ATL: LEE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[sicktght311]

Wow this thread is pretty dead I guess it’s because the track is pretty locked into Atlantic Canada or New England.

Yesterday it would be a new page every 45-60 minutes. Today it was one page pretty much all day.

People on these forums hug model runs. With this still six days out, I wouldn’t trust the models at all. A 25 mile shift downstream can make the difference of 150 miles upstream 6 days from now.

[Cargill]

Quiet yes - but 1741 posts hardly constitutes "deceased". Lee achieved Cat 5 days and days before the likelihood of reaching the US - and like a Cat 5, it's hard to retain thread intensity over a lot of days, especially if not much changes. Things will pick up if Lee stays strong as it heads north.

[lajga]

Back to work day. I am watching it close. Hurricane Hugo wasn't suppose to hit us. But, it did. I agree with the prior poster. It is still too far out to know where it is going to go for sure or what it is going to do. Just about every storm changes their prediction track up to the last 2-3 days. Mother Nature is going to do what she does no matter how much in advance we wish we knew.

[HurricaneBelle]

Quiet yes - but 1741 posts hardly constitutes "deceased". Lee achieved Cat 5 days and days before the likelihood of reaching the US - and like a Cat 5, it's hard to retain thread intensity over a lot of days, especially if not much changes. Things will pick up if Lee stays strong as it heads north.

Personally I prefer quality of posts to quantity - if there's nothing new to remark on I don't need to read 20 posts saying nothing of consequence just for the illusion of discussion.

[MarioProtVI]

Lee’s appearance now reminds me of Teddy when it tried to do an EWRC at a similar size before it collapsed in on itself. Not sure if that’ll happen to Lee but based on recent trends I think it’s possible.

[aspen]

Wow this thread is pretty dead I guess it’s because the track is pretty locked into Atlantic Canada or New England.

It’s quiet because any chance of Lee finally recovering and putting on one last good show before its turn to the north has evaporated. This was its last shot and it ended up attempting an EWRC instead.

[Hurricane2022]

Wow this thread is pretty dead I guess it’s because the track is pretty locked into Atlantic Canada or New England.

It’s quiet because any chance of Lee finally recovering and putting on one last good show before its turn to the north has evaporated.

Maybe not...

[JBCycloneStan]

Wow this thread is pretty dead I guess it’s because the track is pretty locked into Atlantic Canada or New England.

It’s quiet because any chance of Lee finally recovering and putting on one last good show before its turn to the north has evaporated.

Maybe not...
https://imageshack.com/i/pmoYfudaj

Looks robust and the EWRC will complete and yet.... crickets lol.

[SecondBreakfast]

Massachusetts is dealing with flash flooding this evening and it’s been raining all over the NE for what feels like the entire summer. If this thing drops a lot of rain as it travels north this could be pretty impactful.

[Iceresistance]

Lee's Eye is clearing out during the EWRC??


https://s11.gifyu.com/images/S4xcX.gif

[Emmett_Brown]

Lee is currently moving WNW, but more of a west jog today. This motion was modeled nicely by the Euro a couple of days ago, and is a precursor to the turn N. Lee is definitely growing in size as predicted as well. This storm reminds me a bit of hurricane Frances in 2004. Frances was a major to the N of PR, and went through eye wall replacements, and never totally regained strength. But Lee still has a chance tomorrow to strengthen if he can sort the inner core. That microwave image posted recently shows he still has good structure.

[Teban54]

Wow this thread is pretty dead I guess it’s because the track is pretty locked into Atlantic Canada or New England.

I think it's more because of fatigue after what seems like an eternity of tracking Lee. Margot is getting even less attention despite being a hurricane now.

[SpinnerLover]

[JBCycloneStan]

I'm looking at the latest IR frames and it's hard to tell if there is more dry air infusion or a massive eye is clearing out...

[cycloneye]

AL, 13, 2023091200, , BEST, 0, 238N, 645W, 100, 948, HU

[LarryWx]

Wow this thread is pretty dead I guess it’s because the track is pretty locked into Atlantic Canada or New England.

I think it's more because of fatigue after what seems like an eternity of tracking Lee. Margot is getting even less attention despite being a hurricane now.

1. Margot, essentially a fish storm, will never get much attention no matter how strong it gets. Many don't care because it is boring to them when it isn't a threat to land. Admittedly, it is relatively boring to me, too, when no threat to land. But I like and prefer boring because no landfalls is fine with me. I prefer the relative boredom. But there's much less for a poster like me to post about. Examples: % of ensemble members landfalling in certain area and trend from run to run. The main attention Margot had been getting was probably mainly related to how it could influence Lee, which is a threat to land. Now that influence on Lee is pretty much known.

98L OTOH even though not even a TC will get much more attention as long as the chance for a landfall is there.

2. The % of forum regular posters from NE or Atlantic Canada is small. A storm threatening there is almost always going to result in fewer posts as compared to a similar storm threatening, say, FL, LA, or TX.

[cheezyWXguy]

I'm looking at the latest IR frames and it's hard to tell if there is more dry air infusion or a massive eye is clearing out...

No dry this time. Just an ERC completing as the last fragments of inner eyewall fall away. In fact, Lee has very good structure for how large its new eye is

[Teban54]

I'm looking at the latest IR frames and it's hard to tell if there is more dry air infusion or a massive eye is clearing out...

Looks like the outer eyewall to me.

[PavelGaborik10]

Interested to see if he can clear out that massive eye.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Quiet yes - but 1741 posts hardly constitutes "deceased". Lee achieved Cat 5 days and days before the likelihood of reaching the US - and like a Cat 5, it's hard to retain thread intensity over a lot of days, especially if not much changes. Things will pick up if Lee stays strong as it heads north.

Personally I prefer quality of posts to quantity - if there's nothing new to remark on I don't need to read 20 posts saying nothing of consequence just for the illusion of discussion.

What??? You don't crave the posts about the
Annular Cat 5 pin hole eye hurricane that's having an ERC
speculation???