ATL: IDALIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[AJC3]

Part of the 5:10 AM NWS Tallahassee Area Forecast Discussion....

"You need to complete your preparations today if you live in the
Florida big bend. To put this system into the historical context,
there are NO major hurricanes in the historical dataset going back
to 1851 that have tracked into Apalachee Bay. None. Don`t mess
around with this."....

That's from senior met Don Van Dyke...he interned at our office (NWS Melbourne) some 15-ish years ago

[Kingarabian]

Looks like a pinhole eye. Would say it's pushing T5.0 now.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Is that a pinhole I see? Or close to it. Interesting, conditions must be quite favorable.

[tolakram]

Is every storm a pinhole eye now? I think it's going annular as well. Let the eye clear out, it's not mature yet.

[cycloneye]

Looks like a pinhole eye. Would say it's pushing T5.0 now.

Will know much more later this afternoon and evening when two planes will be out there.

[Highteeld]

Another burst of lightning. Wouldn't be surprised to see winds over 100 mph by now.

[underthwx]

Part of the 5:10 AM NWS Tallahassee Area Forecast Discussion....

"You need to complete your preparations today if you live in the
Florida big bend. To put this system into the historical context,
there are NO major hurricanes in the historical dataset going back
to 1851 that have tracked into Apalachee Bay. None. Don`t mess
around with this."....

That's from senior met Don Van Dyke...he interned at our office (NWS Melbourne) some 15-ish years ago

My apologies, I believe I incorrectly wrote it came from the NHC discussion....

[Buck]

Is every storm a pinhole eye now? I think it's going annular as well. Let the eye clear out, it's not mature yet.

And constant EWRCs!

[MGC]

Idalia has plenty of ocean left to mix out that dry air. Should still achieve major hurricane at landfall.....MGC

[Highteeld]

Unreal structural changes in just the last 100 minutes or so
1550z

1730z

[ScottNAtlanta]

Is every storm a pinhole eye now? I think it's going annular as well. Let the eye clear out, it's not mature yet.

And constant EWRCs!

and gonna be a cat 5

[Emmett_Brown]

As a kid in the 80's I liked playing Star Castle at the arcade. The current visible satellite loop reminds me of that (cinnamon role also comes to mind). Idalia appears to be ramping up as expected. First band just passed me here in Sarasota, and brought breezy and rainy conditions for about 30 min. Winds light now with the sun peaking through. The first of many bands I am sure.

[ChrisH-UK]

Using GOES-16 Meso Sector GeoColor with Optical Depth products this is a image of Idalia showing the structure with in the upper clouds showing the arms and a wrapped eye.

Source - https://col.st/FDJOQ

[TallyTracker]

This is shaping up to be a devastating hit for my area. The power outages are going to be horrid due to trees. I fear the building codes are not up to this.

[SunnyThoughts]

This is shaping up to be a devastating hit for my area. The power outages are going to be horrid due to trees. I fear the building codes are not up to this.

Take care. I passed TONS of power trucks headed that way yesterday...im sure more are coming today. Stay safe, have plenty of supplies and be prepared best you can. Have some cash on hand if possible, if you are staying put.

[FireRat]

Part of the 5:10 AM NWS Tallahassee Area Forecast Discussion....

"You need to complete your preparations today if you live in the
Florida big bend. To put this system into the historical context,
there are NO major hurricanes in the historical dataset going back
to 1851 that have tracked into Apalachee Bay. None. Don`t mess
around with this."....

That's from senior met Don Van Dyke...he interned at our office (NWS Melbourne) some 15-ish years ago

Yup, might have to go back to 1843 for that area, i.e. the Port Leon Hurricane. This area of FL has been lucky for quite some time.

[Highteeld]

Lightning frequency really increasing as well. Updrafts are powerful

[Tallygrl]

This is shaping up to be a devastating hit for my area. The power outages are going to be horrid due to trees. I fear the building codes are not up to this.

I agree. We can’t take a normal storm without trees causing outages. I’m really really worried about what Tallahassee is going to look like if we get true Hurricane sustained winds for the first time since I’ve lived here (30 ish years) - let alone if we have major hurricane force winds.

[toad strangler]

This is shaping up to be a devastating hit for my area. The power outages are going to be horrid due to trees. I fear the building codes are not up to this.

Best of luck. Florida Building codes post 2000 are certainly up to this. The Florida Building Code is state wide. Not just in South Florida. It's the older infrastructure that will fare the worst. That said, you do have more trees up your way so those are a problem for sure!

[sweetpea]

This is shaping up to be a devastating hit for my area. The power outages are going to be horrid due to trees. I fear the building codes are not up to this.

That is my concern too, I think this is going to catch quite a few people by surprise. We are watching closely here in Sopchoppy, we are in a mandatory evac zone, zone A, but just barely. All we have to do is go about a block or so north and that is were zone c starts. We are staying put as of right now, but we do have somewhere to go in Crawfordville if we decide to head out.

I am really praying it isn't as bad somehow and that she eases up. Can't imagine all the damage that will go on in Tally with all the trees. Much less what Wakulla will look like. Be safe!!