ATL: IDALIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[FLLurker32]

NHC taking every minute they’ve got to get the update out. I don’t envy their position right now.

[eastcoastFL]

Is the Yucatán prohibiting the inflow currently? Or limiting it?

[ScottNAtlanta]

Where has WXMAN57 been? Would love to read some of his thoughts here. Such a great asset to the community.

I would think he is pretty busy right now with his day job.

[Steve]

Where has WXMAN57 been? Would love to read some of his thoughts here. Such a great asset to the community.

He's been around and providing information. I think his colleague has Idalia where he was working 2 of the other systems.

[Michele B]

I would like to see a discussion about this....

I thought a stronger storm would move more poleward by nature, but a weaker one be more impacted by the currents around it.

This one appears to be poised to get carried away by the trough as it sweeps through. But it's also predicted to become a strong (Cat 3) storm.

So what do I not understand?

That isn't necessarily always true. A stronger storm will feel the steering higher up in the atmosphere, where a weak storm will be steered at the lower levels.

we saw this with Charley and Ian and it is why so many of us are afraid of another quicker and steeper right hook than where it is forecast

Ok, that’s the opposite of what I was thinking and also making me think this *might* end up like Charlie and Ian.

[ScottNAtlanta]

990 65mph per 10am central time

[eastcoastFL]

...STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
WEST COAST OF FLORIDA...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND DANGEROUS WINDS BECOMING
INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.8N 85.2W
ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM SSW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 305 MI...495 KM SSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES

[chris_fit]

As of 11am Tampa Bay is "Out of the Cone" - Of course that can be very misleading.

[Chemmers]

Wind shear has almost all gone, I think we will defo see it be more symmetrical in the hours to come

[Steve]

If Hurricane Franklin is moving ahead of schedule, what implication does it have for Idalia? Does it open up the door to run NE?

Here you go skillz.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/M ... HHMM.shtml

[psyclone]

As of 11am Tampa Bay is "Out of the Cone" - Of course that can be very misleading.

out of the cone but in the newly issued warnings.

[Iceresistance]

Lowest Extrapolated Pressure on NOAA3 with latest pass is 984.7 mb

[Michele B]

That isn't necessarily always true. A stronger storm will feel the steering higher up in the atmosphere, where a weak storm will be steered at the lower levels.

we saw this with Charley and Ian and it is why so many of us are afraid of another quicker and steeper right hook than where it is forecast

Charlie was years and years ago, Ian had warning signs, models drifting south with one standout that kept the official track too far north. This time tracks are grouped and no steady drifting. Regardless, if you live on the Florida coast nothing should surprise you.

It’s not a matter of surprise. As you can see in my sig line, I’ve been through a few storms but the level of preparation for a glancing blow as opposed to a full on assault from a Cat 3 or 4 is a whole other animal.

We had to move to a mobile in an Old Farts park, so we will button up as well as we can and sit tight if it’s going to the big bend, but we would SKEEDADDLE if it’s heading our way.

[zzzh]

There is definitely something wrong with NOAA pressure readings. Drops and pressure from AF plane suggest that the pressure should be around 989mb.

[Iceresistance]

There is definitely something wrong with NOAA pressure readings. Drops and pressure from AF plane suggest that the pressure should be around 989mb.

Yeah, there is a 6-7 mb difference between the two planes.

[tolakram]

There is definitely something wrong with NOAA pressure readings. Drops and pressure from AF plane suggest that the pressure should be around 989mb.

It's been this way as long as I can remember. NHC probably has a conversion rate built in.

[LandoWill]

Seems track stayed the same. swfmud not updating any new

[Airboy]

There is definitely something wrong with NOAA pressure readings. Drops and pressure from AF plane suggest that the pressure should be around 989mb.

It have always been like that for the last couple of years, NOAA planes always have it 3-4 mb too low at least.

[chris_fit]

Looking extremely sloppy on radar. Not surprised pressure went up in the last advisory.

[chris_fit]

Can see the slight track change on the SWFLMD Radar