EPAC: HILARY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Kingarabian]

T6.5. But yeah the winds are probably not there yet.

[aspen]

There is a recon flight scheduled for tonight, right? I thought I saw one on the recon schedule cycloneye posted.

[cycloneye]

There is a recon flight scheduled for tonight, right? I thought I saw one on the recon schedule cycloneye posted.

Plane departs for the overnight mission around 8:15 PM EDT.

FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 78
A. 19/0530Z
B. AFXXX 0209E HILARY
C. 19/0015Z
D. 20.3N 113.3W
E. 19/0500Z TO 19/0830Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
G. FIX

[Hurricane Mike]

Evening video update on Hilary and the upcoming Atlantic activity
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Df04lKJcAt8

[Hypercane_Kyle]

What an absolutely wild situation. I am going with a 45 knot TS making landfall in San Diego.

[GCANE]

Minimal impact of the EWRC.
Running into a high shear environment
Yet still looks good
Warm core running through the entire troposphere
https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... _xsect.gif

Minimal pickup of WISHE from the oceans hot water

Something is not normal

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Hilary Intermediate Advisory Number 10A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092023
600 PM MDT Fri Aug 18 2023

...OUTER BANDS FROM HILARY SPREADING ONSHORE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...
...LIFE-THREATENING AND POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC FLOODING LIKELY
OVER MUCH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES
THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...

SUMMARY OF 600 PM MDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.1N 112.4W
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM WNW OF SOCORRO ISLAND
ABOUT 310 MI...495 KM SSW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...28.00 INCHES

[St0rmTh0r]

Minimal impact of the EWRC.
Running into a high shear environment
Yet still looks good
Warm core running through the entire troposphere
https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... _xsect.gif

Minimal pickup of WISHE from the oceans hot water

Something is not normal

what do you mean?

[TheDreamTraveler]

SoCal is now under a Tropical Storm Watch. I never thought I’d see that.

According to the NHC discussion, it's the first time this has ever happened.

This would have happened in 1939 but the NHC didn't exist yet

[Bocadude85]

18z HAFS-A shifted east and landfalls over Northern Baja, in contrast 18z HWRF shifted east and goes directly over Catalina Island before landfalling around Malibu.. which is farther west then 12z.

[sikkar]

Ramping up nicely right now.

[Yellow Evan]

CDO gradually symmetrizing post-ERC while eye warms. Very Lorenzo esque right now.

[Hurricane2022]

[Kingarabian]

As mentioned earlier, systems in this general area of the EPAC can be weaker than what Dvorak suggests. But it does look like a 125kt system to me. Maintaining T6.5 for the past couple of hours.

[Yellow Evan]

Large, warm eye with somewhat smooth but not symmetrical CDO reminds me of Lorenzo peak 2 tbh.

[Sciencerocks]

[Hurricane2022]

[BobHarlem]

 https://twitter.com/NWSVegas/status/1692728544349102549

[cheezyWXguy]

https://imageshack.com/i/po3od1CAj

Is that already another ERC on the way?