ATL: IDALIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[zzzh]

Wind shifted from W to NW at Cancun airport.

[GCANE]

4000 CAPE Infeed
5000 ahead in the GOM

Its going to rock

[NDG]

Cancun and Cozumel now reporting NW winds, pressure still slightly higher than what the buoy reports.
I don't think the NHC expected 93L to be this organized this morning, otherwise they would had scheduled a recon for this at least this afternoon instead of for tomorrow afternoon. I guess the models' forecast of the vorticity moving inland this morning made them make this call.

[Ianswfl]

Cancun and Cozumel now reporting NW winds, pressure still slightly higher than what the buoy reports.
I don't think the NHC expected 93L to be this organized this morning, otherwise they would had scheduled a recon for this at least this afternoon instead of for tomorrow afternoon. I guess the models' forecast of the vorticity moving inland this morning made them make this call.

https://i.imgur.com/fnzZcQ1.jpg

Very compact storm this is going to be!

[GCANE]

21.8N 84.5
IR showing high helicity with increasing colder cloud tops and a possible warm-core signature.

[wxman57]

Models have a deepening trof over the NW Gulf by Tuesday and the ridge centered east of the Bahamas. Perfect avenue to track NNE to the FL Peninsula. One thing to watch for is that early forecasts are almost always too far west in these situations. Could move inland south of Tampa on Tuesday vs. Wednesday. Fine with me. It's going to be a sheared system with most squalls east of the center.

[GCANE]

19N 84.5W
Rapid development of feeder band

[NDG]

Very interesting 12z sounding from Cancun this morning. You can tell that the H85 vorticity was or is to the south while the ML circulation to the east. You can also see surface winds from the north indicating rightly that the developing LLC is to the east much closer to the MLC.

[GCANE]

Pressure turning south on the Yucatan buoy

[SFLcane]

Models have a deepening trof over the NW Gulf by Tuesday and the ridge centered east of the Bahamas. Perfect avenue to track NNE to the FL Peninsula. One thing to watch for is that early forecasts are almost always too far west in these situations. Could move inland south of Tampa on Tuesday vs. Wednesday. Fine with me. It's going to be a sheared system with most squalls east of the center.

[SFLcane]

Models have a deepening trof over the NW Gulf by Tuesday and the ridge centered east of the Bahamas. Perfect avenue to track NNE to the FL Peninsula. One thing to watch for is that early forecasts are almost always too far west in these situations. Could move inland south of Tampa on Tuesday vs. Wednesday. Fine with me. It's going to be a sheared system with most squalls east of the center.

You always say follow the convention well I find it interesting most of it is drifting towards Cuba. Just an observation

[boca]

Models have a deepening trof over the NW Gulf by Tuesday and the ridge centered east of the Bahamas. Perfect avenue to track NNE to the FL Peninsula. One thing to watch for is that early forecasts are almost always too far west in these situations. Could move inland south of Tampa on Tuesday vs. Wednesday. Fine with me. It's going to be a sheared system with most squalls east of the center.

Most of the models have a Florida panhandle or big bend hit is that trough going to be that strong to force 93 L south of Tampa?

[otowntiger]

Models have a deepening trof over the NW Gulf by Tuesday and the ridge centered east of the Bahamas. Perfect avenue to track NNE to the FL Peninsula. One thing to watch for is that early forecasts are almost always too far west in these situations. Could move inland south of Tampa on Tuesday vs. Wednesday. Fine with me. It's going to be a sheared system with most squalls east of the center.

And in that scenario (further east and south landfall) would you also surmise weaker, with less time over water?

[hohnywx]

 https://twitter.com/JimCantore/status/1695442877436887354

[ScottNAtlanta]

This is going to be a nightmare for the FL homeowners insurance market. It was already getting hard to pay for, but even a Cat1 hit would throw that market into turmoil. That's not to say all the people that don't have it now because it is so expensive.

[robbielyn]

Cancun and Cozumel now reporting NW winds, pressure still slightly higher than what the buoy reports.
I don't think the NHC expected 93L to be this organized this morning, otherwise they would had scheduled a recon for this at least this afternoon instead of for tomorrow afternoon. I guess the models' forecast of the vorticity moving inland this morning made them make this call.

https://i.imgur.com/fnzZcQ1.jpg

Storms like to avoid land if at all possible.

[psyclone]

I'm sounding the "all clear" for tampa bay because it's always clear here. Look out Punta Gorda or Panama city! ( very slight sarcasm flag...and I mean slight). On a slightly more serious note...a peak season "slop storm" can pack a good bit more punch than a June mess. Hermine of '16 could be a good analog. That caused lots of water issues on the west coast and big bend. Definitely watching with interest.

[GCANE]

Good lightning in core and feeder band.
No other MCS around to disrupt its infeed.
VIS show all LL flow over Cancun moving west.

[NDG]

Models have a deepening trof over the NW Gulf by Tuesday and the ridge centered east of the Bahamas. Perfect avenue to track NNE to the FL Peninsula. One thing to watch for is that early forecasts are almost always too far west in these situations. Could move inland south of Tampa on Tuesday vs. Wednesday. Fine with me. It's going to be a sheared system with most squalls east of the center.

You always say follow the convention well I find it interesting most of it is drifting towards Cuba. Just an observation

https://i.postimg.cc/FsHQ61TG/IMG-7505.gif

I don't see that happening, I don't see a trough digging south and sweeping across the SE US on the EPS & GEFS ensembles as 93L lifts north, that's what usually causes the storms to track more east than forecasted. The short wave trough digs but to the west of the lower MS river Valley and stays in place as a ridge builds just east of FL.

[hohnywx]

 https://twitter.com/FloridaTropics1/status/1695450985236148735