ATL: IDALIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hypercane_Kyle]

I'm just going to post this due to how mind-numbing it is.

What's crazy is I remember the 10 year gap in major hurricanes the USA experienced between Wilma and Harvey... now Cat 4 landfalls seem to be almost a yearly occurrence now.

[sweetpea]

What is interesting is if you look at the loop posted above by CronkPSU...the lack of any lights in the big bend. That could be lack of population or just people left and didn't leave the lights on

The area is not populated, are you just realizing this??

I know that...but it is completely dark. I didn't think it was that unpopulated

Pretty much all of the counties Wakulla, Franklin, jefferson, Taylor and Dixie issued a mandatory evacuation south of 98. Everyone is gone for the most part. Even though it is usually really dark here, driving at night sucks.

[869MB]

Significant Tornado Potential (STP) just jumped up big time,
Fortunately it's still offshore

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/s18/stor/stor.gif?1693361971779

[Iceresistance]

Cloud tops on the convection outside the eyewall is warming up rapidly

What does that mean?

[IcyTundra]

I'm just going to post this due to how mind-numbing it is.

What's crazy is I remember the 10 year gap in major hurricanes the USA experienced between Wilma and Harvey... now Cat 4 landfalls seem to be almost a yearly occurrence now.

Nearly 12 years from Wilma in October 2005 to Harvey in August 2017. Still Ike 2008, Gustav 2008, Irene 2011, and Sandy 2012 were all very impactful despite not being major hurricanes at landfall.

[Ianswfl]

Cat 3/4 winds can take roofs off of homes especially old ones and trailers. Toppled trees and tornadoes are big risks too. Why stay in a house in harms way is the question. If I was there I would have already sent my kids and parents somewhere else.

I feel like you are expressing fearmongering... The people that truly should be evacuating are those on the Florida coast, not those inland in Tallahassee. Comments like this do a disservice to who really are in trouble. This is a dangerous storm, let's be real about the impacts...

100% agree, I spend a lot of time in the storm zone, I do insurance adjusting for these events.

Its more pronounced farther south, but you get gas stations to run out, you get hotels completely full of people who weren't even in a storm surge risk, so these families need to drive farther away and risk running out of gas to get to places.

If you are that concerned for your safety - and that is up to you - then you should leave well in advance of the storm, the people in the storm surge zone need to be able to get out, and get to a sturdy structure. Usually a tree falling on a house is not fatal, anyway - its really bad, but its not like 8 feet of wavy water is in your house.

I will say for Ian, I saw very few people who had significant roof issues who were not in the storm surge zone, most of the houses with the insane damage were on Pine Island, Sanibel, Matlacha, and just across the causeways to the main land. I don't remember seeing a single severely damaged roof that was 2 miles or more inland.

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Idalia is looking to really ramp up, I am super glad it looks to be hitting an area with very few people. but for thoese people its going to be bad. I just couldnt imagine a storm like this hitting 50-70 miles more to the south so soon after Ian.

DIsagree. Port Charlotte, Punta Gorda, North Port had a lot of roof damage. here in Punta Gorda a lot of roofs trashed. Winds in Punta Gorda were mid range cat3 on the backside. Port Charlotte had a 115mph sustained on the weaker east side as well.

I think Boca Grande won when it comes to wind. HOWEVER those millionaire houses are built extremely well with good roofs. Older structures and tree damage was there though! Jock Williams was on the island and those winds were amazing. That's why you saw Placida get trashed. I live in Punta Gorda and the woods across my sub division which is less than 1.5 miles from the airport were trashed. Looked like the middle of Dec in Kentucky. No leaves hardly could see buildings you'd never knew that were there with the woods.

[GCANE]

Maybe a moat forming on the NW quad

[Owasso]

Looks like the AF mission is done. Next recon flight takes off in just over an hour

[Ianswfl]

Hot tower on the northern eyewall about to pop.

[GCANE]

Cloud tops on the convection outside the eyewall is warming up rapidly

What does that mean?

Not sure, maybe on set of an EWRC?
Need to see an eye drop from Miss Piggy

[Zonacane]

Maybe a moat forming on the NW quad

Don't see any sign of a double maxima, yet. Don't think it will get going quickly enough to have an impact

[pcolaman]

Looking at the radar out of Tampa Bay the motion is still basically due north. A wobble here and there but for now staying pretty true.

