WPAC: DORA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Yellow Evan]

* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP962023 07/30/23 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 37 42 49 61 76 86 92 92 93 96 99 99 100 98 97
V (KT) LAND 30 34 37 42 49 61 76 86 92 92 93 96 99 99 100 98 97
V (KT) LGEM 30 33 36 40 45 57 72 86 94 96 98 102 106 107 102 97 92
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 9 7 7 11 11 16 11 11 12 14 14 11 11 6 3 0 7
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 -2 -3 -3 -2 0 0 -1 0 -3 -1 2 2 5 7 0
SHEAR DIR 117 107 75 62 66 64 75 35 30 50 54 59 54 110 113 177 77
SST (C) 30.7 30.8 30.6 30.5 30.4 30.4 29.6 29.2 29.0 28.2 27.6 28.2 27.8 26.6 26.5 25.9 25.7
POT. INT. (KT) 173 173 172 171 170 170 161 157 156 148 141 148 144 132 130 123 121
200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.4 -51.5 -51.6 -51.6 -51.7 -51.5 -51.4 -51.2 -51.1 -51.3 -51.2 -51.2 -51.4 -51.7 -51.6 -51.7
200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.0 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.5
TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 7 9 8 8 8 7 6 6 6 5 4 4 4 3
700-500 MB RH 74 74 74 73 73 73 71 66 65 65 63 62 61 56 53 49 45
MODEL VTX (KT) 4 4 4 5 7 8 13 15 18 19 20 23 24 25 26 25 24
850 MB ENV VOR 2 18 3 0 4 1 17 20 21 19 39 65 63 79 86 103 101
200 MB DIV 42 26 32 36 39 28 64 -8 16 -4 -18 -18 -16 -16 -6 -27 -13
700-850 TADV 2 1 -1 -1 1 -5 3 -7 -3 -1 -1 -2 0 -1 0 -1 -6
LAND (KM) 255 312 341 386 426 503 605 761 938 1059 1262 1484 1714 1974 2214 2381 2111
LAT (DEG N) 13.8 13.9 14.0 14.1 14.3 14.5 14.8 14.8 14.9 14.8 14.6 14.5 14.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 98.5 100.0 101.2 102.4 103.5 105.9 108.1 110.3 112.8 115.3 118.2 121.1 124.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 15 13 12 11 11 11 11 11 12 14 14 15 15 15 14 12 13
HEAT CONTENT 45 45 44 47 48 35 22 29 25 11 8 12 9 1 1 0 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 465 (MEAN=588)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.7 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 33.9

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4.
SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 0. 6. 14. 22. 29. 34. 38. 42. 46. 48. 50. 51. 51.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 2. 4. 6.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 5. 3. 2. 1.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 3.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 9. 14. 19. 20. 22. 23. 23. 21. 20. 18. 17.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2.
RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 7. 4. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 12. 19. 31. 46. 56. 62. 62. 63. 66. 69. 69. 70. 68. 67.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.8 98.5

** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP962023 INVEST 07/30/23 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 141.7 36.9 to 148.5 0.94 13.2
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.9
MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.1 30.9 to 7.7 0.64 6.1
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 51.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.85 -9.2
D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.35 3.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.7
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.70 4.7
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 45.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.43 1.8
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 2.6
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.71 0.1

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 42% is 3.4 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 27% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 37% is 6.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 51% is 10.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 14.1% 42.0% 28.9% 18.8% 0.0% 26.5% 36.6% 51.5%
Logistic: 6.3% 27.1% 12.0% 5.1% 4.0% 9.5% 34.9% 41.0%
Bayesian: 1.3% 41.8% 14.7% 5.2% 3.2% 11.2% 9.7% 4.4%
Consensus: 7.2% 37.0% 18.5% 9.7% 2.4% 15.7% 27.0% 32.3%
DTOPS: 2.0% 15.0% 8.0% 5.0% 3.0% 11.0% 30.0% 30.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962023 INVEST 07/30/23 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[cycloneye]

This is a very tight consensus.

[Kingarabian]

Strong ridge all the way into the CPAC. Hard to fathom that this won't be a MH as the Euro and CMC indicate.

[cycloneye]

Offshore of Southern Mexico (EP96):
Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization in
association with an area of low pressure located to the south of the
southern coast of Mexico. Although recent satellite wind data
indicate that the system does not have a well-defined center,
environmental conditions seem favorable for further development,
and a tropical depression is likely to form within a day or two
while the system moves westward near 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

[cycloneye]

Moving west at 270 degrees.

EP, 96, 2023073100, , BEST, 0, 138N, 998W, 30, 1007, LO

[cycloneye]

First clasification from Dvorak SSD.

TXPZ21 KNES 310013
TCSENP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (96E)

B. 31/0000Z

C. 13.8N

D. 99.8W

E. FIVE/GOES-E

F. T1.0/1.0

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...LOW LEVEL CENTER IS NOT WELL DEFINED. POSITION BASED ON
MID LEVEL CENTER. GREATER THAN 2/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 1.0. MET
AND PT ARE ALSO 1.0. THE FT IS BASED ON THE DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...TURK

[Yellow Evan]

* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP962023 07/31/23 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 43 49 63 76 86 91 93 93 100 100 102 100 99 96
V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 43 49 63 76 86 91 93 93 100 100 102 100 99 96
V (KT) LGEM 30 33 36 40 45 58 72 85 94 98 102 110 112 108 106 99 89
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 4 5 9 8 10 14 7 9 8 8 9 8 6 1 1 1 3
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -2 -3 -3 -2 -4 0 0 0 -3 -1 0 3 6 6 2
SHEAR DIR 105 39 52 68 61 70 67 43 18 35 59 58 75 354 217 145 94
SST (C) 30.7 30.6 30.5 30.4 30.3 30.0 29.2 29.2 28.4 27.6 28.4 28.3 27.2 27.1 26.2 26.1 25.7
POT. INT. (KT) 173 172 171 170 169 166 157 158 149 142 150 149 137 137 127 126 122
200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.5 -51.7 -51.7 -51.4 -51.9 -51.3 -51.5 -51.0 -51.6 -51.0 -51.5 -51.2 -51.7 -51.6 -52.2 -51.7
200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.3
TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 8 9 10 8 8 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 3
700-500 MB RH 73 72 72 72 71 70 65 64 63 61 61 61 58 58 53 53 47
MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 6 8 8 10 12 15 17 18 18 22 22 23 23 23 20
850 MB ENV VOR 17 5 2 1 5 2 2 7 14 19 52 64 70 76 73 85 77
200 MB DIV 16 14 18 25 20 26 37 11 6 -17 -13 -5 1 -21 -5 -23 -24
700-850 TADV 1 -1 0 0 -3 0 1 -3 -1 -2 -1 -2 -3 -2 0 -5 0
LAND (KM) 317 351 386 429 464 576 707 917 1033 1233 1475 1712 1956 2186 2393 2203 1903
LAT (DEG N) 13.8 13.9 14.1 14.3 14.4 14.6 14.8 14.7 14.7 14.3 14.0 13.6 13.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 99.8 101.2 102.4 103.6 104.8 107.2 109.6 112.1 114.6 117.4 120.4 123.3 126.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 12 12 12 12 12 13 13 14 14 15 14 15 14 13 13
HEAT CONTENT 44 43 47 48 42 28 22 33 14 8 15 14 4 3 0 1 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 490 (MEAN=588)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.9 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 35.3

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4.
SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 0. 6. 15. 23. 30. 34. 38. 43. 46. 49. 50. 51. 51.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 8. 7. 5. 3. 1. 1.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 1.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 2. 4. 7. 12. 16. 17. 17. 22. 19. 19. 17. 16. 12.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 7. 4. 1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 13. 19. 33. 46. 56. 61. 63. 63. 70. 70. 72. 70. 69. 66.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.8 99.8

** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP962023 INVEST 07/31/23 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 141.1 36.9 to 148.5 0.93 11.4
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.3
MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.1 30.9 to 7.7 0.68 5.6
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 62.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.84 -7.9
D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.27 2.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.5
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.67 3.9
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 44.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.42 1.5
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 2.2
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.52 0.1

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 2.9 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 25% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 32% is 5.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 50% is 10.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 13.6% 36.1% 24.6% 18.4% 0.0% 25.4% 32.3% 50.0%
Logistic: 7.8% 35.5% 18.0% 9.2% 7.0% 14.8% 33.2% 36.9%
Bayesian: 0.2% 18.6% 2.4% 0.7% 2.2% 9.7% 8.2% 2.4%
Consensus: 7.2% 30.1% 15.0% 9.4% 3.0% 16.6% 24.5% 29.8%
DTOPS: 2.0% 16.0% 8.0% 5.0% 3.0% 13.0% 28.0% 28.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962023 INVEST 07/31/23 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[cycloneye]

Offshore of Southern Mexico (EP96):
Showers and thunderstorms have changed little in organization in
association with an area of low pressure located a couple of hundred
miles to the south of the southern coast of Mexico. Environmental
conditions appear generally favorable for development, and a
tropical depression is likely to form over the next day or two while
the system moves generally westward near 15 mph, moving further away
from the Mexican coast.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

[cycloneye]

EP, 96, 2023073112, , BEST, 0, 141N, 1026W, 25, 1008, LO

[Kingarabian]

Euro and CMC still very weak with this system.

[Kingarabian]

Looks like the initial somewhat hostile conditions affect the intensity downstream. Which makes sense if this system was in the Atlantic.

[wxman57]

Only the GFS takes it to hurricane strength. Other models are fairly weak. Watch out when the GFS is the outlier. It develops every shower into a hurricane these days.

[Yellow Evan]

If the GFS verified, it also wouldn’t be the first time the ECMWF has waffled on intensity before. CMC isn’t much if any better in that regard either.

You are better off taking AAA soundings and try to predict how the system in question will respond to such.

[cycloneye]

12z GFS is weaker.

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

TD later this afternoon. Here comes Dora.

Offshore of Southern Mexico (EP96):
Showers and thunderstorms are gradually becoming better organized in
association with an area of low pressure located a couple hundred
miles to the south of the southern coast of Mexico. In addition,
recent satellite wind data indicate its circulation is also becoming
better defined. If these trends continue, a tropical depression
could form as soon as later this afternoon. The system is forecast
to move generally westward near 15 mph over the next few days,
moving farther away from the Mexican coast. Additional information
on this system, including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

[cycloneye]

Ready to takeoff.

[Yellow Evan]

Classifiable.

[Yellow Evan]

TXPZ21 KNES 311827
TCSENP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (96E)

B. 31/1800Z

C. 14.4N

D. 103.6W

E. FIVE/GOES-E

F. T1.5/1.5

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...CONVECTION WRAPS .3 ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF
1.5. MET AND PT AGREE. THE FT IS BASED ON THE MET AS LLCC IS NOT
CLEAR CUT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...KIBLER

[cycloneye]

EP, 96, 2023073118, , BEST, 0, 146N, 1038W, 30, 1008, LO