ATL: IDALIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tolakram]

I would like to see a discussion about this....

I thought a stronger storm would move more poleward by nature, but a weaker one be more impacted by the currents around it.

This one appears to be poised to get carried away by the trough as it sweeps through. But it's also predicted to become a strong (Cat 3) storm.

So what do I not understand?

That isn't necessarily always true. A stronger storm will feel the steering higher up in the atmosphere, where a weak storm will be steered at the lower levels.

we saw this with Charley and Ian and it is why so many of us are afraid of another quicker and steeper right hook than where it is forecast

Charlie was years and years ago, Ian had warning signs, models drifting south with one standout that kept the official track too far north. This time tracks are grouped and no steady drifting. Regardless, if you live on the Florida coast nothing should surprise you.

[Iceresistance]

40mm/hr rain rate
Core is heating up

AF309 just reported the rain rate to be over 60mm/hr


https://s11.gifyu.com/images/SgghZ.png

[Mouton]

Euro ensembles seem to be locking on to Cedar Key with a North Florida exit. I think the NHC track will be nudged South at 11 to account for that and the UKMET agreement. Western Jacksonville is full of trees that have not been hammered since Irma so it will be a mess for days if that verifies. Bad timing for Tampa with the astronomical high tide at 4 am Wed morning. May they yet again miss the worse that the storm has to offer.

UKmet has been right side of NHC track for sometime. One thing also to consider is the pinwheel effect these storms seem to have as they hear the Peninsula. I am planning for a more southern route with an exit in NE Florida between the St Johns and St Mary's rivers. Hopefully for us here on Amelia as a Cat 1 or lower. Bastardi had some commentary on this on Saturday about not expecting this storm to just drop off to a TS or depression.

The water vapor loops show a strong boundary which has been moving east for the past two days also. It is now near 86W above 27NL. That will be a wall the storm cannot go around IMO. I will reevaluate with the 5PM as movement now is picking up forward speed. I am a bit bemused at how little attention is being given this storm. The NHC commentary this AM spoke of RI coming. Not sure it gets to a 4 but a 3 seems in the mix for sure.

[ScottNAtlanta]

All I can say for people stressing about a more south or more north track...prepare as though you are in the bullseye. Way better to over prepare and be missed by the storm than to not prepare enough

[NDG]

12z sounding from Cancun shows the light northerly shear at h20-h30 still affecting Idalia this morning.

[toad strangler]

St. Marks to Cedar Key is pretty darn desolate right on Big Bend coast. Certainly a positive that will help mitigate landfall area storm surge damage / loss should Idalia behave. Tampa Bay area though is very vulnerable as we all know regardless of being missed slightly to the W.

[GCANE]

Now 66mm/hr rain rate!
Burners cranked to the max

[GCANE]

40mm/hr rain rate
Core is heating up

AF309 just reported the rain rate to be over 60mm/hr

https://s11.gifyu.com/images/SgghZ.png
https://s11.gifyu.com/images/SgghZ.png

Just saw that on the HDOB.
Thanks
Afterburners kicking.
One of the highest rain rates I have seen.

[chris_fit]

On Satellite, she looks impressive.

Not so much on radar...

[AnnularCane]

It kind of boggles my mind a bit that people can live on the coast, at the peak of the season, and not bother to keep updated on the tropics and have no idea that anything is coming until someone tells them. Makes me wonder what would happen if no one told them. Would they suspect something and finally turn on the news when they see their neighbors all boarding up and/or packing up and leaving? Or is it possible they would be caught completely off guard when it's too late to do much of anything?

Or maybe it's just because I follow everything that develops just because.

[eastcoastFL]

SFWMD Update

Tropical storm conditions next 48 hours: Yes


DISCUSSION:

Area of Interest: Tropical Storm Idalia, located about 120 miles south of the western tip of Cuba, and is moving slowly northward with 65-mph maximum sustained winds. Idalia is likely to continue on a slow northward course and is forecast to become a hurricane later today. Afterwards, Idalia is forecast to strengthen more rapidly while moving faster north-northeastward to northward toward Florida, where it will most likely make landfall somewhere between the Apalachee Bay and the Florida Big Bend. On this track, heavy rains and tropical-storm-wind-force winds, along with the threat of storm surge, are likely to be felt along the southwest coast of the SFWMD on Tuesday and inland areas northwest of Lake Okeechobee late Tuesday through midday Wednesday. Rains and winds would gradually diminish from south to north and subside completely over the northwestern part of the SFWMD by Wednesday afternoon. These rain and wind effects will be felt well outside the forecast cone and could become more pronounced if the storm grows larger in size before making landfall, is stronger than forecast, or if the track nudges slightly east. SFWMD interests in the watch areas are advised to take the necessary preparedness actions, and all others are advised to continue closely monitoring the progress of Idalia.

[AtlanticWind]

One observation I would make is that if the hurricane follows the forecasted track
it will come ashore in one of the least populated areas in Florida

This is not to minimize the impacts as a lot of people will have serious damage and life
threatening situations and many inland cities also will experience quite a lot of impacts

[Iceresistance]

On Satellite, she looks impressive.

Not so much on radar...

https://i.imgur.com/FTNrMWT.gif

https://i.imgur.com/czZkKYn.gif

Did the bottom radar image show a center reformation jump to the south or anything?

[eastcoastFL]

Now 66mm/hr rain rate!
Burners cranked to the max

How fast is she forecast to be moving on the approach to our coast? I haven’t seen any major rainfall accumulations forecasted so far.

[chris_fit]

On Satellite, she looks impressive.

Not so much on radar...

https://i.imgur.com/FTNrMWT.gif

https://i.imgur.com/czZkKYn.gif

Did the bottom radar image show a center reformation jump to the south or anything?

Not sure, but looking at both those radars, something weird might be happening. The pro mets always say "follow the convection" - So an adjustment to the South/Right (where there's more convection) might not be that crazy. I'm sure that would have some track implications down the road....

[skillz305]

On Satellite, she looks impressive.

Not so much on radar...

https://i.imgur.com/FTNrMWT.gif

https://i.imgur.com/czZkKYn.gif

Did the bottom radar image show a center reformation jump to the south or anything?

I don’t believe so

[Iceresistance]

TS with an eyewall?


https://s11.gifyu.com/images/Sggvg.png

[MJGarrison]

TS with an eyewall?


https://s11.gifyu.com/images/Sggvg.png

It says SE Eyewall…so maybe just on the SE.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[ScottNAtlanta]

On Satellite, she looks impressive.

Not so much on radar...

https://i.imgur.com/FTNrMWT.gif

https://i.imgur.com/czZkKYn.gif

That is also beginning to be out of range too

[aspen]

On Satellite, she looks impressive.

Not so much on radar...

https://i.imgur.com/FTNrMWT.gif

https://i.imgur.com/czZkKYn.gif

She’s trying. You can see bands attempted to wrap around the LLC, getting sheared away, and then attempting to wrap again. The hurricane models are showing rapid eyewall development tomorrow morning once shear drops, which seems possible given how the storm is behaving now.