ATL: LEE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[zzzh]

Still needs to work on the structure, convection is needed.
By the way, 95L is lucky to get 4 good ASCAT passes in a row

[869MB]

Unfortunately, in my opinion, a 1989 Hurricane Hugo 500mb upper-level pattern can't be ruled out at this juncture.

I was 3 when Hugo hit SC, and to some degree the damage I saw (and admittedly the excitement as a 3 year old) spurned a lot of my interest in tropical weather to this day. I, too, will be watching the upper levels closely for that rare setup that drives a storm directly into the east coast. Fortunately we are far out and that kind of setup takes everything lined up just right...

Hugo is also infamous as the storm that tried to take down a P-3 with Jeff Masters: https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/ ... ugo-part-1

Well, first of all, I'm glad you and your family made it through Hugo okay. Keep it in mind, that this is just a mere observation of mine and not some sort of forecast. I began looking at Hugo's analogs when the system began to exit Africa because of the time of year. The satellite pictures along with some of the early model track forecasts kind of reminded me of a young Hugo before it blew up, so I began looking back at upper-level patterns over the Atlantic and US in Sep 1989. In the big picture, this means nothing, so no one in South Carolina should be concerned about a Hugo repeat because it's just my personal observations when all is said and done.

[869MB]

Unfortunately, in my opinion, a 1989 Hurricane Hugo 500mb upper-level pattern can't be ruled out at this juncture. Just 24 to 36 hours ago, I really didn't think such a pattern would ever materialize. But now, I'm not quite so sure. The latest Operational GFS and Euro runs are kind of trending in that direction but in different manners. Nonetheless, most of us have been doing this long enough to know to never take mid to long-range upper patterns verbatim, and calling Fish Storm or CONUS strike based upon these models is premature. With that being said, I have the Hugo upper-level pattern memorized and will be very closely observing how the models resolve the pattern over the forthcoming days.

The U.S. 500mb Geopotential Height Composite Mean between 8/15/1989 and 8/19/1989...

https://psl.noaa.gov/tmp/composites/comphour.cEycrb_WAj.gif

12Z Euro run at 240hrs..

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=us&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2023090312&fh=12


For those of you not familiar with Hurricane Hugo, here's a link for reference...
https://www.weather.gov/ilm/hurricanehugo
https://www.weather.gov/images/ilm/climate/hugo/Hugo_track2.png

Very interesting all of that.

Yeah, I thought it was kind of interesting as well. Like I just told DukeBlue, these just are mere observations on my part and don't mean much at the end of the day. Puerto Rico, along with the Lesser Antilles, of course, will need to closely monitor this system in the forthcoming days and be prepared accordingly just in case. Hopefully, the system misses the islands to the NE.

[hipshot]

Unfortunately, in my opinion, a 1989 Hurricane Hugo 500mb upper-level pattern can't be ruled out at this juncture.

I was 3 when Hugo hit SC, and to some degree the damage I saw (and admittedly the excitement as a 3 year old) spurned a lot of my interest in tropical weather to this day. I, too, will be watching the upper levels closely for that rare setup that drives a storm directly into the east coast. Fortunately we are far out and that kind of setup takes everything lined up just right...

Hugo is also infamous as the storm that tried to take down a P-3 with Jeff Masters: https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/ ... ugo-part-1

I flew in a P3 in the Navy during the Vietnam era but fortunately never had to experience that. Those aircraft are pretty stiff winged and
bounce around a lot in even moderate turbulence, I can't imagine what it would be like as a hurricane hunter!!

[SconnieCane]

Unfortunately, in my opinion, a 1989 Hurricane Hugo 500mb upper-level pattern can't be ruled out at this juncture. Just 24 to 36 hours ago, I really didn't think such a pattern would ever materialize. But now, I'm not quite so sure. The latest Operational GFS and Euro runs are kind of trending in that direction but in different manners. Nonetheless, most of us have been doing this long enough to know to never take mid to long-range upper patterns verbatim, and calling Fish Storm or CONUS strike based upon these models is premature. With that being said, I have the Hugo upper-level pattern memorized and will be very closely observing how the models resolve the pattern over the forthcoming days.

The U.S. 500mb Geopotential Height Composite Mean between 8/15/1989 and 8/19/1989...

https://psl.noaa.gov/tmp/composites/comphour.cEycrb_WAj.gif

12Z Euro run at 240hrs..

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=us&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2023090312&fh=12


For those of you not familiar with Hurricane Hugo, here's a link for reference...
https://www.weather.gov/ilm/hurricanehugo
https://www.weather.gov/images/ilm/climate/hugo/Hugo_track2.png

An aside, but I've long been curious about the "135 MPH" often attributed to Hugo's SC landfall. With the way NHC's kt-to-MPH conversion and rounding works, 135 MPH would never be operationally reported in an advisory. It would either be 115 kt = 132.3 MPH-rounds down to 130 MPH (the 2012 tweaks to the SSHWS made this the low end of Category 4, rather than having it remain within Category 3 by 1 MPH as previously); or 120 kt = 138.1 MPH-rounds up to 140 MPH. So which one was Hugo?

