ATL: IDALIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tolakram]

saved loop

[tolakram]

[GCANE]

Vince Waelti going to take a direct hit

https://www.youtube.com/live/68pUSDqDW- ... Sxtl0vUCK4

[NDG]

Pressure going up some now.

094430 2921N 08358W 6999 02693 //// +135 //// 090060 072 089 013 01
094500 2920N 08400W 6997 02682 9483 +170 +165 049036 047 089 012 00
094530 2918N 08359W 6985 02685 9440 +202 +147 003022 034 058 010 03
094600 2917N 08357W 6957 02708 9444 +186 +140 218012 031 024 002 00
$$

[NDG]

Looking at surface reports still no hurricane force winds being reported but official reports are very sparse in that area of the FL Big Bend.

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/NWStornado/status/1696820657819193557

[NDG]

Fairly strong SW eyewall.

URNT15 KNHC 300955
AF305 1310A IDALIA HDOB 37 20230830
094630 2917N 08355W 6945 02723 9436 +194 +125 203032 035 023 003 03
094700 2919N 08355W 6938 02733 9459 +175 +124 207028 035 /// /// 03
094730 2920N 08356W 6965 02707 9467 +176 +127 132012 022 068 009 00
094800 2920N 08358W 6946 02727 9469 +163 +142 055019 022 071 009 03
094830 2918N 08358W 6922 02752 9433 +195 +144 339017 020 026 003 00
094900 2916N 08358W 6975 02685 9421 +209 +142 306031 038 025 003 00
094930 2915N 08356W 6969 02697 9427 +210 +142 272035 040 041 005 00
095000 2913N 08354W 6975 02708 9442 +212 +144 241050 058 046 005 00
095030 2912N 08353W 6958 02751 9438 +240 +143 242091 104 054 003 00
095100 2911N 08350W 6975 02772 9474 +246 +144 240108 112 063 004 00
095130 2910N 08349W 6971 02814 9544 +215 +149 235107 113 071 001 00
095200 2909N 08347W 6965 02863 9610 +189 +153 230105 106 072 002 00
095230 2908N 08346W 6977 02863 9642 +175 +154 231102 103 076 001 00
095300 2906N 08345W 6962 02904 9679 +161 +152 231102 103 076 001 00
095330 2905N 08344W 6970 02912 9710 +151 +144 229100 103 070 001 00
095400 2904N 08342W 6962 02936 9725 +154 +132 230094 097 067 002 00
095430 2903N 08341W 6968 02946 9745 +155 +118 227092 093 065 001 00
095500 2902N 08340W 6972 02952 9769 +144 +115 224091 093 065 001 00
095530 2900N 08339W 6966 02969 9786 +137 +113 226088 093 065 003 00
095600 2859N 08339W 6968 02975 9807 +125 +118 226090 093 065 002 00

[Clearcloudz]

 https://twitter.com/ReedTimmerAccu/status/1696823256995541041

[Teban54]

Eastern eyewall where the Cat 4 winds were found before 4 AM has weakened some.

URNT15 KNHC 300925
AF305 1310A IDALIA HDOB 34 20230830
091630 2913N 08404W 6969 02695 9461 +171 +123 058015 017 023 001 03
091700 2915N 08403W 6951 02722 9470 +165 +130 093019 020 /// /// 03
091730 2915N 08401W 6948 02722 9466 +166 +132 124026 033 072 006 00
091800 2915N 08359W 6959 02710 9459 +177 +136 138043 048 093 003 00
091830 2915N 08357W 6978 02700 9491 +157 +141 156066 076 098 004 00
091900 2915N 08356W 6947 02756 9514 +152 +148 163087 093 098 003 00
091930 2915N 08354W 6958 02770 9550 +143 //// 164108 113 097 006 01
092000 2915N 08353W 6976 02770 9584 +137 //// 169114 118 092 006 01
092030 2914N 08351W 6959 02813 9603 +136 //// 169108 109 085 008 01
092100 2914N 08350W 6982 02806 9640 +123 //// 168107 108 080 007 01
092130 2914N 08348W 6944 02873 9651 +141 +107 170107 108 075 005 00
092200 2914N 08347W 6980 02850 9673 +143 +105 175101 106 071 005 00
092230 2914N 08345W 6963 02888 9690 +144 +103 175094 098 067 003 00
092300 2914N 08343W 6966 02903 9702 +152 +101 177088 091 062 003 00
092330 2914N 08341W 6965 02921 9718 +152 +100 177082 086 058 003 00

I wonder if they'll lower the landfall intensity to 110 kt operationally, if not in the TCR. They may still keep it as a Cat 4 for people to be alerted.

[Extratropical94]

The two eyewall drops with the highest surface winds:

[GCANE]

Tornado Warnings are popping up now

 https://twitter.com/NWStornado/status/1696826191226065089

[PavelGaborik10]

This thing is now recording lower/equal winds than/to Fiona's sting jet just prior to landfall in Nova Scotia which they labeled a "mere" 100 MPH category 2.

There's zero chance this is a category 4 right now

[Woofde]

I personally doubt this a Category 4. Inner core totally falling apart. Perfect timing for the population here

[aspen]

At most the current recon data supports 110 kt. But no way the NHC is going to operationally lower the intensity of a major this close to land. Perhaps there was data earlier to support 115 kt.

Also, props to the Euro for sniffing this one out ahead of the GFS. One of the few Euro Ws in recent years.

[GCANE]

The moat is starting to come onshore

[toad strangler]

Inner eyewall looks like it completely disintegrated. Wow.

[GCANE]

Hearing reports cell service starting to go down

[tolakram]

If this was an EWRC then good thing it started when it did (though it looks to be completing quickly!). I would not say this is falling apart.

[GCANE]

Brad Arnold in Perry

https://www.youtube.com/live/TM4fYEisJO ... Mbz0FtQBwM

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/NWStornado/status/1696838985166053497