ATL: IDALIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Nimbus]

Looks like a pinhole eye. Would say it's pushing T5.0 now.

Will know much more later this afternoon and evening when two planes will be out there.

They did a good job with the windfield last mission, there are going to be some power outages in St Petersburg with 55 mph gusts. Very high winds at 850 mb but they only seem to make it to the surface during the squalls.

[cycloneye]

2 PM= 90 mph

SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.2N 84.9W
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM WNW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.76 INCHES

[cheezyWXguy]

That eastern eyewall is so strong now that it will likely attenuate the appearance of the western eyewall, given how far it is from the radar. It looks like a half-icane on radar, but satellite clearly shows it is not

[underthwx]

Idalia moving Northward at 15 mph as of 2 pm...

[Craters]

saved loop
https://i.imgur.com/FAw96pv.gif

It's weirdly amazing how something can be so magnificent and frightening at the same time...

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/WeatherNation/status/1696580298384052380

[Highteeld]

Deep, arching convection on the south and eastern eyewall now. Starting to wrap around the whole eyewall. Radar signature looking better defined in those quadrants as well.
Lightning is wrapping around as well

[Iceresistance]

I just got home from College, what did I just miss?

[MississippiWx]

In situations like this, you can't go by every satellite image. We are super privileged in modern times to have minute by minute satellite imagery. The overall structure and trend is quick organization and strengthening. Once the eye clears, it will be off to the races. We have to hope this is delayed as long as possible.

[Ntxw]

It already has great structure. Core is getting together and once eye clears (unfortunately this will likely happen as it approaches the coast) I don't see any reason it's not an easy cat 4. Those in the way hopefully have already prepared and/or left.

[MetroMike]

https://twitter.com/WeatherNation/status/1696580298384052380

Thats why I said the SPC is trigger shy on conditions favorable for tornados.

[StormPyrate]

first feeder squall just landed here in largo/clearwater
22 mph gust out of the SW peak 27
1002 and falling
.4 inh rain rate

[Spacecoast]

[crimi481]

I have never seen these strong bands before- coming from a storm tjhis far from S.W. Florida coast.
Did the dry slots push energy from center0 carved them off?

[Ian2401]

https://i.ibb.co/19y4vz7/ef58.jpg

That's old. Idalia is already up past 25N

[Ianswfl]

Just 4 days ago we were thinking like a cat1 into swfl instead

[jlauderdal]

Just 4 days ago we were thinking like a cat1 into swfl instead

SWFL was possible but unlikely throughout this event. Seems like you want a hurricane, you have plenty of opportunity moving forward, be patient.

[GCANE]

Everything radar indicated so far
Nothing observed

 https://twitter.com/NWStornado/status/1696585965240979518

[Zonacane]

We have a long way to go until landfall and the storm will be intensifying until it makes landfall. Hard to see how this doesn't become an upper-end major hurricane.

[tolakram]

Just 4 days ago we were thinking like a cat1 into swfl instead

No reliable model showed that, NHC never had a track into SW Florida.