ATL: GERT - Remnants - Discussion

[USTropics]

I know it faces issues, but of the lemons, oranges and cherries it looks best, to me, of all of them. Hard to tell from satellite, but it may not be that far from closing a circulation.

It has a vigorous low-level circulation, this is evident in satellite imagery:


If you were to just look at the low-levels, you would say this area should be dominant:


But the issue is, if we look further up at 500mb (the upper-levels), it paints a different picture:


As this continues to gain latitude, the environment becomes unfavorable, and there isn't much there at the upper-levels to sustain it. You can see this in WV imagery as well as the 06z ECMWF sounding for the area this is tracking into in the next 24 hours:



At 42 hours, there is barely a reflection of vorticity at the upper-levels (the dominant feature is the area to the SW of 99L):

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

AL, 99, 2023081818, , BEST, 0, 134N, 450W, 25, 1009, DB

[NDG]

If it had more convection I'm it would had been upgraded to a TD by now or tonight.

[cycloneye]

2. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL99):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located roughly halfway between the Cabo Verde Islands and the
Lesser Antilles are showing some signs of organization. Although
environmental conditions are only marginally conducive for further
development, a tropical depression could form during the day or so
while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the central
tropical Atlantic. Thereafter, upper-level winds are forecast to
become unfavorable for any further development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

[Sciencerocks]

Looks like a depression

[cycloneye]

AL, 99, 2023081900, , BEST, 0, 147N, 466W, 30, 1008, LO

[weeniepatrol]

Appears to lack the vertical cohesion of an actual tropical cyclone.

[Landy]

Not sure why they're being bearish with this by maintaining 40/40. Clearly closed and has been producing convection for most of the day, albeit sheared.

[Landy]

Huh ????

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL99):
An area of low pressure located roughly halfway between the Cabo
Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles is producing limited showers
and thunderstorms to the east of its center. Environmental
conditions are forecast to become increasingly unfavorable for
further development of this system during the next day or two while
it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the central
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

[Landy]

Clearly nothing...

[ElectricStorm]

I mean it's definitely sheared, but the convection is there and the LLC looks to be closed so...

Maybe they'll classify it as a short lived TD soon? I doubt it but I think it's enough to qualify for a sheared TD imo

[Teban54]

I respect the NHC, but in my opinion, this is at least the second system this year that's clearly sheared but clearly a tropical cyclone.

[cycloneye]

2. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL99):
An area of low pressure located roughly halfway between the Cabo
Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles is producing disorganized
showers and thunderstorms to the east of its center. Environmental
conditions are forecast to become increasingly unfavorable for
further development of this system during the next day or two while
it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the central
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

[Landy]

[Landy]

Better than 30/30 but still bearish IMO.

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL99):
An area of low pressure located roughly halfway between the Cabo
Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles is producing disorganized
showers and thunderstorms east of the center. While environmental
conditions are only marginally conducive, a short-lived tropical
depression could form in the next day or so while the system moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the tropical Atlantic.
After that time, additional development is not anticipated since
upper-level winds are expected to become increasingly unfavorable.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

[zzzh]

STWO

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL99):
Updated: Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low
pressure located roughly halfway between the Cabo Verde Islands and
the Lesser Antilles have persisted and become better organized
this afternoon. If these development trends continue, a
short-lived tropical depression is likely to form this afternoon or
evening, while the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph
across the tropical Atlantic. Upper-level winds are expected to
become increasingly unfavorable by late this weekend, with any
further development not anticipated.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

[Landy]

The NHC realized their mistake. Designation at 21z seems likely.

[zzzh]

AL062023 - Tropical Depression SIX

[MarioProtVI]

Brief Emily maybe??