ATL: IDALIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[chris_fit]

Very interesting setup here.

Look at the ULL over the FL Panhandle. Look at all that Dry Air trying to make it's way to her. And then there's Franklin finally turning due north...

[cheezyWXguy]

On Satellite, she looks impressive.

Not so much on radar...

https://i.imgur.com/FTNrMWT.gif

https://i.imgur.com/czZkKYn.gif

Did the bottom radar image show a center reformation jump to the south or anything?

Nah it’s just spitting out little vortices as it tries (unsuccessfully for now) to wrap convection around its core. That persistent yellow blob though is probably what will eventually become it’s eastern eyewall.

[ScottNAtlanta]

If you look at the high resolution satellite, you can see the hot towers start to rotate in the last couple of frames
https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-02-96-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

[skillz305]

If Hurricane Franklin is moving ahead of schedule, what implication does it have for Idalia? Does it open up the door to run NE?

[Steve]

If Hurricane Franklin is moving ahead of schedule, what implication does it have for Idalia? Does it open up the door to run NE?

New Discussion should be out shortly (next 15-20 minutes) on NHC's website and wherever Cycloneye posts it on storm2k. They will say if there are any changes or adjustments they are making since 4:00am CDT Discussion.

[chris_fit]

Any bets on track at 11am? I'm expecting a slight W adjustment to better align with the TVCN (although not quite all the way to the TVCN)

[eastcoastFL]

Any bets on track at 11am? I'm expecting a slight W adjustment to better align with the TVCN (although not quite all the way to the TVCN)

I think they may hold it where it was last update.

[Spacecoast]

NHC 4AM: "The bottom line is that rapid intensification is becoming
increasingly likely before landfall, and the NHC forecast now
explicitly indicates it between 24-48 h in the forecast. This is
consistent with almost all of the regional hurricane models and the
SHIPS rapid intensification indices, which are 5-10 times the
climatological mean."

SHIPS RI Prob has since decreased to ~3 times the climo mean...

[sponger]

Any bets on track at 11am? I'm expecting a slight W adjustment to better align with the TVCN (although not quite all the way to the TVCN)

Hard to say. TVCN is pulled West by GFS and new hurricane models. We will find out how much credence they still have in the Euro. They have been burned by model average before! Definitely earning their paycheck today and tomorrow!

[FLLurker32]

Any bets on track at 11am? I'm expecting a slight W adjustment to better align with the TVCN (although not quite all the way to the TVCN)

I think they may hold it where it was last update.

I agree that they’ll hold it for now. We’ll see soon.

[LandoWill]

Here in pasco, they canceled school already both the next 2 days

[Full8s]

I am the department chair of social studies at my high school in Polk County and I sent out an email to my department with some tips for prepping your room for a hurricane and I got two replies, there is a storm coming?

Soooo yeah not a lot of people taking it seriously

Ironically, I'm also head of SS department, however, our district (Pasco County) has made it clear that it's time to prepare our rooms, not just for storm damage but to be used as shelters.

[eastcoastFL]

[tropicwatch]

Unless that ULL over the panhandle moves westward, I think the NHC will adjust eastward.

[LandoWill]

Here in pasco, they canceled school already both the next 2 days

Hello, Pasco County families.

Based on the advice of the Pasco County Emergency Management team, schools will be closed on Tuesday and Wednesday and resume regular school hours on Thursday. The closure includes all after-school enrichment programs, including PLACE, DELTA, and STAR.

Pasco County Emergency Managers require many of our schools to be storm shelters for families in our community. Based on information from the Pasco EOC, Tropical Storm Idalia is forecasted to impact Pasco County as a Category 3 hurricane, which means the possibility of storm surge for coastal areas, damaging winds, inland flooding, and widespread power outages.

The safety of our students, staff, and their families is of utmost importance to us. With the storm expected to grow in intensity before landfall, we urge all families to take necessary precautions to protect their homes and loved ones by preparing emergency kits, securing outdoor items, and staying updated with local advisories.

A list of storm shelters is forthcoming from the Pasco County EOC, and we will post that information on our website. There will be no breakfast on Tuesday morning at our school shelters, so please bring your water and snacks.

Please monitor our district and your school's social media platforms for updates. We will also send updates on our website and school messenger to your phones and email. Please stay safe, and we will ensure you are updated throughout the storm.

[sponger]

Spending today in Saint Augustine making sure the soffits stay on the house. It is humid as can be.

[FLLurker32]

Marion county schools are now also closed Tues and Weds. Special needs shelter opens at 5pm today. The rest of the school shelters open at 8am tomorrow.

[Iceresistance]

I have noticed that NOAA3 is higher than AF309, which may explain the pressure bias.

The altitude is 3151 gpm on NOAA3, and AF309's altitude is 1526 gpm.

[LandoWill]

If this storm comes in south/east of where they think it will, could be like hurricane gladys of 1968

[chris_fit]

Where has WXMAN57 been? Would love to read some of his thoughts here. Such a great asset to the community.