Teban54 wrote: Genuine question: Given that Raw ADT is shooting up but the adjusted, constrained values are lagging, is it possible that we're looking at an Eta situation?
IIRC, Eta's raw T got up to 8.3 while final T stayed below 7. Before the underwhelming recon went in, people were saying the exact same thing as this - that the constraints are to ensure storms don't intensify too fast, which didn't apply to ERI phases like Eta. However, recon found Eta to be just a 130 kt Cat 4, in line with the final T.
I would break constraints when going Cat.1 to Cat.3. Cat.3 to Cat.5 I need to see a CI near T6.5 and instantaneous T7.0's. Safest way to go about it. That being said, it will qualify for a cat.5 very soon.