EPAC: ADRIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

Very close to be TD.

[wxman57]

Very close to be TD.

https://i.imgur.com/f3i2dcP.gif

... or a TS. NHC should start advisories this afternoon.

[Iceresistance]

The first name is Adrian, sounds familiar...

[Sciencerocks]

[wxman57]

ASCAT at 16Z on US Navy site indicates 35+ kts. No core winds, but perimeter wind of 35 kts SE of the center. Definitely a TS now, maybe 40-45 kts.

[cycloneye]

And here it is.

Off the Southwestern Coast of Mexico (EP91):
Satellite wind data received within the past hour indicate that the
low pressure system located a few hundred miles south-southwest of
Manzanillo, Mexico, has become much better organized, and it
appears that a tropical storm is forming. Advisories will be
initiated on this system at 2 PM PDT. This system is expected to
move westward at 5 to 10 mph during the next few days, away from the
southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...near 100 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

Improved cirrus outflow and new CB near the center is likely to yield pressure falls. Inner core likely coming soon as the CB rotates.

[Yellow Evan]

EP, 91, 202306271800, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1530N, 10530W, , 2, 25, 2, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , E, SAB, AB, VIM, 3, 1515 /////, , , GOES16, LLCC, T, DT=3.0 BO CBND MET=1.5 PT=1.5 FTBO MET

[cycloneye]

Hello Adrian.

EP, 01, 2023062718, , BEST, 0, 153N, 1056W, 40, 1002, TS, 34, NEQ, 20, 40, 30, 20, 1008, 100, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, ADRIAN, M

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bep012023.dat

[Sciencerocks]

 https://twitter.com/AlanSevere/status/1673761356313657345

[Yellow Evan]

Remarkably rapid rate of organization for something so broad.

[NDG]

LLC must have reformed further south under the MLC, predawn it was near or just north of the 16th latitude.
Incredible how fast it organized despite some NE shear.

[Ntxw]

With the wild intensification, wouldn't be shocking if this became a major. Got some time left.

[Yellow Evan]

* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* ADRIAN EP012023 06/27/23 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 40 49 57 68 79 91 100 101 92 74 58 46 36 28 23 17 N/A
V (KT) LAND 40 49 57 68 79 91 100 101 92 74 58 46 36 28 23 17 N/A
V (KT) LGEM 40 49 58 67 77 92 101 103 95 78 62 50 43 38 36 34 32
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 13 9 9 7 5 11 10 17 30 29 31 26 28 23 17 18 14
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 4 3 6 1 -3 -1 -2 2 3 2 -1 0 0 0 -1
SHEAR DIR 40 27 23 60 27 17 97 107 100 98 87 72 69 69 71 88 96
SST (C) 29.2 29.0 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.0 28.0 27.4 26.9 26.3 25.9 25.9 25.3 24.6 24.3 24.6
POT. INT. (KT) 157 154 151 150 149 148 143 143 136 130 123 117 118 113 105 102 105
200 MB T (C) -51.4 -50.8 -51.0 -51.3 -50.9 -50.9 -50.7 -50.6 -50.3 -50.6 -50.6 -50.6 -51.1 -50.8 -51.1 -51.2 -51.8
200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1
TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 6 5 5 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
700-500 MB RH 74 75 77 77 76 77 77 74 71 68 71 75 76 76 73 70 69
MODEL VTX (KT) 10 12 12 15 21 24 28 30 30 26 23 21 19 16 15 13 11
850 MB ENV VOR 2 12 3 5 8 21 46 68 103 102 126 116 120 111 111 100 96
200 MB DIV 44 68 79 93 102 47 31 32 61 19 17 14 -8 -9 4 -24 -29
700-850 TADV -3 -6 -11 -7 -4 -14 -3 -3 0 -2 -3 -8 -8 -4 -5 0 -1
LAND (KM) 410 466 512 557 608 692 766 795 816 840 849 853 853 843 852 893 954
LAT (DEG N) 15.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 105.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 11 8 7 7 6 6 6 7 5 5 3 1 1 3 3 2 3
HEAT CONTENT 15 14 12 11 11 11 8 11 7 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 538 (MEAN=588)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.9 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 71.0

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 13. 16. 18. 19. 19. 18. 17. 14. 11. 8.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. -1. -5. -9. -12. -15. -15. -14. -13. -11.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0.
PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 4. 3.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 8. 10. 17. 24. 27. 21. 16. 13. 9. 5. 4. 2. 0.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3.
RI POTENTIAL 2. 5. 9. 14. 22. 20. 11. 2. -3. -7. -11. -13. -13. -13. -12. -12.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 9. 18. 28. 39. 51. 60. 61. 52. 34. 18. 6. -4. -12. -17. -23. -28.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 15.3 105.6

** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP012023 ADRIAN 06/27/23 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.4 36.9 to 148.5 0.68 11.6
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.64 9.5
MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.6 30.9 to 7.7 0.40 4.7
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 81.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.82 -10.9
D200 (10**7s-1) : 77.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.57 5.9
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 5.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.86 7.1
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.10 0.5
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 3.2
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.80 0.1

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 53% is 4.3 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 37% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 27% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 33% is 5.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 19% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 22.8% 53.4% 36.8% 24.5% 13.0% 27.1% 32.9% 18.8%
Logistic: 46.0% 75.1% 60.8% 51.5% 19.0% 43.7% 13.9% 8.5%
Bayesian: 28.0% 55.8% 45.5% 37.9% 14.2% 20.8% 3.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 32.3% 61.4% 47.7% 38.0% 15.4% 30.5% 16.6% 9.1%
DTOPS: 30.0% 64.0% 65.0% 50.0% 24.0% 61.0% 50.0% 23.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012023 ADRIAN 06/27/23 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[Yellow Evan]

Mid-level NE flow likely to impart some shear on it tomorrow per GFS. I'd be careful with going major hurricane status for the time being but ECMWF and HWRF aren't as aggressive with this as of last check. A hurricane is a solid bet, however.

[Kingarabian]

GFS had it becoming a major a few days back but it and the other models have backed off since then. We'll see if it overachieves or not. Looks like it'll be interacting with 92E soon.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Adrian Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012023
300 PM MDT Tue Jun 27 2023

...FIRST TROPICAL STORM OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC SEASON FORMS...
...FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON WEDNESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.3N 106.0W
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES



Tropical Storm Adrian Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012023
300 PM MDT Tue Jun 27 2023

The low pressure system located a few hundred miles off the
southwestern coast of Mexico has quickly become better organized
since last night, in terms of both its center definition and
convective structure. ASCAT passes received a few hours ago
indicated that the low has a well-defined center, and the system is
already producing winds of around 40 kt. Based on this, advisories
are being initiated on Adrian, the first tropical cyclone (and
named storm) of the 2023 eastern Pacific season.

With Adrian's center only recently forming, the initial motion is
an uncertain 280/13 kt. A weakening subtropical ridge stretching
across northern Mexico over the eastern Pacific is expected to steer
Adrian generally westward during the next 3 days, but with its
forward speed gradually decreasing during that time. The
model guidance is in fairly good agreement during this period.
There is significantly more uncertainty after day 3, and Adrian is
expected to slow down further and turn toward the northwest and
north due to (1) a developing mid- to upper-level low west of the
Baja California peninsula and (2) possible interaction with another
weather system to its east closer to the coast of Mexico. The NHC
track forecast is close to the HCCA and TVCE consensus aids on days
4 and 5.

Relatively low wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures of 28
to 29 degrees Celsius are likely to foster strengthening. In fact,
some of the rapid intensification (RI) indices suggest that RI could
occur, and the NHC forecast shows fast strengthening during the
next couple of days. In general, the official intensity forecast
is above the intensities of the hurricane regional models since
they don't seem to be initializing the storm's structure very well.
Model guidance suggests that moderate to strong easterly shear
could develop over Adrian in about 3 days, with the storm also
reaching cooler waters by around days 4 and 5. Therefore, weakening
is indicated in the forecast toward the end of the forecast period.

Adrian's genesis marks the second-lastest formation of the first
named storm during the eastern Pacific hurricane season, after
Tropical Storm Agatha of 2016 which formed on July 2.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/2100Z 15.3N 106.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 28/0600Z 15.4N 107.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 28/1800Z 15.4N 108.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 29/0600Z 15.5N 110.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 29/1800Z 15.6N 111.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 30/0600Z 15.8N 112.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 30/1800Z 16.0N 113.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 01/1800Z 16.4N 115.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 02/1800Z 17.3N 115.0W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

[Yellow Evan]

[Hurricane2022]

https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/733552978572869632/1123358639374204938/20230627.2009.n20.183bt.01E.ADRIAN.40kts.1002mb.15.3N.105.6W.100pc.jpg

[Iceresistance]

https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/733552978572869632/1123358639374204938/20230627.2009.n20.183bt.01E.ADRIAN.40kts.1002mb.15.3N.105.6W.100pc.jpg

https://imageshack.com/i/pnFmMx1Xj

Is that an eye structure already?