.

[WeatherBoy2000]

I think Franklin is severely being underestimated right now. ADT has steadily been increasing during the day. Cloud temperature is at almost -80C and raw T# is at 4.4 (981 mb, 75 kt). I don't know how stable Franklin's current structure is, but if it continues to develop like this I think recon might even find hurricane winds.

Current Intensity Analysis



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 21 AUG 2023 Time : 131020 UTC
Lat : 14:59:41 N Lon : 69:49:20 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.0 / 983.1mb/ 65.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.0 4.2 4.4

Center Temp : -77.0C Cloud Region Temp : -79.1C

Caribbean systems have a history of showy convection with little under hood. I highly suspect that this is the case here, recon will reveal its true nature soon enough.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

I am expecting the LLC to redevelop somewhere under the deep convection tomorrow, in line with the GFS and typical of sheered systems undergoing massive convective bursts.

[dexterlabio]

You all know why a CoC pattern forms, right?

[Sciencerocks]

[Nimbus]

When is recon scheduled?

Thia afternoon at 12:30 PM.

Need a good look at this thing its pumping outflow like mad.
Hope it doesn't fill that trough or shear off and run naked toward the gulf.

[Blown Away]

NHC says no farther W than 71.0, clearly see the low level clouds on the W half of COC moving W at a good pace. That COC is going to pop out soon and based on 11am Disco the NHC, even w/ high uncertainty, is predicting NE reform per the GFS.

[Sciencerocks]

[Ianswfl]

When is recon scheduled?

Thia afternoon at 12:30 PM.

Need a good look at this thing its pumping outflow like mad.
Hope it doesn't fill that trough or shear off and run naked toward the gulf.

Models starting to look Jeanneish with Franklin. If it stayed weak maybe a track like charley?

[aspen]

So far it seems like recon is having trouble finding the LLC. I guess there’s some center reformation shenanigans going on in there. The HWRF was also showing a pretty disorganized system for today in prior runs. If the models are to be believed, we should see the vortex tighten up early tomorrow ahead of landfall in Hispaniola. The broad circulation should help Franklin survive the crossover.