[url]https://i.ibb.co/2tHGXPW/KTBW-Super-Res-Reflectivity-1-9-10-PM-2.png [/url]

The coastline makes it give the appearance also

[brad512]

The area is not populated, are you just realizing this??

I know that...but it is completely dark. I didn't think it was that unpopulated

Pretty much all of the counties Wakulla, Franklin, jefferson, Taylor and Dixie issued a mandatory evacuation south of 98. Everyone is gone for the most part. Even though it is usually really dark here, driving at night sucks.

FWIW, last Fall when Fiona hit here and about 80% of the province was out of power I looked at satellite floaters/pics like that the night after and it still showed everything being lit up as normal despite the fact that almost nobody had power, so it seems like those night lights aren't actually "live" or something. Just something interesting I noticed.

It could have changed now, but even if after this makes landfall and wipes out the power there it seems like those images don't show the changes in the lights.

[869MB]

Helicity went thru the roof south of the CoC

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/s18/effh/effh.gif?1693362657391

[Highteeld]

That NOAA plane is having one hell of a good mission. Super impressed.

[PavelGaborik10]

Cloud tops on the convection outside the eyewall is warming up rapidly

What does that mean?

Not sure, maybe on set of an EWRC?
Need to see an eye drop from Miss Piggy

Haven't seen any signs of a wind maxima from Recon, but radar does show the possibility.

Would likely transpire quite quickly given how small the current eye is

[SconnieCane]

Helicity went thru the roof south of the CoC

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/s18/effh/effh.gif?1693362657391

Haven't seen a whole lot of warnings. I think the saving grace for the tornado threat may be the fact that it's nighttime. If that feeder band was coming onto the coast 7 hours ago after daytime heating built up the low-level CAPE, could have been a different story.

[Poonwalker]

Cat 3/4 winds can take roofs off of homes especially old ones and trailers. Toppled trees and tornadoes are big risks too. Why stay in a house in harms way is the question. If I was there I would have already sent my kids and parents somewhere else.

I feel like you are expressing fearmongering... The people that truly should be evacuating are those on the Florida coast, not those inland in Tallahassee. Comments like this do a disservice to who really are in trouble. This is a dangerous storm, let's be real about the impacts...

100% agree, I spend a lot of time in the storm zone, I do insurance adjusting for these events.

Its more pronounced farther south, but you get gas stations to run out, you get hotels completely full of people who weren't even in a storm surge risk, so these families need to drive farther away and risk running out of gas to get to places.

If you are that concerned for your safety - and that is up to you - then you should leave well in advance of the storm, the people in the storm surge zone need to be able to get out, and get to a sturdy structure. Usually a tree falling on a house is not fatal, anyway - its really bad, but its not like 8 feet of wavy water is in your house.

I will say for Ian, I saw very few people who had significant roof issues who were not in the storm surge zone, most of the houses with the insane damage were on Pine Island, Sanibel, Matlacha, and just across the causeways to the main land. I don't remember seeing a single severely damaged roof that was 2 miles or more inland.

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Idalia is looking to really ramp up, I am super glad it looks to be hitting an area with very few people. but for thoese people its going to be bad. I just couldnt imagine a storm like this hitting 50-70 miles more to the south so soon after Ian.

Why can’t you do both? Evacuate if you are on the coast and if you are in a structure that’s not built up to standards or has old trees that could end up in the bedroom. I haven’t been through a direct hit but I see the aftermath enough to know what I would do. I hope it misses every populated area. Yeah, these things scare me.

[Ianswfl]

What does that mean?

Not sure, maybe on set of an EWRC?
Need to see an eye drop from Miss Piggy

Haven't seen any signs of a wind maxima from Recon, but radar does show the possibility.

Would likely transpire quite quickly given how small the current eye is

Charley had that moat like structure too. Ida did as well. Seems the smaller storms have that a lot more. I don't really think it's an EWRC.

[Highteeld]

Not sure, maybe on set of an EWRC?
Need to see an eye drop from Miss Piggy

Haven't seen any signs of a wind maxima from Recon, but radar does show the possibility.

Would likely transpire quite quickly given how small the current eye is

Charley had that moat like structure too. Ida did as well. Seems the smaller storms have that a lot more. I don't really think it's an EWRC.

It's a well defined spiral band from what I can see