SIO: FREDDY - Remnants

[aspen]

TXXS26 KNES 191829
TCSSIO
CCA

A. 11S (FREDDY)

B. 19/1730Z

C. 17.6S

D. 62.5E

E. ONE/MET-9

F. T6.5/6.5

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...COR FOR TYPO. LARGE STADIUM-EFFECT WMG EYE SURROUNDED
BY W AND EMBEDDED IN B RESULTS IN AN E# OF 5.5 WITH EADJ +1.0 FOR
A DT OF 6.5. OUTSTANDING SATELLITE PRESENTATION. ANNULAR STRUCTURE
CONTINUES. POLEWARD AND EQUATORIAL UPR-LVL OUTFLOW CHANNELS BECMG MORE
DEFINED. EYE TEMP +20 C. MET=6.5 AND PT=7.0. FT BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...KONON

I don’t think I’ve ever seen one of this Dvorak reports mention a standout effect before. Interesting that they decided to mention it.

[cycloneye]

JTWC to cat 5 once again.

SH, 11, 2023021918, , BEST, 0, 177S, 624E, 140, 926, ST

[Teban54]

This thing really is the SHEM’s equivalent of Irma, with the very long track, ACE machine, fluctuating intensity especially at the start and two separate C5 peaks. Insane.

We can add land impacts to the list, sadly.

[cycloneye]

You wont see it better than this.

[ElectricStorm]

You wont see it better than this.

https://i.imgur.com/DgbwkWH.jpg

Wow that eye is pretty much perfect

[Hurricane2022]

You wont see it better than this.

https://i.imgur.com/DgbwkWH.jpg

145 kt is likely the best estimate now for Freddy.
What a perfect but deadly cyclone..

[Hurricane2022]

Cyclone Freddy is pretty stable now. It could still intensify a little more before starting to weaken as it runs towards Madagascar.

[al78]

The satellite imagery is beautiful, but of course that hides the very high destruction potential.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/BenCohenTC/status/1627454218599649280

[cycloneye]

Down to 150 mph.

SH, 11, 2023022000, , BEST, 0, 181S, 607E, 130, 936, ST

[cycloneye]

[mrbagyo]

[weeniepatrol]

WOW.

[ChrisH-UK]

Intense Cyclone Freddy as of 0800 utc

[cycloneye]

INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE number 7

(FREDDY)

Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 205 km/h.

Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 285 km/h.

Estimated pressure at the center: 939 hPa.

Position on February 20 at 1 p.m. local: 18.6 South / 57.7 East.

Distance from the Reunion coast: 330 km to the sector: NORTH-EAST

Distance from Mayotte: 1490 km to the sector: EAST-SOUTH-EAST

Movement: WEST, at 31 km/h.

System Information:

- FREDDY weakened slightly during the night and was downgraded to Tropical Cyclone Intense (CTI). It evolves a little more than 150 km northeast of Mauritius.

- This powerful and compact cyclone generates extreme winds near its center, but the zone of influence of the cyclone remains small: few effects felt beyond 200 km from the center.

- On a trajectory oriented west-south-west, FREDDY will approach the Mascarenes from the north-east with a passage off the north-north-west of Mauritius on Monday afternoon and Reunion at the end of the evening of Monday. According to the preferred scenario, the crossing distance to the sister islands should be between 100 and 200 km for Mauritius and between 150 and 200 km for Reunion.

- For Réunion and Mauritius, this passage should cause a rapid and significant deterioration in meteorological conditions (strong winds and dangerous seas in particular) but not exposing the land to the most dangerous zone located in the heart of the cyclone. Nevertheless, given the short-term uncertainties, a more pessimistic scenario with a passage closer to the islands cannot yet be completely ruled out. The improvement is taking shape quickly on Tuesday.

- A landfall on the eastern coast of Madagascar is scheduled for Tuesday evening at a stage that is still probably intense, generating locally devastating winds and a very dangerous sea state near the impact zone. The location of the landing zone has yet to be determined, but should probably be between Mahanoro and Mananjary.

- At the end of the week, FREDDY after crossing Madagascar could come out in the Mozambique Channel and strengthen again before landing in Mozambique. However, the location of the landing zone and the intensity of the system at this time remain to be specified.

- Given the potential danger associated with this system, it is recommended that the inhabitants of the Mascarenes, Madagascar and Mozambique closely follow the evolution of FREDDY and stay tuned to the instructions of the local authorities.

[Foxfires]

Down to 150 mph.

SH, 11, 2023022000, , BEST, 0, 181S, 607E, 130, 936, ST

Could you provide me a link to where this data is from? Thank you in advance.

[cycloneye]

Down to 150 mph.

SH, 11, 2023022000, , BEST, 0, 181S, 607E, 130, 936, ST

Could you provide me a link to where this data is from? Thank you in advance.

Two links, one from all the areas and the other about Freddy's best track.

https://syoung.x10.mx/satellite/chrome/ ... qaPuJfbBII

https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/A ... 112023.dat

[cycloneye]

Looks like another replacement cycle comming and that will not be good for Madagascar because it expands.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/DrJeffMasters/status/1627715072150601768

[Hurricane2022]

MFR forecast is showing Freddy re-intensifying to VITC status.