EPAC: JOVA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[aspen]

155 mph

EP, 11, 2023090700, , BEST, 0, 153N, 1124W, 135, 933, HU

JTWC would likely classify this as a C5 STY...

Not sure about that. They never upgraded Saola to a Cat 5.

[Hurricane2022]

155 mph

EP, 11, 2023090700, , BEST, 0, 153N, 1124W, 135, 933, HU

No wayyyy


 https://twitter.com/xiaoqianWX/status/1699580348927984068

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

[Iceresistance]

Raw ADT now at a 7.7

[MarioProtVI]

155 mph

EP, 11, 2023090700, , BEST, 0, 153N, 1124W, 135, 933, HU

JTWC would likely classify this as a C5 STY...

Lol after their fiasco with Saola being “135 kt” despite easy T7 and spectacular presentation, I don’t think so.

[Sciencerocks]

I'll place the strength at 145knts.

[Ntxw]

I'll place the strength at 145knts.
https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img922/5977/dGaReL.gif

Outside of Pat, Rick, and Linda this is about as good as it gets. This is up there with Willa.

[aspen]

155 mph

EP, 11, 2023090700, , BEST, 0, 153N, 1124W, 135, 933, HU

JTWC would likely classify this as a C5 STY...

Lol after their fiasco with Saola being “135 kt” despite easy T7 and spectacular presentation, I don’t think so.

I’m floored at how bad satellite estimates have been this year. Adrian, Calvin, Dora, Saola, Franklin, and now Jova have all been under-estimated by satellite metrics that have had a remarkably difficult time with small eyes and/or not super cold CDOs. Sure they’ve always had this problem, but it feels far more pronounced this year. At least we had recon inside Franklin to confirm ADT was 10-15 kt too low.

[Yellow Evan]

Eye near 20C now. We are probably in the ~150 knot range now and probably only surpassed by Marie, Rick, Linda and Patricia at this point.

[zhukm29]

Jova will likely go down as a legendary EPAC storm, alongside the likes of Patricia, Linda, and Rick. Absolutely stunning - looks like a WPAC super typhoon.

[Ntxw]

Such a small, almost perfect eye. Pressures must be insane down there.

[zhukm29]

I wouldn't be surprised if this was in the low 900s or 910s, or close to getting there. Just as a comparison, Rick was 906mb, and Linda was 902mb. Hopefully we can get TAFB with a T7.0 fix (T6.5 right now due to constraints), so the NHC has reason to declare this a C5; if it looks like a duck and quacks like a duck...

https://i.imgur.com/JBeHGsF.gif

Such a small, almost perfect eye. Pressures must be insane down there.

[Sciencerocks]

150knts with a pressure of ~904mb's is my latest estimates.

[CrazyC83]

I wouldn't be surprised if this was in the low 900s or 910s, or close to getting there. Just as a comparison, Rick was 906mb, and Linda was 902mb. Hopefully we can get TAFB with a T7.0 fix (T6.5 right now due to constraints), so the NHC has reason to declare this a C5; if it looks like a duck and quacks like a duck...

https://i.imgur.com/JBeHGsF.gif

Such a small, almost perfect eye. Pressures must be insane down there.

Admittedly, neither Rick nor Linda had Recon at or near peak intensity (Linda never had it, Rick only after it weakened dramatically). Patricia was unique in that we have confidence in its pressure and winds.

[zhukm29]

[CrazyC83]

How high to go in the advisory? I would go with 145 kt with a pressure of 920 mb. Peak it at 160 kt (i.e., same as Linda, which was also slightly above T7.5).

I'd want to see a large area of CDG before going beyond that - there's a reason such is incredibly rare. The only clear-cut T8.0 in the Western Hemisphere ever was Patricia, and that had full CDG in its CDO.

[Ntxw]

I wouldn't be surprised if this was in the low 900s or 910s, or close to getting there. Just as a comparison, Rick was 906mb, and Linda was 902mb. Hopefully we can get TAFB with a T7.0 fix (T6.5 right now due to constraints), so the NHC has reason to declare this a C5; if it looks like a duck and quacks like a duck...

https://i.imgur.com/JBeHGsF.gif

Such a small, almost perfect eye. Pressures must be insane down there.

Admittedly, neither Rick nor Linda had Recon at or near peak intensity (Linda never had it, Rick only after it weakened dramatically). Patricia was unique in that we have confidence in its pressure and winds.

Odile was 918mbar and had recon, it's unlikely in my view Jova has higher pressures than that. There's definitely been some pressure failures with larger systems that struggle with eyes. But the tiny, perfect/mature eyes (discounting the pinholes at early stages) with large envelopes is usually a good sign of intense low pressures.

[Hurricane2022]

 https://twitter.com/VortixWx/status/1699588767734976675

[CrazyC83]

:Chit: https://twitter.com/VortixWx/status/1699588767734976675?t=TAvl9VA5AfLcxRmPZoHETA&s=19

Also, especially without Recon, it needs to be consensus T7.0 to go that high (or someone going T7.5).

[Yellow Evan]

ERC looming but we can probably hold off for a few more hours.

[InfernoFlameCat]

https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/733552978572869632/1149160017061216308/20230907.png

ERC looming but we can probably hold off for a few more hours.

Yeah, turns out cat 5 was in the books. nice call. I personally believe this is cat 5.