ATL: LEE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[CronkPSU]

the core itself looks pretty good for now but eventually what i assume is that moat of dry air that is wrapping around will mix in and really disrupt the storm in a few hours

[dukeblue219]

There was a scheduled USAF recon overnight that seems to have dropped. It's been a while since we had a non-GIV recon flight. Not that there's much of substance we might be missing, I suppose.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

the core itself looks pretty good for now but eventually what i assume is that moat of dry air that is wrapping around will mix in and really disrupt the storm in a few hours

The more Lee weakens before he gets here the better I'll feel.

[Sciencerocks]

[Kazmit]

Probably down to a cat 2 now

[CronkPSU]

Probably down to a cat 2 now

not officially yet at least...

Maximum sustained winds remain near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
gusts. Lee is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Slow weakening is forecast during the next few
days, however, Lee is likely to remain a large and dangerous
hurricane into the weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240
miles (390 km).

but within the next day...

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/1500Z 26.4N 67.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 14/0000Z 27.6N 67.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 14/1200Z 29.6N 68.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 15/0000Z 31.8N 68.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 15/1200Z 34.6N 67.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 16/0000Z 37.9N 67.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 16/1200Z 41.1N 67.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 17/1200Z 46.1N 66.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 18/1200Z 52.1N 56.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND

[wxman57]

Plane found 70 kts SW of the center, though there was a large gap in what looks like a moat. I doubt it'll find more than 80-85 kt wind NE. Definitely not a Cat 3.

[canebeard]

Lees's rain in Maine.
Falls mainly on my Nova Scotia Lox sandwich.

Coming during the peak of salmon season.

[wxman57]

More like 75 kts in NE quadrant. Could make an argument that there may be higher winds not sampled, so maybe 80 kts now. Not even a Cat 2. 100kts was too high, even for last evening. I can't see NHC dropping 2 categories from one advisory to another, so I bet they go 85-90 kts. Surprise me, NHC.

[psyclone]

Lee has long been undergoing an exchange of peak intensity for an increase in size. It's a huge storm and will remain so..

[bob rulz]

The process of going from a small hurricane with an easily-disrupted core at its peak to a massive beast set to be one of the largest TCs on record is fascinating to me.

[wxman57]

The process of going from a small hurricane with an easily-disrupted core at its peak to a massive beast set to be one of the largest TCs on record is fascinating to me.

A TC that is transitioning to an extratropical storm always has a much larger wind field. As a tropical cyclone, it's a little larger than average for the Atlantic Basin, but near average for the NW Pacific.

[bob rulz]

I should have specified one of the largest Atlantic* TCs.

And many of these cyclones transition into extratropical storms, but only a handful become these massive behemoths like Sandy, Teddy, and now Lee.

[wxman57]

I should have specified one of the largest Atlantic* TCs.

And many of these cyclones transition into extratropical storms, but only a handful become these massive behemoths like Sandy, Teddy, and now Lee.

It's really not so uncommon for a hurricane that transitions to ET to have a very large wind field, like Lee will have. When it happens away from land, like east of Newfoundland, no one notices. Looking at Lee's TS wind as a TC, it ranks in the top 10% since 1988.

[Sciencerocks]

[CronkPSU]

it is looking much better on visible and IR than it did 8 hours ago...weird, the moat is almost completely gone

[abajan]

[youtube]https://youtu.be/JV6dFVV9dAw[/youtube]

[galaxy401]

Hurricane Watch has been issued for Maine.

[HurricaneBelle]

Hurricane Watch has been issued for Maine.

Lee is going to be the Maine event.

[wxman57]

Careful with that latest NHC track. It illustrates the issue with 24 hr points during a gradual turn. You cannot just connect those points with a straight line. Landfall will probably be a little east of the Maine border, but not nearly as far east as the straight line indicates. Regardless, there will be no core remaining at landfall. Models are indicating only 35-40 kts as it reaches New Brunswick. Coastal New England will be raked by tropical storm force wind with strong gusts. With the wet ground and leaves still on the trees, there will be widespread power outages as trees/branches fall on power lines. Rainfall in eastern MA may only be an inch or two, though. Maybe 2-5 inches in SE Maine. That's a lot for up there.