WPAC: MAWAR - Post-Tropical

[doomhaMwx]

An elevated AWS at a research center in Yigo, Guam had a min station pressure of 27.949 inHg (946.46mb) at 20:05 CHST (10:05Z) as Mawar passed to the north. My personal estimate of the station elevation is about 140m ASL, resulting in ~962mb MSLP — so far the lowest I've seen in Guam.

[wxman57]

Peak wind reported at the Guam airport was sustained wind 62 kts with a gust to 91 kts. This was not a supertyphoon as it passed. Likely a Cat 2 at that time. Maybe 100 kts. JTWC was likely overestimating winds. Considerable weakening occurred prior to passage.

PGUM 241354Z AUTO 1/2SM +RA VV007 26/ A2893 RMK AO2 PK WND 22066/1354 SLP788 P0175 T0256 402780256 $
PGUM 241327Z AUTO 1/2SM +RA VV005 26/ A2888 RMK AO2 P0103 T0256 $
PGUM 241254Z AUTO 1/4SM +RA VV004 26/ A2877 RMK AO2 SLP735 P0158 T0261 $
PGUM 241154Z AUTO 1/4SM +RA VV003 26/ A2870 RMK AO2 PRESFR SLP709 P0203 60507 70619 T0256 10261 20256 56022 $
PGUM 241054Z AUTO 1/4SM +RA VV002 26/ A2870 RMK AO2 SLP712 P0160 T0256 $
PGUM 240954Z AUTO 30062G91KT 1/4SM +RA FG VV002 26/26 A2874 RMK AO2 SLP724 P0073 T02610261 $
PGUM 240854Z 30056G84KT 1/4SM +RA FG VV003 26/26 A2976 RMK AO2 PK WND 30079/0755 SLP730 P0039 60071 T02610261 58045
PGUM 240838Z 30056G84KT 1/4SM +RA FG VV003 26/26 A2877 RMK AO2 PK WND 30079/0755 PRESFR P0026 T02610261 $
PGUM 240826Z 30056G84KT 1/2SM +RA FG VV003 26/26 A2879 RMK AO2 PK WND 30079/0755 P0017 T02610261 $
PGUM 240811Z 30056G84KT 1/4SM +RA FG VV003 26/26 A2881 RMK AO2 PK WND 30079/0755 P0009 T02610261 $
PGUM 240754Z 30062G85KT 1SM +RA BR OVC004 26/25 A2882 RMK AO2 PK WND 30085/0749 PRESFR SLP753 P0020 T02610250
PGUM 240750Z 30059G85KT 1 1/4SM RA BR OVC004 26/25 A2883 RMK AO2 PK WND 30085/0749 PRESFR P0020 /
PGUM 240743Z 30062G78KT 3/4SM +RA BR VV004 26/25 A2885 RMK AO2 PK WND 30082/0716 P0020 T02610250 $
PGUM 240654Z COR 31050G80KT 1/4SM RA FG VV005 26/25 A2889 RMK AO2 PK WND 32084/0633 PRESFR SLP777 P0012 T02610250
PGUM 240630Z 31058G81KT 1/4SM -RA FG OVC008 26/25 A2892 RMK AO2 PK WND 32081/0622 PRESFR P0000 T02610250
PGUM 240554Z 32055G78KT 1SM -RA BR OVC008 26/25 A2896 RMK AO2 PK WND 32078/0547 PRESFR SLP798 P0007 60028 T02610250 10267 20261 56089 $
PGUM 240542Z 31050G75KT 1/2SM -RA FG OVC008 26/25 A2897 RMK AO2 PK WND 31076/0528 PRESFR P0002 T02610250 /
PGUM 240521Z 32049G75KT 1 1/4SM -RA BR OVC009 26/25 A2900 RMK AO2 PK WND 32075/0519 PRESFR P0002 T02610250 $
PGUM 240513Z 32048G72KT 3/4SM -RA BR OVC008 26/25 A2901 RMK AO2 PK WND 32072/0506 P0002 T02610250 $
PGUM 240506Z 32053G72KT 1SM -RA BR OVC008 26/25 A2902 RMK AO2 PK WND 32072/0506 P0002 T02610250 $
PGUM 240454Z 32052G74KT 1/2SM +RA FG BKN009 OVC014 26/25 A2902 RMK AO2 PK WND 31074/0446 SLP820 P0015 T02610250
PGUM 240444Z 32055G68KT 1/4SM RA FG BKN009 OVC014 26/25 A2903 RMK AO2 PK WND 32069/0426 PRESFR P0010 T02610250
PGUM 240431Z 32048G69KT 3/4SM -RA BR OVC012 26/24 A2908 RMK AO2 PK WND 32069/0426 PRESFR P0000 T02610244
PGUM 240414Z 33048G65KT 2SM -RA BR OVC010 26/25 A2911 RMK AO2 PK WND 34065/0406 CIG 006V015 P0000 T02610250
PGUM 240354Z 33047G64KT 1 1/2SM -RA BR OVC008 26/25 A2915 RMK AO2 PK WND 33064/0338 CIG 004V010 SLP861 P0001 T02610250
PGUM 240329Z 33044G57KT 1 1/4SM -RA BR BKN008 OVC013 26/25 A2918 RMK AO2 PK WND 33063/0314 CIG 004V011 P0000 T02610250
PGUM 240319Z 33045G63KT 2 1/2SM -RA BR BKN008 BKN013 OVC020 26/25 A2919 RMK AO2 PK WND 33063/0314 PRESFR P0000 T02610250
PGUM 240309Z 34045G59KT 1 1/2SM -RA BR BKN008 BKN011 OVC018 26/24 A2921 RMK AO2 PK WND 33059/0309 P0000 T02610244
PGUM 240302Z 34041G59KT 1 3/4SM -RA BR BKN010 BKN014 OVC020 27/24 A2921 RMK AO2 PK WND 33055/0255 P0000 T02670244
PGUM 240254Z 34041G59KT 3SM -RA BR BKN010 OVC017 27/24 A2922 RMK AO2 PK WND 34059/0253 RAE28B54 PRESFR SLP887 P0000 60005 T02670244 58070

[wxman57]

JTWC is STILL saying 120 kts? Dvorak down to 4.5 to 5.0. Likely around 85-90 kts. Starting to look better on satellite now.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Looks cat 3 now, perhaps another round of RI occurring?

