ATL: IDALIA - Models

[toad strangler]

Almost all guidance the past 24 hours, even with the swings, has been within the NHC cherry zone. Nothing seemingly amiss yet. That S to N approach is very sensitive in regards to the shape of the eastern GOM coast.

[jlauderdal]

Almost all guidance the past 24 hours, even with the swings, has been within the NHC cherry zone. Nothing seemingly amiss yet. That S to N approach is very sensitive in regards to the shape of the eastern GOM coast.

Toad makes a good point, very small deviations now make a big difference over time as to who gets the "core"...2 hours of motion "off-track" and you have to do a new track.

[Blown Away]

06z HWRF… Way E into Ft Myers and across the peninsula.

[caneman]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/pXzhqdFh/hwrf-mslp-wind-93-L-fh18-99.gif [/url]
06z HWRF… Way E into Ft Myers and across the peninsula.

That looks like an absolute out to lunch run. I see nothing in the synoptics that would cause this to take off due NE. Further, based on buoy pressure drops, their center seems way West

[tolakram]

Hurricane model landfalls.









Globals

[SFLcane]

Ok what’s going on in here?

[lsuhurricane]

06z Euro is about 50 miles west of the 0z run at the same time stamp (90 vs 96 hours)

[kevin]

Lol all we know is that it's probably a Florida landfall. But besides that it's still a big question mark.

[jlauderdal]

Ok what’s going on in here?

https://i.postimg.cc/cJs4KqgD/IMG-7504.gif

Lake Worth power outages in that setup

[skillz305]

I’d say the HWRF is an extreme outlier but honestly nobody can pinpoint this down right now. We just don’t know. Everyone should be Hurricane prepped already regardless of location in Florida.

[SFLcane]

Hwrf isn’t the only model moving over Cuba.

 https://twitter.com/ericburriswesh/status/1695389267583783097

[Ianswfl]

Hwrf isn’t the only model moving over Cuba.

https://twitter.com/ericburriswesh/status/1695389267583783097?s=46&t=sStb56JhzYdUjITqDzKFmQ

And stronger too!! Looks like it likes the mlc better! That lath would probably be towards tampa down to sarasota.

[cycloneye]

The hurricane models more to the right at 12z.

[NDG]

06z Euro shifted to the west and a little slower.

[Spacecoast]

6z EPS... Slight shift west

[robbielyn]

The hurricane models more to the right at 12z.

https://i.imgur.com/mRqMVbu.png

Ukmet likes Appalachicola. It was spot on with Ian and Irma

[gatorcane]

12Z ICON stronger and brushes Tampa:

[jlauderdal]

The hurricane models more to the right at 12z.

https://i.imgur.com/mRqMVbu.png

Unmet likes Panama City. It was spot on with Ian and Irma

The UKMet was good too

[Jr0d]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/pXzhqdFh/hwrf-mslp-wind-93-L-fh18-99.gif [/url]
06z HWRF… Way E into Ft Myers and across the peninsula.

Out to lunch for sure. This would mean the landfall in the Keys as a strengthening hurricane.

While highly unlikely, this could get left behind off the SE CONUS and then pushed SW back into Florida as high pressure builds in...so 3 potential landfalls in Florida. I think it was the Euro showing it being left off the SE CONUS as high pressure starts to build to its northeast.

[chris_fit]

12Z GFS running. No drastic changes through 54 hours... keeps it in the same spot, roughly where it is now.