SIO: CHENESO - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/Yellow_Evan/status/1615762821069025283

[Iceresistance]

Cheneso? How am I supposed to pronounce this properly?

[cycloneye]

Cheneso? How am I supposed to pronounce this properly?

The meaning of the name Cheneso represents compassion, creativity, reliability, generosity, loyalty and a love for domestic life. Is pronounced Che-ne-so.

[cycloneye]

Is now a severe tropical storm.

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

Just off the NE coast of Madagascar.

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

Has made landfall in NE Madagascar.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/VortixWx/status/1616068711781404674

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

This is the last warning for now but they may issue them again if it reorganizes in the Mozambique Channel.

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

Now just off Madagascar but let's see if it reorganizes.

[cycloneye]

12z ECMWF has a monster at Mozambique channel. Let's see if it happens that way.

[cycloneye]

Has emerged into the Mozambique Channel.

[cycloneye]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 08S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
19.0S 45.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.4S 44.8E, APPROXIMATELY 181 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 232211Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE PASS DEPICT
IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT
WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATING LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION DUE TO WARM (29-30C)
SST, MODERATE (15-20KT) VWS, AND GOOD POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW.
DUE TO A COMPLEX INTERACTION WITH LOCAL TOPOGRAPHY, A PERSISTENT NEAR-
EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH, AND TRANSIENT HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS TO
THE SOUTH, THERE EXISTS A MODERATE LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY WITHIN MODEL
CONSENSUS. HOWEVER, WHEN TAKEN HOLISTICALLY THE PREPONDERANCE OF
EVIDENCE INDICATES 08S WILL TRACK BACK OVER WATER AND INTENSIFY. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 22 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

[cycloneye]

TCFA.

WTXS21 PGTW 231400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (REMNANTS 08S)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 195 NM RADIUS OF 20.5S 43.2E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 231200Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 20.6S 43.8E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS 08S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
20.4S 44.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.6S 43.8E, APPROXIMATELY 222
NM ENE OF EUROPA ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
DEPICTS A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) LOCATED JUST
OFFSHORE OF THE WESTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR. A 231022Z AMSR2 89GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS LOW LEVEL CLOUD LINES WRAPPING INTO THE NAKED
CIRCULATION, AND FLARING CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE NORTHEASTERN
SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A NEAR-OPTIMAL ENVIRONMENT
FOR REGENERATION AND RAPID INTENSIFICATION, WITH LOW (5-10) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS), ROBUST RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND ZESTY (29-30C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SSTS). THE ONLY INHIBITOR AT PRESENT IS THE PROXIMITY TO
LAND. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE 08S WILL SLOWLY MEANDER TO THE NORTHWEST
UNDER THE COMPETING STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE SOUTH AND A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTH. AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES FURTHER INTO THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL AND AWAY FROM LAND, IT IS
EXPECTED TO QUICKLY INTENSIFY TO WARNING CRITERIA UNDER OPTIMAL
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
241400Z.
//

[cycloneye]

Models are very bullish. Here are HWRF, GFS and Euro.

[cycloneye]

Upgraded to TD.