ATL: IDALIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[PavelGaborik10]

Very close to landfall

https://i.imgur.com/lsEGhpY.gif

Hell of an effort by the partially collapsed eyewall to make a comeback.

You're out of time Junior.

[InfernoFlameCat]

I think we have landfall.

[kevin]

My estimated intensity based on the recon passes:

06z = 945mb/105kt
07z = 941mb/105kt
08z = 940mb/115kt
09z = 943mb/110kt
10z = 945mb/105kt
11z (30 minutes ago) = 948mb/100kt

There was some last-minute reorganization before landfall so I estimate 100/105 kt landfall.

[Joe Snow]

I think we have landfall.

Dekle Beach

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/NWStornado/status/1696850471963787699

[HurricaneBelle]

Serious surge flooding in the Tampa Bay area, and a very nasty band coming through my neck of the woods right now:



Been fortunate so far not to have lost power for other than a moment or two.

[tolakram]

ZCZC MIATCUAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Hurricane Idalia Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
745 AM EDT Wed Aug 30 2023

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE IDALIA MAKES LANDFALL
IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...
...745 AM POSITION UPDATE...

NOAA Doppler radar imagery indicate that the eye of Idalia made
landfall along the coast of the Florida Big Bend near Keaton Beach
around 745 AM EDT (1145 UTC). Data from an Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Idalia's maximum sustained
winds were near 125 mph (205 km/h). The latest minimum pressure
central pressure estimated from reconnaissance data is 949 mb (28.02
inches).

Within the past hour, a C-MAN station at Keaton Beach, Florida,
measured sustained winds of 61 mph (98 km/h), with a gust to 77 mph
(124 km/h). A Florida Coastal Monitoring Program tower located
southwest of Hampton Springs, Florida, recently reported a wind gust
of 68 mph (109 km/h).

Water levels along the coast of the Florida Big Bend are rising
rapidly. A NOAA National Ocean Service tide gauge at Cedar Key,
Florida, recently reported a water level of 5.9 feet above mean
higher high water, which is an approximation of inundation in that
area.

SUMMARY OF 745 AM EDT...1145 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.8N 83.6W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM S OF PERRY FLORIDA
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM NW OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...949 MB...28.02 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brown/Stevenson

[SecondBreakfast]

Lots of trees down on Brandon Copic’s feed just now (Reed’s livestream)

[HurricaneEnzo]

NHC nailed this one. Both track and intensity were pretty much spot on and you can't ask for much more several days out. That's why I said earlier in this thread they are the best in the game and go with what they say first.

Don't get me wrong there are a lot of knowledgeable people on twitter but bottom line a lot of them are in it for the followers so a lot of them sensationalize a bit because that it was gets views and followers. All the calls of significant East shifts because of a short term wobble when they should have been waiting to confirm the trend are not doing anyone any good.

[NDG]

About the biggest town that I see that looks like we will see the worst destruction is Steinhatchee just a mile inland up the river.

[Joe Snow]

Idalia's eye passed right over this tiny town, Dekle Beach

[NDG]

All those people that were saying that record breaking warm waters in the Atlantic didn't matter during a developing strong El Nino are fairly quiet during the past couple of days.

[HurricaneBelle]

NHC nailed this one. Both track and intensity were pretty much spot on and you can't ask for much more several days out. That's why I said earlier in this thread they are the best in the game and go with what they say first.

Don't get me wrong there are a lot of knowledgeable people on twitter but bottom line a lot of them are in it for the followers so a lot of them sensationalize a bit because that it was gets views and followers. All the calls of significant East shifts because of a short term wobble when they should have been waiting to confirm the trend are not doing anyone any good.

Idalia is an excellent example of "just because it happened before doesn't mean it's going to happen again" (and its converse). Thanks to Charley and Ian, quite a few people here as late as yesterday morning thought it was going to go well more east than forecast, instead it's the opposite (now we see why the NHC doesn't use the "in-house" TV station models). Every synoptic situation is different and it goes for the models as well - just because GFS was wrongly left-biased on Ian last year didn't mean it was going to be wrong this time around.

[Grumpy]

All things considered, a fairly uneventful night in Sarasota. A few power blips, some circuit breaker resets this morning, and the normal yard/pool debris. We have some flooding in the prone areas in Bradenton/Sarasota/Port Charlotte. The barrier islands may be in trouble during high tide at noon.

[Jr0d]

Interesting how the SE and NE quadrants were the dominant side when this was in the Caribbean and at landfall the SE quadrant appears to be the weakest quadrant. The surge is bad, but I have to believe it would be much worse if the SE quadrant was fully intact.

Unfortunately many of those in the path of Idalia live in older and less than hurricane proof structures. I am concerned this will be an issue.

[JaxGator]

The eyewall really strengthened right at landfall and looks to be be heading towards Madison, Florida and Valdosta.

[ronjon]

Lost power here in Hernando county around 6 am. Surge flooding in Hernando Beach. King high tides are around 1:30 pm (it's close to low tide now). Add another 3 ft to current surge height if current winds continue into this afternoon.

[dukeblue219]

Lots of trees down on Brandon Copic’s feed just now (Reed’s livestream)

TWC has some good coverage in the trees as well. Frankly I find it more compelling than the "typical" Cantore standing in heavy rain footage. The sound of the wind ripping through huge trees is something else.

[GCANE]

10.3' water at Cedar Key and rising

[tolakram]