ATL: TWENTY-TWO - Remnants - Discussion

[MarioProtVI]

NHC looks to make this POTC 22. I doubt it even develops because models have it strung out (toss out 12z HWRF with bad init). If anything, it’s best chance for becoming Vince may be when it nears the coast from frictional forcing but even then it will likely not be enough to satisfy NHC’s criteria of being a TC. There is also the chance they end up naming this despite not being a TC because of imminent impacts (like with Ophelia initially before it shed the fronts).


Edit: as soon as I sent this they sent the post out confirming that

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1725245273327415729

[Sciencerocks]

[ThunderForce]

It seems they're forecasting this to become a tropical depression later today and a tropical storm by Friday.

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

AL, 22, 2023111700, , BEST, 0, 156N, 814W, 30, 1004, DB

[cycloneye]

[Hurricane2022]

22L still has a very broad circulation, but it is clear that it is slowly getting organized. It will likely become TS Vince before colliding with Cuba or the mountains of Hispaniola and then heading OTS.

[Teban54]

22L still has a very broad circulation, but it is clear that it is slowly getting organized. It will likely become TS Vince before colliding with Cuba or the mountains of Hispaniola and then heading OTS.
https://imageshack.com/i/pnOkBP7wg

Regardless of development, that scene is something you don't expect to see in a strong El Nino.

[Sciencerocks]

[REDHurricane]

And there it goes... time to say an unofficial goodbye to the 2023 hurricane season, as PTC 22 appears to have fallen apart just as quickly as it tried to come together. Models as a whole surprisingly solid with this forecast in different ways -- GFS (despite its typical over-intensification bias) did a nice job with sniffing out the potential for a tropical system/big rainmaker to form in the SW Caribbean 10-plus days in advance, and the Euro, after catching on to the GFS signal, nailed its prediction of a disorganized, sprawling disturbance that just couldn't take advantage of the anomalously high SSTs due to an unfavorable wind shear environment.

[MarioProtVI]

Very elongated surface trough and chances are practically dead in the water now. Time to close out the hurricane season.

[ElectricStorm]

Looks terrible, this isn't going to develop and I'm surprised they forecasted 45kts yesterday. Looks like this will be the 4th PTC to not develop.

[Sciencerocks]

[Dean_175]

Doesn't look as good as yesterday. In fact, it looks more like a axes of moisture getting absorbed into a front more than it does a developing tropical cyclone. Models project that the circulation above the surface but below 700mb will continue to weaken and you can actually see that happening on satellite. No real reason to think that will get any better defined. It is also moving over three landmasses and will afterwards face higher shear and baroclinicity. I think this one may be a bust.

Still though: Cuba, Jamaica, and maybe Hispaniola will see continued significant rain- perhaps over 8 inches in some areas. It could be a big rain event for some of the eastern Bahama islands as well.

[Hurricane2022]

And there it goes... time to say an unofficial goodbye to the 2023 hurricane season, as PTC 22 appears to have fallen apart just as quickly as it tried to come together. Models as a whole surprisingly solid with this forecast in different ways -- GFS (despite its typical over-intensification bias) did a nice job with sniffing out the potential for a tropical system/big rainmaker to form in the SW Caribbean 10-plus days in advance, and the Euro, after catching on to the GFS signal, nailed its prediction of a disorganized, sprawling disturbance that just couldn't take advantage of the anomalously high SSTs due to an unfavorable wind shear environment.

https://media2.giphy.com/media/v1.Y2lkPTc5MGI3NjExbzR3ZXJycHJnb3k5OWwwM2VzZXk3c2YyODAxbDJhcjdhZXlndnl5eSZlcD12MV9pbnRlcm5hbF9naWZfYnlfaWQmY3Q9Zw/mTP67GYoj8pcjkAqKs/giphy.gif

https://media0.giphy.com/media/v1.Y2lkPTc5MGI3NjExbzVibjU4ODZsc2g5cDc3N2hnM2V6czV3cmNlYmUxbWtvMjJibTJkbyZlcD12MV9pbnRlcm5hbF9naWZfYnlfaWQmY3Q9Zw/3sq3xK2kH0DZXmL4YZ/giphy.gif

Another W for Wxman57.

[Michele B]

22L still has a very broad circulation, but it is clear that it is slowly getting organized. It will likely become TS Vince before colliding with Cuba or the mountains of Hispaniola and then heading OTS.
https://imageshack.com/i/pnOkBP7wg

Regardless of development, that scene is something you don't expect to see in a strong El Nino.

"PTC 22 appears to have fallen apart just as quickly as it tried to come together. "

THERE's your El Nino

[wxman57]

It doesn't appear as though it will survive the shear. Best chance of developing a LLC is when it merges with the front and passes Bermuda on Sunday. And so ends (hopefully), the 2023 hurricane season.

[MGC]

Yup, killer shear. Time for bones.....MGC

[MarioProtVI]

It doesn't appear as though it will survive the shear. Best chance of developing a LLC is when it merges with the front and passes Bermuda on Sunday. And so ends (hopefully), the 2023 hurricane season.

Even then it’s gonna be frontal so a moot point.