ATL: IDALIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

He did it again.

 https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/1696941450762559909

[toad strangler]

He did it again.

https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/1696941450762559909

Glad you didn't say "Oops" before that.

Ya, Morgerman is one focused dude.

[chaser1]

Something's seriously "off". Were NWS reporting station anenometers in Perry and Tallahassee Airport both broken during the entire event?

[Steve]

Salute!


Make no mistake, I am very upset about the folks that had water in Big Bend and the west coast down to Tampa.

It is just that I have the pictures of Holly Beach and Waveland in my brain. Three of my family lost their homes in Katrina, not from wind but tidal surge and a failed levee. Water was seven feet high just two blocks from my old home in NOLA, which had none due to three foot pilings and not on a slab.

Later,

Gums sends...

Hey Gums. Ubuntwo's post sums it up. Like your family members, I also lost my house to failed levees. That's obviously a different situation than what happened over on the Gulf Coast where they had that enormous surge in Katrina. One thing I'd add to what U-two said was that the compact nature of Idalia, and probably the fact that it didn't really become a hurricane until 24-30 hours (whatever it was) prior to landfall, this storm didn't drag in all that surge that Katrina did due to size and prior Cat 5 intensity. Katrina weakened substantially before landfall, but the water was already part of the system at that point. So while surge will probably be historic and have set records in some parts of the Big Bend and coastal Florida, it can apparently be much worse if we ever see a bigger and badder system in the NE Gulf.

[Sciencerocks]

[tallywx]

Going back through the data, it probably peaked at 110 kt at 0800Z, with a pressure of 940 mb. The SFMR was probably inflated by the shallow water in the area and the many islands, and the flight level winds (123 kt peak) support 111 kt at the surface.

As far as the landfall intensity (1130Z), I would set it at 100 kt, which likely was limited to almost uninhabited areas near the coastline. The pressure at the time I estimate was 950 mb. I'll write a full BT either later tonight or tomorrow.

I recorded 954.6 mb on Hwy 19 in the exact center of the eye at 0810am ET using a Kestrel 5500 adjusted to my elevation (55 feet above sea level per topo map marker at the intersection). Coordinates were 30.01041N, 83.51812W. That seems to jive with your 950mb estimate at landfall if we presume some filling in the intervening 25 minutes.

[caneman]

Salute!


Make no mistake, I am very upset about the folks that had water in Big Bend and the west coast down to Tampa.

It is just that I have the pictures of Holly Beach and Waveland in my brain. Three of my family lost their homes in Katrina, not from wind but tidal surge and a failed levee. Water was seven feet high just two blocks from my old home in NOLA, which had none due to three foot pilings and not on a slab.

Later,

Gums sends...

Hey Gums. Ubuntwo's post sums it up. Like your family members, I also lost my house to failed levees. That's obviously a different situation than what happened over on the Gulf Coast where they had that enormous surge in Katrina. One thing I'd add to what U-two said was that the compact nature of Idalia, and probably the fact that it didn't really become a hurricane until 24-30 hours (whatever it was) prior to landfall, this storm didn't drag in all that surge that Katrina did due to size and prior Cat 5 intensity. Katrina weakened substantially before landfall, but the water was already part of the system at that point. So while surge will probably be historic and have set records in some parts of the Big Bend and coastal Florida, it can apparently be much worse if we ever see a bigger and badder system in the NE Gulf.

Hey Steve, i hope youre doing well my Central Florida Hurricane pal. Yep and another thing Gums isnt taking into account is that peak storm surge occurred around 7 here in the Tampa Bay area which was low tide and 3 feet below the King high tide.
Had it hit around noon, the King High tide would have added another 3 feet to it. All our Pinellas beaches had surge across the main road all the way up to and into some of the businesses. All Pinellas beaches are closed. Many of us locals have been thru many storms but have never seen it this bad since the infamous 1993 No Name Storm. Gums is wayyyy off base. So, worse surge I've seen since 1993 and a 5 hour later arrival would have went from very bad to catastrophic.

