ATL: IDALIA - Models

[ScottNAtlanta]

Seems most of the hurricane models want to take this really close to the tip of Cuba before going north or northeast, and they are all stronger than the global models

[ScottNAtlanta]

According to the18z EPS, the next 48hr will determine how far E, or W it will eventually take.
A SW dive, looping clockwise into Yucatan, or a SE dive looping counterclockwise towards Cuba....

https://i.ibb.co/1MgDvRH/95784605.gif

Seems most hurricane models are showing a counterclockwise loop near tip of Cuba

[SFLcane]

Interesting that stronger runs are both left and right of the main track estimate.

A cat2 member right up tampa bay and now a couple into ft. Myers area and one way south. Ddint see that on 12z

Yea some hurricanes near fort Myers on the 18z Eps

[Spacecoast]

0z SHIPS... 30% RI probability: 65kt/72hr, which is 5.6x climo

[IcyTundra]

12Z suite of models tomorrow will be very important because they will be the first runs with recon data.

[Ianswfl]

Interesting that stronger runs are both left and right of the main track estimate.

A cat2 member right up tampa bay and now a couple into ft. Myers area and one way south. Ddint see that on 12z

Yea some hurricanes near fort Myers on the 18z Eps

https://i.postimg.cc/TY6FcDgp/IMG-7513.png

One member into Everglades city too! If this drifts further south over the next 24 hours that could cause a more south track. Then the coastline shape of FL and how sharp the NE movement is then a factor too. I still think Ft. Myers too far south but maybe Sarasota or Venice would be slightly possible. Again not optimal conditions and not a lot of time. Maybe a cat2 max. Even a cat1 landfall in Charlotte COunty or Southern Sarasota county would hurt Ian recovery.

If this was a traditional trof set up or something like it was for Charley, I'd be saying this was SWFL storm.

[BobHarlem]

0z icon is left of 18z up toward Crystal River.



Also worth noting, both Franklin and this system goes over Bermuda on this run.

[IcyTundra]

00Z GFS coming in a bit stronger

[Ianswfl]

GFS swings west, Canadian a touch east from last run!

Until this thing gets in the gulf and the erratic movement stops, we're going to see swings in the models like this.

[IcyTundra]

970 MB approaching landfall near Mexico Beach and Port St Joe

[BobHarlem]

0z Canadian, pretty much identical as 12z for TD#10 (Eastpoint east of Apalachicola)



This run takes Franklin over Bermuda though.

[LarryWx]

0Z UKMET: ~40 mile E shift at LF into NW Big Bend vs E Panhandle on 12Z run; once inland sharper turn to go offshore SC vs 12Z going over Augusta and then staying inland through SC into much of NC


TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10L ANALYSED POSITION : 21.0N 85.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL102023

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 27.08.2023 0 21.0N 85.5W 1004 25
1200UTC 27.08.2023 12 20.3N 85.6W 1002 27
0000UTC 28.08.2023 24 20.6N 85.3W 999 32
1200UTC 28.08.2023 36 21.7N 85.5W 999 35
0000UTC 29.08.2023 48 22.8N 85.5W 1000 38
1200UTC 29.08.2023 60 24.5N 85.6W 1000 41
0000UTC 30.08.2023 72 26.5N 85.3W 998 39
1200UTC 30.08.2023 84 29.2N 84.1W 995 45
0000UTC 31.08.2023 96 31.9N 81.8W 992 42
1200UTC 31.08.2023 108 33.6N 77.7W 991 43
0000UTC 01.09.2023 120 34.4N 73.4W 992 56
1200UTC 01.09.2023 132 34.4N 69.0W 996 52
0000UTC 02.09.2023 144 33.2N 65.7W 1000 45
1200UTC 02.09.2023 156 33.6N 63.2W 999 43
0000UTC 03.09.2023 168 33.5N 60.3W 997 48

[BobHarlem]

 https://twitter.com/watkinstrack/status/1695655862327464378

[jasons2k]

The models are going to show what they show, but as an old-timer looking at old school physics, this setup makes me nervous. Given the hot furnace of the Gulf, this system may wrap-up quickly before landfall and go further east, as we have seen before.

I think the entire Tampa Bay metro area needs to prepare for a landfalling hurricane, just north of the bay. I'm very concerned about the surge potential with this one. I've already called my Aunt in Dunedin Isles and told her to get ready.

[Ianswfl]

https://twitter.com/watkinstrack/status/1695655862327464378

I still think Tampa down to Bradenton is still in play. I doubt down by me in Punta Gorda a direct hit but I wouldn't be shocked if I get some hurricane force gusts with a landfall in Tampa area.

[sarcean]

The models are going to show what they show, but as an old-timer looking at old school physics, this setup makes me nervous. Given the hot furnace of the Gulf, this system may wrap-up quickly before landfall and go further east, as we have seen before.

I think the entire Tampa Bay metro area needs to prepare for a landfalling hurricane, just north of the bay. I'm very concerned about the surge potential with this one. I've already called my Aunt in Dunedin Isles and told her to get ready.

I do not know the in and outs of every single model but how many of them really take into account the super warm Gulf that is near 100 degrees in places (record temps). When it does landfall the storm should still be intensifying over those jet fuel like waters.

[Ianswfl]

Hurricane models are a bit more west so far. Gfs shifted west but the Hurricane models are based off the gfs so makes sense they'd shift too.

[BobHarlem]

Hurricane models are a bit more west so far. Gfs shifted west but the Hurricane models are based off the gfs so makes sense they'd shift too.

Both HALFs are pushing into the Cat 4 range this run too. (More noticeable increase on the B compared to 18z where HALFS-B is pushing toward Cat 5, but both variants are stronger)

[BobHarlem]

0z HAFS-B Borderline Cat 4/5 into St. Marks


0z HAFS-A Cat 4 Just East of St Marks, closer to Perry.


We need the recon.

[Ianswfl]

0z HAFS-B Borderline Cat 4/5 into St. Marks
https://i.imgur.com/H2vL6C1.png

0z HAFS-A Cat 4 Just East of St Marks, closer to Perry.
https://i.imgur.com/RIWhx3E.png

Top one is 850mb level not surface winds.