ATL: IDALIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[aspen]

So since the two passes had the same pressure and somewhat similar spread of wind field, what exactly was Idalia doing between the passes? Not that I'm impatient...

I’m guessing sorting out its core. The VDM reported a spiral band eye structure, and the eyewall is a little messy on radar. The hurricane models show this’ll take a few more hours. I’m expecting a faster rate of intensification to pick up early this afternoon.

[GCANE]

The biggest CAPE gradient is around 25N.
I am thinking it will RI there.
Was thinking that yesterday as well.
Wait and see.

[SecondBreakfast]

MESOCYCLONE INDICATED ON RADAR - 360 / 10NM FROM CTR

What does that mean?

They noticed a rotating supercell 10 nautical miles north of Idalia's center on their radar. A good indicator that Idalia's circulation is capable of spawning tornadoes

This is what I am most worried about for my family in the Orlando area.

[sponger]

How many gulf landfalling storms have been underestimated in the last 5 years? I read some overnight posts once again thinking this won't be as strong as forecast. Fortunately I think most people on here are taking this storm very seriously, especially after last year. We can always hope Idalia will end the trend of hurricanes strengthening all the way until landfall, but I would not bet on it.

Nor the trend of hooking right early when they do bomb out!

[gatorcane]

How far east of the track is it, can somebody post a graphic?

[HurricaneEnzo]

Agreed. The center is going to wobble around as it establishes itself. I'm expecting it to wobble back West again and essentially end up right where the NHC had it aka overall motion. .3 does not a trend make sorry. And I may end up eating crow with more data but already looks like it may be fixing to wobble back west a bit on radar.

No way Idalia is moving straight due north this morning. I wouldn't rule out landfall closer to Cedar Key than shown by the models.

https://i.imgur.com/LBxCqTR.gif

It’s right on the nhc track convection can be deceiving.

https://i.postimg.cc/6qkNPGy6/IMG-7531.jpg

[psyclone]

I took a bike ride around upper tampa bay last night and saw no preps or evidence of evacuations taking place. The stores were slammed last evening though.

[PavelGaborik10]

00979 23512

979 mb 12 kt center splash, pressure pretty much unchanged from last pass

That's certainly good news.

We're roughly 24 hours away from landfall now, it doesn't have all the time in the world.

[GCANE]

CDO expanding in all directions and vertically layering.

[tolakram]

Oceanic Heat Content



Source: https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/storm.asp?storm_identifier=al102023

[NDG]

Just checked at the 12z soundings across the Peninsula, mid level heights stayed steady during the night and this morning, I expect no sudden NE heading by Idalia during the day today but every wobble counts.

[StormPyrate]

I really miss the old floaters that you could plot the actual track against the location

[sponger]

On the plus side, at least we have no other tropical systems do deal with, other than the chance of Idalia hooking around for another landfall. I am amazed at the complacency here in Saint Augustine. As if by saying it will be nothing will make it so. I have been preparing for over a week due to the strong probability of an active end to August. St Johns has not opened shelters and is in school today. At least Duval in Jacksonville closed for three days to play it safe. Lets hope we do not see another early hook. Apalachicola Bay is the best place it can land and I will be rooting on it to make it

[SFLcane]

No way Idalia is moving straight due north this morning. I wouldn't rule out landfall closer to Cedar Key than shown by the models.

https://i.imgur.com/LBxCqTR.gif

It’s right on the nhc track convection can be deceiving.

https://i.postimg.cc/6qkNPGy6/IMG-7531.jpg

It's verified east of track already .3 from the 5 am update

Meh it’s just wobbling still very much on track remember that high in the Bahamas will not allow for much in the way of east movement. Don’t worry She’ll be back to clean up whoever wasn’t affected in Florida.

[Mouton]

IMO these gulf storms near west fla coast seem to have a pinwheeling move to the east. Is that correct or is my recollection wrong? If it is correct might this more east side loaded storm veer east as it approaches the coast?

[tolakram]

I really miss the old floaters that you could plot the actual track against the location

CIMSS: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/#

Click on Idalia, or here is the link: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/storm.php?&basin=atlantic&sname=10L&invest=NO&zoom=4&img=1&vars=11111000000000000000000&loop=0&llval=OFF

[JaxGator]

The flow of rain and moisture since yesterday has been due north for the most part. Imo, Idalia being 14 miles or so off the forecast track was a slight east wobble. Have to see if that continues as the inner core builds. Watching closely from Valdosta, Georgia. Forecast atm shows possible Cat 1-2 conditions tomorrow morning while my family in Jacksonville will experience tropical storm conditions (as of the last NWS update). For everyone in the hurricane’s path, stay safe!

[TallyTracker]

On the plus side, at least we have no other tropical systems do deal with, other than the chance of Idalia hooking around for another landfall. I am amazed at the complacency here in Saint Augustine. As if by saying it will be nothing will make it so. I have been preparing for over a week due to the strong probability of an active end to August. St Johns has not opened shelters and is in school today. At least Duval in Jacksonville closed for three days to play it safe. Lets hope we do not see another early hook. Apalachicola Bay is the best place it can land and I will be rooting on it to make it

Leon County only closed schools for tomorrow. After school activities are only canceled today after 6 pm. This could be the worst storm in Tallahassee history and people are left with little time to prepare or evacuate. Many people live in trailers in this area due to the rarity of strong storms. The Big Bend region is very unprepared for this caliber of storm. I’m praying that people will take this seriously and take shelter.

[Iceresistance]

Is it just me or is Idalia turning a little more to the west with the convection?


https://s11.gifyu.com/images/Sg8Hl.gif

[HurricaneEnzo]

Cleary wobbling back west a bit on radar. Overall motion in line with NHC forecast.