ATL: IDALIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[fllawyer]

Cleary wobbling back west a bit on radar. Overall motion in line with NHC forecast.

Thought I saw this on radar in last few frames.

[TallyTracker]

I seem to recall a pro saying before to follow the storm’s thicker outer bands to have a general idea on short term direction. In this case the large bands are mostly on the north with some smaller eastern bands. Does anyone else remember this?

[HurricaneEnzo]

Yeah typical with developing systems. May be a little less pronounced as it gets better organized. The center is pinballing around currently lol

Cleary wobbling back west a bit on radar. Overall motion in line with NHC forecast.

Thought I saw this on radar in last few frames.

[NDG]

2 hr saved loop.

[NDG]

NE quadrant is the strongest.

URNT15 KWBC 291338
NOAA3 1010A IDALIA HDOB 26 20230829
132830 2409N 08457W 6965 03030 9849 +133 +142 318043 046 045 005 01
132900 2411N 08455W 6956 03024 9822 +141 +152 305039 041 045 005 01
132930 2412N 08453W 6954 03011 9780 +163 +144 305034 040 040 004 00
133000 2414N 08452W 6955 02993 9765 +162 +143 292022 030 031 002 00
133030 2415N 08451W 6950 02994 9756 +162 +142 289012 018 030 001 03
133100 2418N 08450W 6952 02989 9749 +166 +147 139002 009 022 000 00
133130 2419N 08449W 6955 02987 9741 +175 +145 138018 022 019 002 00
133200 2420N 08447W 6951 02993 9739 +181 +127 143027 029 034 002 00
133230 2421N 08445W 6954 02996 9744 +183 +115 141033 036 039 002 00
133300 2422N 08443W 6952 03006 9759 +177 +123 139044 050 054 002 00
133330 2424N 08441W 6949 03020 9781 +167 +118 140057 059 065 003 00
133400 2425N 08440W 6954 03021 9804 +154 +132 138057 059 069 002 00
133430 2426N 08438W 6955 03035 9824 +146 +133 140060 064 069 004 00
133500 2426N 08436W 6958 03038 9846 +138 +140 146066 068 070 005 01
133530 2428N 08434W 6966 03043 9869 +131 +143 151067 070 066 009 01
133600 2429N 08432W 6945 03079 9888 +123 +142 160068 071 064 005 01
133630 2430N 08430W 6944 03088 9908 +116 +139 148066 070 064 017 01
133700 2431N 08428W 6965 03072 9918 +115 +131 148066 067 060 018 01
133730 2432N 08426W 6958 03087 9924 +118 +121 155068 069 058 010 01
133800 2433N 08424W 6965 03085 9936 +114 +118 153065 067 056 008 01

[Extratropical94]

70 knots in the NE quad, pressure looks steady. NHC's intensity estimate is on point

[kevin]

Pressure still not dropping, but SFMR/FL now easily supports 70 kt.

[tolakram]

Last pass was 972.2 RAW, so I'd say still steady or maybe a bit higher pressure? Didn't check winds.

[Poonwalker]

The biggest CAPE gradient is around 25N.
I am thinking it will RI there.
Was thinking that yesterday as well.
Wait and see.

That's the latitude line I see as the critical point, if it goes NNE it follows NHC and the models. A NE turn and the entire west coast will be in play. Watchful waiting.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Hot towers wrapping back down the western half. it’s got it’s eye ready to go.

[Extratropical94]

Center drop:
00978 31010

978mb/10kts, still supports a steady 977

[cycloneye]

More details about the P-3 mission.

 https://twitter.com/MikeFischerWx/status/1696519306430050479

[Iceresistance]

Eye drop at 978 mb with 10 knot wind, closer to 977 with wind factored out.


https://s11.gifyu.com/images/Sg8KG.png

[chris_fit]

Eastward progression has stopped for based on last recon fix. Yes, I'm wobble watching.

[jlauderdal]

I seem to recall a pro saying before to follow the storm’s thicker outer bands to have a general idea on short term direction. In this case the large bands are mostly on the north with some smaller eastern bands. Does anyone else remember this?

Bill Kamal 20 years ago in sofla used to use that same idea, bill ran into some trouble with the law but he was very good at hurricane coverage.

[NDG]

Tampa's saving grace of being directly hit by Idalia. The narrow ridge between Idalia and Franklin has held beautiful during the night, Idalia should keep tracking almost due north during the day towards the upper Big Bend of FL.

[tolakram]

saved loop

[cheezyWXguy]

With that burst moving around the western eyewall we should see the eye start clearing some soon

[chris_fit]

With that burst moving around the western eyewall we should see the eye start clearing some soon

Might tug the system a little to the left too

[Iceresistance]

90 mph winds just above the surface, it will eventually mix down.


https://s11.gifyu.com/images/Sg8N0.png