WPAC: MAWAR - Post-Tropical

[Hurricane2022]

02W MAWAR 230523 1200 12.2N 146.1E WPAC 135 923

02W MAWAR 230523 1200 12.2N 146.1E WPAC 140 920

JTWC briefly upgraded Mawar to C5 but later revised it to 135 kt because it was too late for an upgrade

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/EarthUncutTV/status/1660986493610131461

[Iceresistance]

I know this is NOT an official estimate, but Force 13 has this at 175 mph and 909 mb.

For me? I have this at 185 mph and 909 mb.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

[cycloneye]

I know this is NOT an official estimate, but Force 13 has this at 175 mph and 909 mb.

For me? I have this at 185 mph and 909 mb.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

Where did you got that?

[Kingarabian]

It's a strong Typhoon no doubt but it's likely around 140-145MPH. Dvorak isn't even that high and we've honestly seen better presentations.

That being said this is a significant and extremely dangerous situation for Guam. I hope they're all prepared.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Radar says ~150 mph in the SW eyewall
 https://twitter.com/bobby_boyd1946/status/1661007722626818055

[InfernoFlameCat]

I know this is NOT an official estimate, but Force 13 has this at 175 mph and 909 mb.

For me? I have this at 185 mph and 909 mb.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

If this was in the Atlantic, then yes. The west pacific seems to always sport colder cloud tops than the Atlantic with storms of the same intensity. Also, it needs to maintain that presentation longer than 6 hours. It might be undergoing EWRC now though. ( I don't have access to radar atm)

[AJC3]

I know this is NOT an official estimate, but Force 13 has this at 175 mph and 909 mb.

For me? I have this at 185 mph and 909 mb.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

If this was in the Atlantic, then yes. The west pacific seems to always sport colder cloud tops than the Atlantic with storms of the same intensity. Also, it needs to maintain that presentation longer than 6 hours. It might be undergoing EWRC now though. ( I don't have access to radar atm)

Neither of those estimates are close to being accurate. Nawar's intensity is very likely lower than it was 6 hours ago. The radar presentation has significantly degraded and shows the eyewall may be open on the north side.

Sure, it's still a beast, but let's pump the brakes on these off-the-chart cat-5 estimates.

[Iceresistance]

I know this is NOT an official estimate, but Force 13 has this at 175 mph and 909 mb.

For me? I have this at 185 mph and 909 mb.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

If this was in the Atlantic, then yes. The west pacific seems to always sport colder cloud tops than the Atlantic with storms of the same intensity. Also, it needs to maintain that presentation longer than 6 hours. It might be undergoing EWRC now though. ( I don't have access to radar atm)

Neither of those estimates are close to being accurate. Nawar's intensity is very likely lower than it was 6 hours ago. The radar presentation has significantly degraded and shows the eyewall may be open on the north side.

Sure, it's still a beast, but let's pump the brakes on these off-the-chart cat-5 estimates.

https://i.imgur.com/teNujJ0.png

Sorry about that. I have no intentions to cause something like this, I am not used to trying to estimate WPAC systems accurately compared to EPAC and ATL.

And yes, the radar has a weakness on the north eyewall, so it's likely not a CAT 5, but close to it.

[AJC3]

Sorry about that. I have no intentions to cause something like this, I am not used to trying to estimate WPAC systems accurately compared to EPAC and ATL.

And yes, the radar has a weakness on the north eyewall, so it's likely not a CAT 5, but close to it.

No worries - just setting the record straight.

While the presentation on IR satellite isn't awful, it's misleading because it's only showing what's going on up top. Obviously Mawar is entraining some pretty significant dry air, which eroded the radar CDO, then worked into the core, finally breaching the northern eyewall. That southern eyewall is still a beast, and there's some time to recover, but if I'm in Guam, I'd rather have it look like it does now, rather than what it looked like before the EWRC.

Fortunately (a relative term in this case), that beast of a southern eyewall will stay south of Guam if the dry air holds sway to its north.

[Iceresistance]

Sorry about that. I have no intentions to cause something like this, I am not used to trying to estimate WPAC systems accurately compared to EPAC and ATL.

And yes, the radar has a weakness on the north eyewall, so it's likely not a CAT 5, but close to it.

No worries - just setting the record straight.

While the presentation on IR satellite isn't awful, it's misleading because it's only showing what's going on up top. Obviously Mawar is entraining some pretty significant dry air, which eroded the radar CDO, then worked into the core, finally breaching the northern eyewall. That southern eyewall is still a beast, and there's some time to recover, but if I'm in Guam, I'd rather have it look like it does now, rather than what it looked like before the EWRC.

Fortunately (a relative term in this case), that beast of a southern eyewall will stay south of Guam if the dry air holds sway to its north.

Satellite clearly shows a large dry slot on the NE side of the Typhoon, I hope it weakens this enough to reduce the impacts on the Mariana Islands.

[AJC3]

Satellite clearly shows a large dry slot on the NE side of the Typhoon, I hope it weakens this enough to reduce the impacts on the Mariana Islands.

Yeah, its presenation has definitely degraded on IR in just the last hour. For Guam's sake, let's see these trends continue.

[Yellow Evan]

It's a strong Typhoon no doubt but it's likely around 140-145MPH. Dvorak isn't even that high and we've honestly seen better presentations.

That being said this is a significant and extremely dangerous situation for Guam. I hope they're all prepared.

Maybe now but at 6z:



Clear cut T7.0 with 21C eye and it sustained for 3-4 hours with reasonably high symmetry.

[cycloneye]

This 15:00 UTC discussion came out late.

