ATL: IDALIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[dukeblue219]

Leon County only closed schools for tomorrow. After school activities are only canceled today after 6 pm. This could be the worst storm in Tallahassee history and people are left with little time to prepare or evacuate. Many people live in trailers in this area due to the rarity of strong storms. The Big Bend region is very unprepared for this caliber of storm. I’m praying that people will take this seriously and take shelter.

It's hard for the staff, yes, but parents can take their kids out of school today if they feel the need to evacuate today.

Planning evacuations and school closings is hard - there are very real tradeoffs for a lot of people when you do it preemptively. I don't envy those decision makers one bit, because while it seems obvious on one hand that everyone should get out and be safe, people do die in evacuations and people do miss work when school is suddenly closed.

They'll close school on Thursday soon I'm sure.

[Highteeld]

Northwest jog doesn't surprise me, but it does concern me. I think it could be a telling sign of the change in structure of Idalia, and how it's inner core is developing. I think it's related to the large burst of convection over the northwestern eyewall. That area has been lacking structurally -- until now. Theoretically, the northwest jog could be related to a very large amount of latent heat release in that quadrant of the storm, lowering pressure tendencies there, and a subsequent slight pull in the NW direction of the storm itself.

[GCANE]

Judging by those spinning towers, strong eyewall building is underway.
Good chance RI is commencing.

[HurricaneBelle]

The 11AM advisory backs off the very strong wind probabilities for Tampa Bay. While the 34-49kt probability is 95%, the 50kt-64kt is down to 21% and hurricane force is down to 3%.

[SunnyThoughts]

Up to 85 mph now. Raised to 125 close to landfall.

[Iceresistance]

https://s11.gifyu.com/images/Sg8ke.png

[Highteeld]

Dual hot towers. No lightning in the eyewall yet

[Ianswfl]

Nhc finally talking about it possibly looping back around in their 11am discussion!

[jasons2k]

Based on what I see today, Idalia treks close to the forecast. I’m not seeing a swing towards the coast yet. Encouraging news for Tampa.
The storm is starting to bomb though. Worst storm in recorded history for Cedar Key.

[Full8s]

NOAA has my area (just inshore) in Pasco County with max wind gusts of 47mph at 0500.

https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.p ... pe=digital

[psyclone]

The 11AM advisory backs off the very strong wind probabilities for Tampa Bay. While the 34-49kt probability is 95%, the 50kt-64kt is down to 21% and hurricane force is down to 3%.

Our hurricane warning is now a "legacy" warning as the risk of hurricane conditions has tanked...thank goodness. It would be nice if they would clear those as quickly as possible. we should have a ts warning here now instead..I am most interested in how much water rise we get and whether we have any tornado events as those non core issues are very much in play...especially with the expansive banding developing on the east side.

[underthwx]

Leon County only closed schools for tomorrow. After school activities are only canceled today after 6 pm. This could be the worst storm in Tallahassee history and people are left with little time to prepare or evacuate. Many people live in trailers in this area due to the rarity of strong storms. The Big Bend region is very unprepared for this caliber of storm. I’m praying that people will take this seriously and take shelter.

It's hard for the staff, yes, but parents can take their kids out of school today if they feel the need to evacuate today.

Planning evacuations and school closings is hard - there are very real tradeoffs for a lot of people when you do it preemptively. I don't envy those decision makers one bit, because while it seems obvious on one hand that everyone should get out and be safe, people do die in evacuations and people do miss work when school is suddenly closed.

They'll close school on Thursday soon I'm sure.

I don't blame anyone for hitting the highway out of the affected areas, plenty of room here in Texas, my door is open to anyone who needs it....

[Iceresistance]

After NOAA3, when is the Next Recon?

[Iceresistance]

RAW T# just shot up to a 4.

[fwbbreeze]

The NW jogs....even very slight can cause major implications downstream. A few more of those with any delayed NE turn could bring the storm extremely close to Mexico Beach/Apalachicola which was just devastated by Michael in 2018.

[Highteeld]

The NW jogs....even very slight can cause major implications downstream. A few more of those with any delayed NE turn could bring the storm extremely close to Mexico Beach/Apalachicola which was just devastated by Michael in 2018.

This storm is reminding more and more of Michael by the hour.

[Extratropical94]

After NOAA3, when is the Next Recon?

Two missions this afternoon, AF plane should depart at 2.45pm, Miss Piggy at 4pm

2. TROPICAL STORM IDALIA
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 73 FLIGHT TWO - NOAA 43
A. 29/2030Z,2330Z,30/0230Z A. 30/0000Z
B. AFXXX 1310A IDALIA B. NOAA3 1410A IDALIA
C. 29/1845Z C. 29/2000Z
D. 25.8N 84.7W D. 26.5N 84.6W
E. 29/2000Z TO 30/0230Z E. 29/2115Z TO 30/0215Z
F. SFC T0 15,000 FT F. SFC TO 15,000 FT
G. FIX G. TAIL DOPPLER RADAR

[jdjaguar]

just did rough plot of 11:00 projected coordinates and it looks to make landfall near Steinhatchee close to Fish Creek.

[REDHurricane]

About 23 more hours over water, there's a distinct possibility of strong cat 4 or even cat 5 at landfall I fear

[tolakram]

Peak surge forecast