ATL: FRANKLIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Spacecoast]

06z SHIPS indicates TD is eminent
....

[Landy]

06z SHIPS indicates TD is eminent
https://i.ibb.co/dMT5TkB/ef14.jpg ....

SHIPS automatically assumes that invests are TCs at initialization.

[Landy]

Latest radar loop.

[Sciencerocks]

[ElectricStorm]

Surprised 7 day odds are still just at 40%. If it doesn't run right into Hispanola this could get a bit interesting

[Ianswfl]

Surprised 7 day odds are still just at 40%. If it doesn't run right into Hispanola this could get a bit interesting

Nhc keeps shifting it west on the two

[tropicwatch]

Surprised 7 day odds are still just at 40%. If it doesn't run right into Hispanola this could get a bit interesting

Nhc keeps shifting it west on the two

I imagine they will increase the odds at the next outlook and will probably schedule a Hurricane Hunter for tomorrow if it keeps progressing as well as it has been this morning.

[Landy]

[ouragans]

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (EASTERN CARIBBEAN - AL90)
FLIGHT ONE - NOAA 43
A. 20/1800Z
B. NOAA3 01BBA INVEST
C. 20/1630Z
D. 13.5N 66.0W
E. 20/1730Z TO 20/2230Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
G. LOW-LEVEL INVEST

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
A. ANOTHER POSSIBLE LOW-LEVEL INVEST MISSION INTO THE SUSPECT AREA AL90 NEAR 15.0N 69.0W FOR 21/1800Z.
B. NOAA 49 G-IV TDR MISSION AROUND SUSPECT AREA AL90 FOR 22/0600Z, DEPARTING KLAL AT 22/0300Z.

[abajan]

2 PM TWO excerpt:

A broad area of low pressure has formed near the Windward Islands,
shower and thunderstorm activity has become better organized since
yesterday. Some additional development of this system is likely and
a tropical depression could form by early next week while this
system moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, across
the Lesser Antilles and over the eastern and central Caribbean Sea.
Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is possible over portions
of the Windward Islands during the next couple of days. Interests
in the eastern and central Caribbean should monitor the progress of
this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

[tolakram]

SLIDER
https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=full_disk&x=13726&y=8372&z=4&angle=0&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&maps%5Bborders%5D=white&p%5B0%5D=geocolor&opacity%5B0%5D=1&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&draw_color=FFD700&draw_width=6

[tolakram]

[gatorcane]

Shear is ripping across the Caribbean Sea. If it were not for that, we could have seen some significant organization prior to interacting with Hispaniola:

[JaxGator]

Shear is ripping across the Caribbean Sea. If it were not for that, we could have seen some significant organization prior to interacting with Hispaniola:

https://i.postimg.cc/CxfncTkX/wg8shr-4.gif

There looks to be an anti-cyclone near or over 90L currently. Can help to act as a buffer against that shear over the Caribbean.

[cycloneye]

AL, 90, 2023081918, , BEST, 0, 130N, 605W, 25, 1006, LO

[REDHurricane]

Low level vorticity has really been ramping for up for 90L in the past 6-12 hours, probably won't develop before 99L/TD6 but it'll be up next

[zzzh]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1692985976543395909



40/60 seems low.

[Sciencerocks]

[zzzh]

Note the westerlies.

[cycloneye]

https://i.imgur.com/XCBFUTh.png
Note the westerlies.

No ASCAT yet?