[Kingarabian]

https://i.imgur.com/02MaZFc.jpg
Still needs to work on the structure, convection is needed.
By the way, 95L is lucky to get 4 good ASCAT passes in a row

Odd. We usually reserve good ASCAT passes for large donut eyed super typhoons.

[cycloneye]

https://i.imgur.com/02MaZFc.jpg
Still needs to work on the structure, convection is needed.
By the way, 95L is lucky to get 4 good ASCAT passes in a row

Convection trying to get going closer to circulation.

[Blown Away]

https://i.imgur.com/02MaZFc.jpg
Still needs to work on the structure, convection is needed.
By the way, 95L is lucky to get 4 good ASCAT passes in a row

Convection trying to get going closer to circulation.

https://i.imgur.com/xiPDozn.gif

COC seems to be farther N up near 12N?

[chaser1]

Unfortunately, in my opinion, a 1989 Hurricane Hugo 500mb upper-level pattern can't be ruled out at this juncture.

I was 3 when Hugo hit SC, and to some degree the damage I saw (and admittedly the excitement as a 3 year old) spurned a lot of my interest in tropical weather to this day. I, too, will be watching the upper levels closely for that rare setup that drives a storm directly into the east coast. Fortunately we are far out and that kind of setup takes everything lined up just right...

Hugo is also infamous as the storm that tried to take down a P-3 with Jeff Masters: https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/ ... ugo-part-1

I flew in a P3 in the Navy during the Vietnam era but fortunately never had to experience that. Those aircraft are pretty stiff winged and
bounce around a lot in even moderate turbulence, I can't imagine what it would be like as a hurricane hunter!!

I've flown in two. Fun, scary, and brain jarring (and they were only Cat 1's)

[Sciencerocks]

[Ianswfl]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img924/3693/M6r71F.gif

Still a lot of popcorn convection. Will be awhile before this becomes anything more than a weak tropical storm.

Reminds me of those tds or very weak short lived ts we get in early July. Anyway, I expect this to be a strong storm.

[Old-TimeCane]

An aside, but I've long been curious about the "135 MPH" often attributed to Hugo's SC landfall. With the way NHC's kt-to-MPH conversion and rounding works, 135 MPH would never be operationally reported in an advisory. It would either be 115 kt = 132.3 MPH-rounds down to 130 MPH (the 2012 tweaks to the SSHWS made this the low end of Category 4, rather than having it remain within Category 3 by 1 MPH as previously); or 120 kt = 138.1 MPH-rounds up to 140 MPH. So which one was Hugo?

I have no idea why I remember this, or even where from (so no I don't have any current reference to show), but I very strongly remember hearing/reading 138 mph many years ago, probably around the time when Hugo hit. I lived in Kentucky back then, but Hugo was the first hurricane I can remember being interested in.

[SouthernBreeze]

An aside, but I've long been curious about the "135 MPH" often attributed to Hugo's SC landfall. With the way NHC's kt-to-MPH conversion and rounding works, 135 MPH would never be operationally reported in an advisory. It would either be 115 kt = 132.3 MPH-rounds down to 130 MPH (the 2012 tweaks to the SSHWS made this the low end of Category 4, rather than having it remain within Category 3 by 1 MPH as previously); or 120 kt = 138.1 MPH-rounds up to 140 MPH. So which one was Hugo?

Here in Little River, I'd always heard Hugo was 130 MPH. I just remember the huge piles of tree debris that lined the highways here & didn't all get picked up until almost Christmas!

[cycloneye]

My prediction is that future Lee will be the system of the year ACE wise and will surpass the 22.6 of Franklin. I can see it reaching 40-45 ACE units.

[gatorcane]

Continues to signs of organization, NHC cone for development has been adjusted quite a bit north over the last few outlooks so continued good news from the islands and potentially CONUS. Bermuda might need to keep a close eye. Likely will become a significant and powerful hurricane accumulating a lot of ACE.

[cycloneye]

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL95):
Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization
in association with a tropical wave located several hundred miles
southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions are
forecast to be conducive for further development, and this system is
expected to become a tropical depression around midweek. Additional
strengthening is likely late this week while the system moves
westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph over the central and
western portions of the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

[gatorcane]

[AtlanticWind]

Very very likely our 3rd major of the year, we could end up with 5 or 6 in 2023. What El Niño ?

[cycloneye]

Organizing fairly fast.

[Dsci4]

Organizing fairly fast.

https://i.imgur.com/FBeR96v.gif

Still waiting to see where this decides to come together. Just looking at that loop there appears to be two areas… one by 12N and another closer to 10N. The area by 12N I believe is the forecasted spot for TCG

Edit: looking again I’m seeing it actually right around 11N and I’m only seeing one area