ATL: IDALIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ScottNAtlanta]

Pressure down to 970

[InfernoFlameCat]

No significant pressure drops so far. That’s good. Maybe we will only get a cat 2 out of this. (Fingers crossed)

[ElectricStorm]

NW quad winds are not very strong this pass

[StormPyrate]

This is shaping up to be a devastating hit for my area. The power outages are going to be horrid due to trees. I fear the building codes are not up to this.

As far as I'm concerned, ALL of Florida should have the strict hurricane codes of S. FL.

These storms seem to be coming north just as strong as anything the south ever gets.

Maybe after this there will be changes to building codes in rural areas in the north.

In fact, maybe some areas did. Can anyone near Mexico Beach tell me? Did they update your building codes due to Michael's devastation?

Not an expert, but all counties are supposed to follow the Florida Building Code and wind loading requirements. In Gulf County, most new construction performed as designed and a lot older well-built structures did well also. Water(surge) was the major cause of destruction when structure elevation was not sufficient to avoid the surge. Wind caused the next highest level of destruction. Elevation was a major factor for rebuilding in surge areas. It is my understanding that any structure having 50% or more damage is supposed to be rebuilt to code. A word of warning for any one subject to surge from Idalia, do not underestimate the power of water. Don't gamble, water wins, you lose.

You are correct, dont remember the year, but all new building in Florida has to meet new codes, and older houses sold in Florida more often than not have to be improved to get home owners, we had to put a roof on, with mitigation and confirm we had storm rated windows and doors before we could get insurance, just four years ago.

[aspen]

Pressure is down maybe 2 mb from last time. Looks like it has not been strengthening much at all, contrary to what all the hurricane models were forecasting.

[MetroMike]

Maybe the window for an eye visible on satellite is closing.

[SunnyThoughts]

970.5 MB ugh

[Extratropical94]

Center drop: 972mb/5kts

[aspen]

972/5 eye drop, supports 971-972 mbar. It has deepened since last flight, but nothing crazy. I wonder if that weak PVS that GCANE mentioned is keeping a lid on Idalia. Or maybe it’s just internal dynamics and its inability to get a super strong, defined eyewall going.

[Highteeld]

Storm is still deepening at a decent pace. Winds need to catch up though

[tolakram]

Pressure is down maybe 2 mb from last time. Looks like it has not been strengthening much at all, contrary to what all the hurricane models were forecasting.

What models?
HAFS-A 965MB at 5PM
HAFS-B 964MB at 5PM
HWRF 964MB at 5PM

I'm not so sure it's that far off. It's a good sign perhaps, but not that good.

11PM tonight, most hurricane models have it between 949 and 955. That might be the point to look at as time will be rapidly running out. We don't know how fast this will deepen once the eyewall is fully formed.

[IcyTundra]

Still think this gets to a cat 3.

[ScottNAtlanta]

I think the eye is going to clear shortly. It has built a wall of hot towers around it. Could be within the hour

[Extratropical94]

91kt FL 69kt SFMR in SE quad

[aspen]

Pressure is down maybe 2 mb from last time. Looks like it has not been strengthening much at all, contrary to what all the hurricane models were forecasting.

What models?
HAFS-A 965MB at 5PM
HAFS-B 964MB at 5PM
HWRF 964MB at 5PM

I'm not so sure it's that far off. It's a good sign perhaps, but not that good.

11PM tonight, most hurricane models have it between 949 and 955. That might be the point to look at as time will be rapidly running out. We don't know how fast this will deepen once the eyewall is fully formed.

Okay it’s less behind than I thought. I do think at this pace, a high-end 3 or low-end 4 is the ceiling. We’re thankfully not gonna get another Michael out of this.

[ThunderForce]

I am very worried about this storm. Currently the NHC track has us quite a bit to the west (no warnings issued), but with most of the models trending more towards Franklin County/Wakulla County I'm very concerned about what the effects are going to be here.

[Sanibel]

Dry air in West Gulf...

No pin hole...

[ScottNAtlanta]

What do you think NHC goes with for winds at 5p? I'm thinking 80kts

[ElectricStorm]

SE quad much better, interested to see what the NE quad has.

I'm still expecting this to really ramp up right before landfall. Probably 105-115kts. I'd be surprised if it's higher than that, or if it doesn't become a major

[tolakram]

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