WDPN31 PGTW 231500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR
015//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 12.2N 146.1E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 135 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 114 NM SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 46 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SOLID
RING OF DEEP CONVECTION, A BIT MORE EXPANSIVE ON THE SOUTHWESTERN
SIDE, SURROUNDING A 12 NM DIAMETER EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE EVIDENT IN BOTH RADAR
AND GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 135
KNOTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON BOTH SUBJECTIVE AND
OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES AND RADAR VELOCITY DATA. RADAR IMAGERY
SHOWS THAT A SMALL SLOT OF DRIER AIR HAS WORKED ITS WAY INTO THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE STORM CORE OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, POSSIBLY
ACCOUNTING FOR THE OBSERVED SUSPENSION OF THE PREVIOUS
INTENSIFICATION TREND.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK AND SMAP DATA FROM
230753Z

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGING (STR) TO THE NORTH
AND EAST

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T7.0 - 140 KTS
RJTD: T6.5 - 127 KTS
KNES: T7.0 - 140 KTS
CIMSS ADT: 140 KTS AT 231130Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE
VWS: 15-20 KTS
SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: STY MAWAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR NEAR
SUPER TYPHOON INTENSITY FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE PRIMARY INHIBITOR TO ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION REMAINS THE
IMPACT OF INNER-CORE DYNAMICS, INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY OF EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLES. THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR MARGINAL
INTENSIFICATION TO 140 KNOTS OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS BASED ON HIGHLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. AS PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED, THE
SYSTEM IS TURNING TOWARD A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOLLOWING THE
FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE
PROJECTED TRACK WILL CARRY STY MAWAR OVER THE ISLAND OF GUAM WITHIN
12 TO 18 HOURS, ALMOST CERTAINLY INCLUDING PASSAGE OF THE INNER
EYEWALL. STY 02W WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW SOLIDLY ENTRENCHED FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STR THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD, APPROACHING THE RIDGE AXIS AROUND TAU 120.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK FORECAST GUIDANCE IS IN
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE ENTIRETY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD,
WITH NO NOTEWORTHY OUTLIERS, AND THE CURRENT FORECAST IS PLACED
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. AVAILABLE
INTENSITY FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATES LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL
NEAR-TERM INTENSIFICATION. THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST, ALL AVAILABLE SOLUTIONS LIE IN THE STRONG TYPHOON TO
SUPER TYPHOON RANGE. GIVEN THE ONGOING POTENTIAL FOR INNER-CORE
STRUCTURAL CHANGES AND SOME SPREAD IN MODEL FORECAST GUIDANCE,
CONFIDENCE IN INTENSITY FORECAST IS MEDIUM.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
TRACK 72-120 HR: HIGH
INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
NNNN

[Yellow Evan]

I know this is NOT an official estimate, but Force 13 has this at 175 mph and 909 mb.

For me? I have this at 185 mph and 909 mb.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

If this was in the Atlantic, then yes. The west pacific seems to always sport colder cloud tops than the Atlantic with storms of the same intensity. Also, it needs to maintain that presentation longer than 6 hours. It might be undergoing EWRC now though. ( I don't have access to radar atm)

Neither of those estimates are close to being accurate. Nawar's intensity is very likely lower than it was 6 hours ago. The radar presentation has significantly degraded and shows the eyewall may be open on the north side.

Sure, it's still a beast, but let's pump the brakes on these off-the-chart cat-5 estimates.

https://i.imgur.com/teNujJ0.png

We’ve seen plenty of storms with reasonably similar structure at peak have Recon (Dean, Jagmi, Maria, Bess) and even some with warmer cloud tops (Andrew, Dorian, Irma). Anything above 150 knots is probably a reach though.

From https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/wefo/25/5/2010waf2222375_1.xml#i1520-0434-25-5-1362-f03:

[AJC3]

The radar eyewall closed up on the north side, and it looks like we're having a little more of a northward trochoid going on.

It may have mixed out the dry air for now, which would halt the weakening trend and perhaps allow for some short term recovery. Let's just hope we don't see: 1) the northern eyewall intensify, and 2) Continued wobbles with a decent northward component. Regardless, Guam is poised to get raked pretty badly.

[InfernoFlameCat]

If this was in the Atlantic, then yes. The west pacific seems to always sport colder cloud tops than the Atlantic with storms of the same intensity. Also, it needs to maintain that presentation longer than 6 hours. It might be undergoing EWRC now though. ( I don't have access to radar atm)

Neither of those estimates are close to being accurate. Nawar's intensity is very likely lower than it was 6 hours ago. The radar presentation has significantly degraded and shows the eyewall may be open on the north side.

Sure, it's still a beast, but let's pump the brakes on these off-the-chart cat-5 estimates.

https://i.imgur.com/teNujJ0.png

We’ve seen plenty of storms with reasonably similar structure at peak have Recon (Dean, Jagmi, Maria, Bess) and even some with warmer cloud tops (Andrew, Dorian, Irma). Anything above 150 knots is probably a reach though.

From https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/wefo/25/5/2010waf2222375_1.xml#i1520-0434-25-5-1362-f03:

https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/619419338151034911/1110593174595981372/IMG_6775.jpg

Right, but it wasn’t sustained for long enough for the winds to catch up to that IR presentation. Irma maintained a phenomenal structure for days.

[Hurricane2022]

 https://twitter.com/RusseGonzalez/status/1661039099279724550

[AJC3]

https://twitter.com/RusseGonzalez/status/1661039099279724550?t=G-odqspNZqrObXsWbpi_qQ&s=19

He had to have meant "were both acceptable estimates for peak intensity at 07Z". I have no qualms with that assessment.

[MGC]

Looks like a moat is forming....so I'd speculate an EWRC is underway. Typhoon is only moving at 7 so there is plenty of time for Mawar to recover. Guam going to get hit hard I'm afraid.....MHC