ATL: IDALIA - Models

[NDG]

Nice adjustment by the 12z GFS, it also shows less shear over it for the next 48 hrs while it meanders over the same area. If it comes out of the Caribbean stronger than earlier thought it could build its own UL environment with the shear axis & deep layer stearings parallel to it.

[skillz305]

12z CMC initializing. Looks like a garbage fed run so far.

[chris_fit]

GFS Trend. 93l looks roughly the same, but look at Franklin. Keeps adjusting S/W - What implications will that have on 93l?

[NDG]

12z CMC initializing. Looks like a garbage fed run so far.

Is garbage past its 48 hrs, very inconsistent with track and strength even with Franklin.

[robbielyn]

Ukmet likes appalachicola It was spot on with Ian and Irma

The UKMet was good too

I’m bad at proofreading i typed ukmet but autocorrect put unmet. Also relooked and saw Appalachicola was the location not PC.

[chris_fit]

12Z GFS pretty much Due N entire time in GoM. Panhandle again.

[chris_fit]

12Z CMC gonna be a decent W shift from 00Z

[ElectricStorm]

GFS drops 10mb between hours 90 and 96 approaching landfall

[NDG]

GFS Trend. 93l looks roughly the same, but look at Franklin. Keeps adjusting S/W - What implications will that have on 93l?



https://i.imgur.com/9mtI4Pw.gif

It pushes the narrow ridge nose between it and 93L west or WSW, so does 93L.

[IcyTundra]

GFS deepens 93L by 10 mb in 6 hours right before landfall
don’t like that it could be strengthening on approach to its landfall in Florida.

[Blown Away]

I question the GFS when it’s ever modestly left of the Euro, which it is with 93L.

[NDG]

12z GFS back to almost as strong as yesterday's 12z run, landfall near Panama City. Definitely whatever could be pushing Franklin more westerly would also push everything more westerly as well.

[toad strangler]

57 posted earlier in post #166 of the Discussion Thread that modeling almost always error too far W in these setups with a developing trough to the NW and ridge off the S.E. coast. We shall see.

[skillz305]

57 posted earlier in post #166 of the Discussion Thread that modeling almost always error too far W in these setups with a developing trough to the NW and ridge off the S.E. coast. We shall see.

WX is usually right…. I’m on EC Central FL and still watching closely. I believe the models have some catching up to do when they’re fed this rather quick intensifying from this morning.

[LarryWx]

12Z UKMET: similar to 0Z with landfall E FL Panhandle and then NE well inland in GA: so two runs in a row that are the furthest NW by large margin

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 20.8N 86.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 27.08.2023 24 20.8N 86.8W 1005 20
0000UTC 28.08.2023 36 20.8N 86.4W 1003 26
1200UTC 28.08.2023 48 21.7N 86.3W 1003 29
0000UTC 29.08.2023 60 23.1N 86.9W 1002 31
1200UTC 29.08.2023 72 24.2N 87.0W 1002 43
0000UTC 30.08.2023 84 26.1N 86.3W 999 36
1200UTC 30.08.2023 96 28.8N 84.8W 996 48
0000UTC 31.08.2023 108 31.6N 83.5W 994 36
1200UTC 31.08.2023 120 33.5N 81.8W 997 37
0000UTC 01.09.2023 132 34.6N 78.5W 1002 35
1200UTC 01.09.2023 144 36.7N 74.8W 1005 39
0000UTC 02.09.2023 156 35.9N 73.6W 1006 40
1200UTC 02.09.2023 168 36.6N 69.7W 1006 36

[BobHarlem]

The real world satellite ir image right now kinda looks like the 12z simulated ir... except the simulated one it looks like is for 61 hours out

[Hurricaneman]

If Franklin is slower to move out than the GFS shows then 93L will probably curve east over the Peninsula

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/jackson_dill/status/1695473424569663853

[chaser1]

Nice adjustment by the 12z GFS, it also shows less shear over it for the next 48 hrs while it meanders over the same area. If it comes out of the Caribbean stronger than earlier thought it could build its own UL environment with the shear axis & deep layer stearings parallel to it.

Bingo. Was thinking the exact same thing given it's vastly improved organization.

[ElectricStorm]

After jumping around on the first few frames, both HAFS models keep the center over water for the most part. HAFS-B has a Cat 2 in the gulf so far, while HAFS-A briefly clips Cuba and has a strong TS