ATL: IDALIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Poonwalker]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/1144728610096292020/1145883199134760960/image.png


:Joker: And...here...we.......GO

That’s a wrap!

Appears to be a bit more east and is going over the tip of Cuba. Down the road effects?? Who knows, but we shall see.

I wonder if they will call it a landfall? Iam not sure the exact physics of it but I have seen land interaction cause a tightening of the convection. Almost a frictional affect perhaps.

[ColdFront77]

FLLurker32: WESH 2 in Central Florida still sharing that their in-house FutureCast model is East on the cone with hurricane impacts to north central FL.

jlauderdal: Eric burris will die on that hill, will see if it verifies

dukeblue219: These "in-house" models aren't anything special. They may guess right now and then, but I wouldn't put any stock in it compared to the big globals or even the well-known hurricane models.

FLLurker32: It’s their chief meteorologist, Tony Mainolfi, posting it this time. They’ll either be vindicated or bust big time. We’ll see.

The in-house model is used by all local television stations. It is the IBM GRAF (IBM Global High-Resolution Atmospheric Forecasting System)

https://www.ibm.com/weather/industries/ ... ustry/graf

[AdamFirst]

Cancun radar capturing the convection wrapping around the center. Just in range, as the Cuban radar is down.

[Jr0d]

Cuba radar:

http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB ... AXw01a.gif

[tropicwatch]

Nice blowup of convection over western Cuba.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1696329716599283961

[chaser1]

Well this was a fairly painless status check on things. Doesn't look like anything wacky going on in terms of forward motion. Looks like NHC has got a pretty firm handle on things. If greater shear were expected resulting in a pronounced eastward lean by the MLC, then i'd be concerned.

[Keldeo1997]

979MB extap and its not the center....

[weeniepatrol]

[hipshot]

SLIDER Proxy Visible: https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=conus&x=5307&y=6439&z=4&angle=0&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&maps%5Bborders%5D=white&p%5B0%5D=cira_geoproxy&opacity%5B0%5D=1&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&draw_color=FFD700&draw_width=6

Wow, that is some serious looking blow up of convection!!

[chaser1]

Okay, someone "refresh" their IR loop, and freeze that last frame.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Recon is right under that huge blowup

[tropicwatch]

I guess Cuba doesn't like us anymore. We were able to over fly Cuba for these systems.

[PavelGaborik10]

I mean, I'm no met, but this doesn't look great..... right over the center as well.

[FLLurker32]

Local news just announced Cantore is headed to Cedar Key.

[ScottNAtlanta]

I mean, I'm no met, but this doesn't look great..... right over the center as well.

https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/112d93f4e1f2365fbf9c262161501332cd31758e9f82dd792300b1392f948fd6.gif

Look at how it is spinning too

[hipshot]

I mean, I'm no met, but this doesn't look great..... right over the center as well.

https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/112d93f4e1f2365fbf9c262161501332cd31758e9f82dd792300b1392f948fd6.gif

I saw that on a previous post and that looks ugly!!!

[Teban54]

Very notable warm spot in the convective blob right at the western tip of Cuba. Could be just land interaction, but more likely a sign that convection has wrapped around.

IMO, hurricane very soon if not already.

[Lance]

I mean, I'm no met, but this doesn't look great..... right over the center as well.

https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/112d93f4e1f2365fbf9c262161501332cd31758e9f82dd792300b1392f948fd6.gif

Is it me, or does the western side look to be flattening out? Would cause a turn to the east sooner no?

[ScottNAtlanta]

Very notable warm spot in the convective blob right at the western tip of Cuba. Could be just land interaction, but more likely a sign that convection has wrapped around.

IMO, hurricane very soon if not already.

I dont think thats a warm spot since it is pink on IR