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Peak wind reported at the Guam airport was sustained wind 62 kts with a gust to 91 kts. This was not a supertyphoon as it passed. Likely a Cat 2 at that time. Maybe 100 kts. JTWC was likely overestimating winds. Considerable weakening occurred prior to passage.

Nonprofessional observation here, I think a personal weather station in Hagatna recorded sustained winds of 157 km/h, several gusts in excess of 206 km/h (close to 105 kts) with the max gust of up to 240 km/h from 10-11 PM ChST. Shown in the previous page. Am not sure how reliable it is though. Did the Guam Airport continue reporting after the peak?

[doomhaMwx]

Peak wind reported at the Guam airport was sustained wind 62 kts with a gust to 91 kts. This was not a supertyphoon as it passed. Likely a Cat 2 at that time. Maybe 100 kts. JTWC was likely overestimating winds. Considerable weakening occurred prior to passage.

Nonprofessional observation here, I think a personal weather station in Hagatna recorded sustained winds of 157 km/h, several gusts in excess of 206 km/h (close to 105 kts) with the max gust of up to 240 km/h from 10-11 PM ChST. Shown in the previous page. Am not sure how reliable it is though. Did the Guam Airport continue reporting after the peak?

That station is located at Nimitz Hill, which has an elevation of ~200m.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Reportedly in Hyatt

 https://twitter.com/zaethefirst/status/1661381519250710528

[ScottNAtlanta]

The eye has really cleared out and become symmetric the last couple of frames on satellite. It seems this storm did that little island dance where it scoots around the north side of the island like you see sometimes with Hispaniola in the Atlantic.

[Yellow Evan]

The eye has really cleared out and become symmetric the last couple of frames on satellite. It seems this storm did that little island dance where it scoots around the north side of the island like you see sometimes with Hispaniola in the Atlantic.

Likely wasn’t topographical induced this time because Guam isn’t the high so Froude number is lower and less energy is bedded to go over the island.

[Yellow Evan]

An elevated AWS at a research center in Yigo, Guam had a min station pressure of 27.949 inHg (946.46mb) at 20:05 CHST (10:05Z) as Mawar passed to the north. My personal estimate of the station elevation is about 140m ASL, resulting in ~962mb MSLP — so far the lowest I've seen in Guam.

https://i.imgur.com/spUcUFv.png
https://i.imgur.com/frj7uzm.png

This makes the 950s or so plausible. Would wager this was a Category 3 at closest approach.

[Kingarabian]

The eye has really cleared out and become symmetric the last couple of frames on satellite. It seems this storm did that little island dance where it scoots around the north side of the island like you see sometimes with Hispaniola in the Atlantic.

Possible but Guam is not as mountainous. But a great point as models don't seem to model this out properly. We do see this in Hawaii as well similar to Hispaniola.

[zzzh]

ERC is far from over per the microwave. Another case of IR deception.

[cycloneye]

02W MAWAR 230524 1800 14.1N 144.1E WPAC 130 930

[dexterlabio]

ERC is far from over per the microwave. Another case of IR deception.

Let's see if Mawar can pull off a seamless EWRC this time around.

[Hayabusa]

12z Euro is same as 00z stalling near/over Babuyan/Batanes islands before going NE

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

Wow, it has rained a ton over there.

[canebeard]

The eye has really cleared out and become symmetric the last couple of frames on satellite. It seems this storm did that little island dance where it scoots around the north side of the island like you see sometimes with Hispaniola in the Atlantic.

Possible but Guam is not as mountainous. But a great point as models don't seem to model this out properly. We do see this in Hawaii as well similar to Hispaniola.

I doubt Guam or Hawaii affects the path; more likely just fortuitous wobbles and/or erc at just the right time, changing the geometric center point temporarily. Guam has had direct hits on several occasions. Hispanolia is another story. When we went to Puerto Rico to chase Hugo in 1989, many of the locals in San Juan claimed the Yunque region east of them protected them from direct hits. Recent history has disproved that one.

[cycloneye]

The eye has really cleared out and become symmetric the last couple of frames on satellite. It seems this storm did that little island dance where it scoots around the north side of the island like you see sometimes with Hispaniola in the Atlantic.

Possible but Guam is not as mountainous. But a great point as models don't seem to model this out properly. We do see this in Hawaii as well similar to Hispaniola.

I doubt Guam or Hawaii affects the path; more likely just fortuitous wobbles and/or erc at just the right time, changing the geometric center point temporarily. Hispanolia is another story. Guam has had direct hits on many occasions. When we went to Puerto Rico to chase Hugo in 1989, many of the locals in San Juan claimed the Yunque region east of them protected them from direct hits. Recent history has disproved that one.

Here are the Guam hits and near misses in history.

https://guampdn.biz/dwilliams.guampdn.b ... te/history

[Sciencerocks]

 https://twitter.com/MatthewCuyugan/status/1661448408220172288