EPAC: JOVA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Kingarabian]

Genuine question: Given that Raw ADT is shooting up but the adjusted, constrained values are lagging, is it possible that we're looking at an Eta situation?

IIRC, Eta's raw T got up to 8.3 while final T stayed below 7. Before the underwhelming recon went in, people were saying the exact same thing as this - that the constraints are to ensure storms don't intensify too fast, which didn't apply to ERI phases like Eta. However, recon found Eta to be just a 130 kt Cat 4, in line with the final T.

I would break constraints when going Cat.1 to Cat.3. Cat.3 to Cat.5 I need to see a CI near T6.5 and instantaneous T7.0's. Safest way to go about it. That being said, it will qualify for a cat.5 very soon.

[Hurricane2022]

It seems that Eta's incredible failure still traumatizes many people. I'm sure not every hurricane like Jova, which has a powerful pinhole eye, is like Eta, and possibly Rai, which also had very tiny eyes.

Genuine question: Given that Raw ADT is shooting up but the adjusted, constrained values are lagging, is it possible that we're looking at an Eta situation?

IIRC, Eta's raw T got up to 8.3 while final T stayed below 7. Before the underwhelming recon went in, people were saying the exact same thing as this - that the constraints are to ensure storms don't intensify too fast, which didn't apply to ERI phases like Eta. However, recon found Eta to be just a 130 kt Cat 4, in line with the final T.

I could certainly be talking nonsense here, but if we follow that reasoning, I think we could judge that Wilma '05 probably didn't have its famous intensity of 160 kt/882 mb (confirmed by reconnaissance), but somewhere around 135 - 145 knots . Satellite estimates often mislead us, but always claiming that satellites are overestimating, as in this case of Jova, could perhaps be a mistake.

[Kingarabian]

It seems that Eta's incredible failure still traumatizes many people. I'm sure not every hurricane like Jova, which has a powerful pinhole eye, is like Eta, and possibly Rai, which also had very tiny eyes.

Genuine question: Given that Raw ADT is shooting up but the adjusted, constrained values are lagging, is it possible that we're looking at an Eta situation?

IIRC, Eta's raw T got up to 8.3 while final T stayed below 7. Before the underwhelming recon went in, people were saying the exact same thing as this - that the constraints are to ensure storms don't intensify too fast, which didn't apply to ERI phases like Eta. However, recon found Eta to be just a 130 kt Cat 4, in line with the final T.

I could certainly be talking nonsense here, but if we follow that reasoning, I think we could judge that Wilma '05 probably didn't have its famous intensity of 160 kt/882 mb (confirmed by reconnaissance), but somewhere around 135 - 145 knots . Satellite estimates often mislead us, but always claiming that satellites are overestimating, as in this case of Jova, could perhaps be a mistake.

I agree here. I think Teban54 is saying to hold off on calling for a cat.5 until Dvorak/winds catch up. Dvorak is catching up though and will qualify on the scale very soon.

[Ntxw]

Outside of the extreme storms, this is as easy as you can get.

[Kingarabian]

Microwave passes over the system should be up soon.

[CrazyC83]

I'd go with 135 kt right now. This is well on its way to top-end status, but I'd want to see a warmer eye first. Still, a Special Advisory may be warranted, to raise the forecast intensity upward (I'd peak it at 155 kt).

I have to wonder...could we start seeing CDG wrap all the way around? Only the most legendary storms do that.

[Hurricane2022]

No special advisory it seems. Didn’t another EPac major this season get a special advisory? There’s no reason not to do one for Jova, whose current intensity estimate is likely 20-30 kt too low.

I think until at least 01:00z we could expect the NHC to issue a special advisory for Jova

[Ntxw]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 06 SEP 2023 Time : 231020 UTC
Lat : 15:10:12 N Lon : 112:17:24 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.8 / 953.1mb/109.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.8 5.9 7.6

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : +15.5C Cloud Region Temp : -76.5C

Scene Type : EYE

[TorSkk]

7.0

TXPZ27 KNES 062348
TCSENP

A. 11E (JOVA)

B. 06/2330Z

C. 15.2N

D. 112.3W

E. ONE/GOES-W

F. T7.0/7.0

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...WMG EYE IS SURROUNDED BY AND EMBEDDED IN CMG RESULTING
IN A DT OF 7.5 AFTER ADDING 1.0 FOR AN EYE ADJUSTMENT. THE MET IS 5.0
BASED ON RAPID DEVELOPMENT AND THE PT IS 5.5. THE FT IS BASED ON THE 6
HOUR AVERAGE DT OF 6.9, WHICH JUSTIFIES BREAKING CONSTRAINTS.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...TURK

[Hurricane2022]

[Yellow Evan]

7.0

TXPZ27 KNES 062348
TCSENP

A. 11E (JOVA)

B. 06/2330Z

C. 15.2N

D. 112.3W

E. ONE/GOES-W

F. T7.0/7.0

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...WMG EYE IS SURROUNDED BY AND EMBEDDED IN CMG RESULTING
IN A DT OF 7.5 AFTER ADDING 1.0 FOR AN EYE ADJUSTMENT. THE MET IS 5.0
BASED ON RAPID DEVELOPMENT AND THE PT IS 5.5. THE FT IS BASED ON THE 6
HOUR AVERAGE DT OF 6.9, WHICH JUSTIFIES BREAKING CONSTRAINTS.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...TURK

NHC probably goes 140 if TAFB matches.

[Ntxw]

Very warm eye now. I'd give it 140kts right now.

[bob rulz]

Remarkable storm. Went to bed last night with this having just reached cat 1. Come home today and it looks like a borderline cat 5. I wish the NHC would send recon into a system like this even if it is no threat to land.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Yellow Evan, it seems I stand corrected. Looking at this, it is very possibly a category 5, or soon will be.

[galaxy401]

If this does reach Category 5 in the next advisory, will this be the fastest a storm goes from being a Tropical Depression to a Cat 5?

[cycloneye]

155 mph

EP, 11, 2023090700, , BEST, 0, 153N, 1124W, 135, 933, HU

[ElectricStorm]

135kts probably isn't a bad estimate for now but it should be 140kts+ by the advisory in a couple hours. Hopefully they upgrade it then

[MarioProtVI]

I’m probably gonna get clowned for this but I really do not see them upgrading to Cat 5 here and chances are it’s peaking right now (meaning degradation or EWRC occurring - something the microwave seems to be hinting towards with that outer band). They’ve basically been terrified of doing so since Iota (even though that was a legitimate C5 and was probably one earlier then NHC thought).

[Hurricane2022]

155 mph

EP, 11, 2023090700, , BEST, 0, 153N, 1124W, 135, 933, HU

JTWC would likely classify this as a C5 STY...

[Ntxw]

I’m probably gonna get clowned for this but I really do not see them upgrading to Cat 5 here and chances are it’s peaking right now (meaning degradation or EWRC occurring - something the microwave seems to be hinting towards with that outer band). They’ve basically been terrified of doing so since Iota (even though that was a legitimate C5 and was probably one earlier then NHC thought).

It will be interesting as Lee intensifies soon and we can compare with recon. If it achieves C5 over there with less, it will be tough to justify, but of course that's the benefit of recon. A lot of ifs though.