WPAC: MAWAR - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

TPPN10 PGTW 250100

A. SUPER TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR)

B. 25/0030Z

C. 14.10N

D. 143.42E

E. ONE/GK2A

F. T7.0/7.0/D1.5/25HRS STT: D0.5/01HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 03A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY CMG YIELDS AN
E# OF 6.5. ADDED 1.0 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR CMG, TO YIELD A DT OF 7.5.
MET AND PT YIELD 7.0. DBO PT DUE RECENCY OF CLOUD TOPS COOLING. VIS
EYE METHOD ALSO YIELDED A DT OF 7.0 WITH AN EYE SMBEDDED IN A 75NM
CDO + 0.5 BF.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
24/1938Z 14.12N 144.00E SSMS


CVACH

JTWC seemingly abandoning 3 hour Dvorak fixes just to fix this a 7.0.

[Hurricane2022]

[cycloneye]

WDPN31 PGTW 250300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR
021//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 14.1N 144.1E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 130 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 52 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 50 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE,
POWERFUL, EXPANDING (ROMCI NOW AT 455NM), AND VERY SYMMETRICAL
SYSTEM THAT CONTINUED TO DEEPEN AND TIGHTEN AS IT MAINTAINED A
SHARPLY-OUTLINED 8-NM PINHOLE EYE AFTER IT TRACKED OVER GUAM AND
INTO THE PHILIPPINE SEA DURING THE DIURNAL MAX NIGHT HOURS. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
PINHOLE EYE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 130KTS IS EXTRAPOLATED WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE FROM AGENCY AND AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES AND IS
CONSISTENT WITH THE IMPROVED EIR STRUCTURE OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
ANALYSIS INDICATES A HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH VERY WARM SST,
LOW VWS, AND STRONG VENTILATION ALOFT.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER AND AMSR2 WIND SPEED DATA.

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE NORTHEAST.


AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T6.5 - 127 KTS
RJTD: T6.0 - 115 KTS
KNES: T6.0 - 115 KTS
CIMSS SATCON: 125 KTS AT 241623Z
CIMSS ADT: 127 KTS AT 240524Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE
VWS: 5-10 KTS
SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: STRONG EQUATORWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: STY MAWAR IS NOW UNDER THE SOLID STEERING OF
THE DEEP-LAYER STR TO THE NORTHEAST AND WILL CONTINUE ON A
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK UNTIL IT BEGINS TO RECURVE AND ROUND THE
STR AXIS AFTER TAU 96 AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH AS
IT AIMS TOWARD TAIWAN. THE HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 145KTS BY TAU 48.
AFTERWARD, REDUCED MOISTURE INFLOW AND PASSAGE OVER RELATIVELY
COOLER WATER WILL GRADUALLY REDUCE THE INTENSITY TO 95KTS BY TAU
120.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS REMAIN IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A
GRADUAL AND EVEN SPREAD TO 145NM AT TAU 72 THEN OPENING UP MORE TO
300NM BY TAU 120. THERE ARE NO DISTINCT OUTLIERS IN THE ENVELOPE;
HOWEVER, THE EUROPEAN MODELS, INCLUDING EEMN, ECMWF, AND UKMET ARE
ON THE LEFT MARGIN ON A MORE STRAIGHT-RUNNER TRAJECTORY TOWARD THE
LUZON STRAIT. IN VIEW OF THIS, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST THAT IS LAID CLOSE TO CONSENSUS UP TO TAU 72, THEN
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE AFTERWARD. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM UP TO TAU 72, THEN LOW AFTERWARD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
NNNN

[Subtrop]

03Z 猛烈な

WTPQ50 RJTD 250300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 250300UTC 14.3N 143.1E GOOD
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 210NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 251500UTC 14.7N 140.8E 25NM 70%
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
24HF 260300UTC 15.1N 138.2E 35NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT

[Sciencerocks]

 https://twitter.com/MatthewCuyugan/status/1661586209297285121

[InfernoFlameCat]

Mawar is looking marvelous. I think its a cat 5 now. lower end Cat 5 as of right now. It might still be intensifying but I do not think it will get too much stronger. It doesn't have the outflow to support a stronger cane. I say it reaches 150 knots at its peak. Unless its CDO cools down another 5C or the outflow becomes more expansive, I don't see this storm making it past 155 knots.

[Teban54]

[mrbagyo]

Mawar is looking marvelous. I think its a cat 5 now. lower end Cat 5 as of right now. It might still be intensifying but I do not think it will get too much stronger. It doesn't have the outflow to support a stronger cane. I say it reaches 150 knots at its peak. Unless its CDO cools down another 5C or the outflow becomes more expansive, I don't see this storm making it past 155 knots.

Wait till it reach the magical Philippine Sea (West of 135E)

[xtyphooncyclonex]

I can't call for a ceiling right now, but this is primed to become a monster especially given that it has outperformed forecasts significantly. It's noteworthy how this was supposed to be a category 2 before striking Guam but ended up a borderline category 5.

[ElectricStorm]

Eye is much more symmetrical than it was earlier, I agree it's probably a Cat 5 now. Expecting 140kts from JTWC at the 6z update

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Mawar has generated 19.5 ACE already. 50 units looks to be well within reach

[Yellow Evan]

TPPN10 PGTW 250606

A. SUPER TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR)

B. 25/0530Z

C. 14.47N

D. 142.87E

E. ONE/GK2A

F. T7.5/7.5/D2.0/24HRS STT: D0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 03A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. EYE EMBEDDED 80NM IN CDO YIELDS AN
E# OF 7.0. ADDED 0.5 FOR A WELL-DEFINED EYE TO YIELD A DT OF 7.5.
MET YIELDS 7.0. PT YIELDS 7.5. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


RAE

[Sciencerocks]

[Sciencerocks]

I'd estimate that this is probably 150 knots. This is probably up there with Katrina or Rita at there peaks.

[doomhaMwx]

JTWC: 145kts

02W MAWAR 230525 0600 14.5N 142.8E WPAC 145 924

JMA: 110kts/910mb

T2302(Mawar)
Issued at 2023/05/25 06:50 UTC
Analysis at 05/25 06 UTC
Grade TY
Scale -
Intensity Violent
Center position N14°30′ (14.5°)
E142°40′ (142.7°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15 km/h (7 kt)
Central pressure 910 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 55 m/s (110 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 80 m/s (155 kt)
Radius of 50-kt wind area 130 km (70 NM)
Radius of 30-kt wind area NE390 km (210 NM)
SW280 km (150 NM)

 https://twitter.com/sayakasofiamori/status/1661629759078699008

[doomhaMwx]

Mawar now sports a thick, symmetric eyewall.



Impressive development over the last ~24 hours:

[aspen]

Mawar is 145 kt according to the JTWC, which is a solid estimate. If it manages to maintain this presentation and giant CMG donut through to the next advisory, it’ll easily be 150-155 kt.

[Hayabusa]

2023MAY25 110000 7.3 910.8 149.0 7.3 7.5 7.5 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 19.76 -78.60 EYE 23 IR 91.1 14.72 -141.75 ARCHER HIM-9 17.3

[mrbagyo]

150 knots

wp022023 MAWAR 20230525 1200 14.7 141.6 W ST 150 924

[cycloneye]