ATL: BRET - Remnants - Discussion

[cycloneye]

NHC will initiate advisories on Tropical Depression Three, located over the central Tropical Atlantic, at 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC).

[wxman57]

NHC's first track will likely take it west and into the Caribbean near 15N as a weakening 40-45kt TS then weakening to a depression south of the DR or PR at day 5. Shear increases significantly after 48-60 hrs. GFS ensembles members have switched to the west track. Operational will follow.

[GeauxTigers]

NHC's first track will likely take it west and into the Caribbean near 15N as a weakening 40-45kt TS then weakening to a depression south of the DR or PR at day 5. Shear increases significantly after 48-60 hrs. GFS ensembles members have switched to the west track. Operational will follow.

Is this bad news for St John?

[AtlanticWind]

Nhc brings to hurricane strengh

[NDG]

Score so far:

+AMO: 3
+ENSO: 0

[wxman57]

NHC strengthens it under increasing shear by 72 hrs. That seems unlikely.

[zzzh]

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
A. BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE AT 21/1800Z.
B. POSSIBLE NOAA 49 G-IV SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION AROUND
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE FOR 22/0000Z, DEPARTING TISX AT
21/1730Z.
C. NOAA 43 P-3 TAIL DOPPLER RADAR MISSION INTO TROPICAL
DEPRESSION THREE FOR 22/1200Z, DEPARTING TISX AT 22/0900Z.

[NDG]

NHC's first track will likely take it west and into the Caribbean near 15N as a weakening 40-45kt TS then weakening to a depression south of the DR or PR at day 5. Shear increases significantly after 48-60 hrs. GFS ensembles members have switched to the west track. Operational will follow.

[kevin]

I know I'm just repeating what everyone else has already said but the potential of 2 MDR tropical storms (let alone 2 hurricanes) in June in the Atlantic would be crazy in any year, but mindblowing during an El Niño year. I've been lurking here since Irma and have been a member for 4 years now and can't recall anything like this in all those years. Really interested to see whether this is an early season rush before El Niño slows things down or if we're really in for a rollercoaster this season.

[zzzh]

However, vertical wind shear is forecast to increase by most of the
model guidance around day 3 in response to an upper-level trough.
Thus the NHC forecast shows the intensity leveling off at the end
of the forecast, consistent with the middle of the guidance
envelope. This intensity forecast is also more uncertain than
normal, due to the differences in the model suite, along with the
aclimatological nature of this system.

[wxman57]

NHC's first track will likely take it west and into the Caribbean near 15N as a weakening 40-45kt TS then weakening to a depression south of the DR or PR at day 5. Shear increases significantly after 48-60 hrs. GFS ensembles members have switched to the west track. Operational will follow.

[url]http://i.imgur.com/u4TLbhS.jpg [/url]

That intensity forecast goes against the shear forecast. They will be lowering intensity in future advisories.

[Teban54]

Bret 2023 only trailing behind Bret 2017 for the earliest MDR TS formation, but much further east and longer-lived.

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1670808138948255745

[NDG]

NHC's first track will likely take it west and into the Caribbean near 15N as a weakening 40-45kt TS then weakening to a depression south of the DR or PR at day 5. Shear increases significantly after 48-60 hrs. GFS ensembles members have switched to the west track. Operational will follow.

The most that I see models showing at 72 hours is 22 knots of shear by SHIPS, that's not that bad.
The 06z Euro which keeps it the weakest shows only 10 knots of shear as it tracks over the Islands.

Edit: Maybe the dry air ahead of it might become the bigger problem as shown on the Euro down the road as it gets into the eastern Caribbean.

[aspen]

Doesn’t seem like Bret will have to worry about UL shear until early Thursday, if the GFS is to be believed. It could be within a pretty nice UL environment on Wednesday. That’s likely when it’ll peak. If it continues into the Caribbean, I think it’ll probably weaken a lot more than the current forecast shows, but if it takes the escape route before reaching the islands, it could get a strong poleward outflow channel and possibly weaken less.

[zzzh]

NHC's first track will likely take it west and into the Caribbean near 15N as a weakening 40-45kt TS then weakening to a depression south of the DR or PR at day 5. Shear increases significantly after 48-60 hrs. GFS ensembles members have switched to the west track. Operational will follow.

The most that I see models showing at 72 hours is 22 knots of shear by SHIPS, that's not that bad.
The 06z Euro which keeps it the weakest shows only 10 knots of shear as it tracks over the Islands.

https://i.imgur.com/1uf94NT.png

I can see strong mid level shear from this plot.

[NDG]

NHC's first track will likely take it west and into the Caribbean near 15N as a weakening 40-45kt TS then weakening to a depression south of the DR or PR at day 5. Shear increases significantly after 48-60 hrs. GFS ensembles members have switched to the west track. Operational will follow.

The most that I see models showing at 72 hours is 22 knots of shear by SHIPS, that's not that bad.
The 06z Euro which keeps it the weakest shows only 10 knots of shear as it tracks over the Islands.

https://i.imgur.com/1uf94NT.png

I can see strong mid level shear from this plot.

Not so much the mid level shear, notice the dry air in the mid levels the Euro shows.

[Weatherwatcher2018]

What impacts can we anticipate here in Barbados and when

[AtlanticWind]

This is organizing fairly rapidly I believe , should be a TS by next advisory
Wouldnt be suprised to see it exceed the NHC intensity forecasts in the short term(48 to 72 hours)
After that a lot of uncertainties.

[GCANE]

I am not too sure about all this shear stuff.
From what I see on GFS is a very large anti-cyclone in the central Carib as TD3 approaches the islands.
Of course this is at 250mb.
500mb winds are light and nearly the same direction as the trades.
If TD3 stays south of DR, strengthening is likely IMHO.
Also, water temp and CAPE are at record levels.
Big-ass hot towers will likely be firing off then which are known to push out any shear.

[ScottNAtlanta]

There is a nice hot tower going off currently right over the center. This will be a TS soon if not already