ATL: CINDY - Remnants - Discussion

[Sciencerocks]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1670941991025405952

[zzzh]

ASCAT missed 93L and Bret, again.

[InfernoFlameCat]

That takes skill to miss both systems. . Anyhow, I think this becomes Cindy, and recurves.

[Sciencerocks]

[NotSparta]

60/70

1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL93):
A tropical wave located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo
Verde Islands continues to produce a large area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear favorable
for further development of this system, and a tropical depression
will likely form later this week while the system moves westward
at 10 to 15 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

[cycloneye]

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL93):
Showers and thunderstorms are gradually showing signs of
organization in association with a tropical wave located several
hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for further development of this system,
and a tropical depression will likely form during the next couple
of days while the system moves westward at 10 to 15 mph across the
eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

AL, 93, 2023062012, , BEST, 0, 90N, 328W, 25, 1011, DB

[wxman57]

ASCAT missed 93L and Bret, again.

The ASCAT satellites are programmed to miss any tropical system that does not have a clear eye.

This could well briefly become Cindy. Should turn north around 55W then weaken and dissipate.

[cycloneye]

2 PM TWO.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL93):
Shower and thunderstorm activity has diminished during the past
several hours in association with a tropical wave located several
hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. However,
environmental conditions appear conducive for further development
of this system, and a tropical depression will likely form during
the next couple of days while the system moves westward at 10 to 15
mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

[Hammy]

Lost internet for one day and amazing how suddenly unfavorable the Atlantic has become

[Hurricane2022]

So all models are in strong agreement by showing 93L recurving to open waters. It would be very cool to see it becoming a major hurricane as it drifts towards Atlantis...

[cycloneye]

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL93):
Showers and thunderstorms have started to redevelop after a
lull in activity this afternoon, in association with a tropical
wave located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde
Islands. Environmental conditions appear conducive for further
development of this system, and a tropical depression will
likely form during the next couple of days while the system moves
westward at 10 to 15 mph across the eastern and central tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

[Sciencerocks]

[HurricaneEnzo]

Have there ever been 2 simultaneous named storms in the MDR in June or is that uncharted territory? Another stout wave coming off behind 93L. This is pretty wild.

[LarryWx]

Have there ever been 2 simultaneous named storms in the MDR in June or is that uncharted territory? Another stout wave coming off behind 93L. This is pretty wild.

Not on record since 1851. The only other June named/tropical storms in the MDR east of the Caribbean that I'm aware of are Bret of 2017 (6/19-20), Ana of 1979 (6/21-2), and one in 1933 (6/24-7). Elsa of 2021 just missed as it formed early on July 1. They start to pick up a little in early July, but don't start getting that active til August, especially middle.

[wxman57]

I doubt if we would have known there was even one TS in the MDR prior to modern satellite, much less back to 1851. Looking at the visible satellite loop, I'm seeing a circulation near 11N/38W. No model disagreement on this one, it should turn north before reaching the Caribbean, followed by dissipation.

[LarryWx]

I doubt if we would have known there was even one TS in the MDR prior to modern satellite, much less back to 1851. Looking at the visible satellite loop, I'm seeing a circulation near 11N/38W. No model disagreement on this one, it should turn north before reaching the Caribbean, followed by dissipation.

During the satellite era, there have been only two on record prior to Bret of 2023. So, even with satellites, there have been hardly any E of Caribbean MDR storms on record in June. So, if there were to be a second one from 93L, I assume that you'd agree that it would be an extremely anomalous event to say the least.

[cycloneye]

AL, 93, 2023062112, , BEST, 0, 104N, 379W, 25, 1008, LO

[Sciencerocks]