[InfernoFlameCat]

The question is now, will Idalia come back for round two?

[norva13x]

It is amazing to see all the flooding in Tampa and then remember the storm hit almost 100 miles away from it, makes you scared of a direct hit that will one day come. Hopefully not for a long time.

[cycloneye]

Wow, NHC was stellar as always they do on the tracks with their track of Idalia as it was only 13 miles of difference from the first forecast track to the final landfall area at Keaton Beach.

 https://twitter.com/WxNB_/status/1696997608500129831

[emeraldislenc]

Pretty amazing to see the clouds that moved off the south Carolina coast they are a really deep red in contrast to the portion of the storm still over South Carolina.

[Nimbus]

It is amazing to see all the flooding in Tampa and then remember the storm hit almost 100 miles away from it, makes you scared of a direct hit that will one day come. Hopefully not for a long time.

I used to think the 5 foot elevation was fairly safe for mainland Pinellas county.
People west of Alternate 19 below 5 feet got flooded this storm but it would be a rare storm that brought 8 feet of surge to western Pinellas and that would over-wash areas of the barrier islands.

[wx98]

Going back through the data, it probably peaked at 110 kt at 0800Z, with a pressure of 940 mb. The SFMR was probably inflated by the shallow water in the area and the many islands, and the flight level winds (123 kt peak) support 111 kt at the surface.

As far as the landfall intensity (1130Z), I would set it at 100 kt, which likely was limited to almost uninhabited areas near the coastline. The pressure at the time I estimate was 950 mb. I'll write a full BT either later tonight or tomorrow.

I agree with this assessment wholeheartedly. Didn’t agree with the Cat 4 upgrade based on a single recon pass when the EWRC was imminent. Don’t think it was really a Cat 4. Been following hurricanes for 20 years, and NHC is usually much more reserved in upgrading these. Likely it was due to land proximity in this case.

[caneman]

It is amazing to see all the flooding in Tampa and then remember the storm hit almost 100 miles away from it, makes you scared of a direct hit that will one day come. Hopefully not for a long time.

I used to think the 5 foot elevation was fairly safe for mainland Pinellas county.
People west of Alternate 19 below 5 feet got flooded this storm but it would be a rare storm that brought 8 feet of surge to western Pinellas and that would over-wash areas of the barrier islands.

Almost happened this time. Had our max surge been 5 hours later, we would have been on Kings high tide instead if low tide which would have added another 3 feet!!!! The low and high tide differential was 3 feet.

[caneman]

It is amazing to see all the flooding in Tampa and then remember the storm hit almost 100 miles away from it, makes you scared of a direct hit that will one day come. Hopefully not for a long time.

Just 40 or 50 miles closer and or hitting 5 hours later on Kings tide would have made a very bad surge a catastrophe

[Ronel2020]

The tide tonight in Charleston is quite high. I think it will be the 4th of 5th highest on records. I bet the old wooden pier on the Isle of Palms is taking a beating tonight. A near shore buoy shows over 10’ waves. Will be interesting to see what the beaches look like in the morning.

https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/water ... =6&action=

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... tion=41065

[JaxGator]

Update 2: Moody AFB’s Weather Flight confirmed that the base and Valdosta experienced hurricane conditions (Cat 1). First time experiencing the eyewall, though it was on the edge of it. Emergency crews are cleaning up tree debris, restoring electricity and inspecting damaged infrastructure. Blessed that Idalia wasn’t as strong as it could have been. Lots of cleaning up to do.

[cycloneye]

[OuterBanker]

All kinds of warnings. But, dead calm steady rain. Dry slot soon.

Wondering if we will escape.

Stay tuned for as the storm turns.

[Teban54]

As bad as Idalia already was, it could have been much, much worse if even one of the following happened:

• If it tracked slightly further east and landfalled between Cedar Key and Tampa, bringing the highest surge into Tampa Bay
• If it tracked slightly further west and pushed the highest winds into Tallahassee
• If it hit a few hours later at high tide, significantly worsening the surge
• If it moved at a slower pace in the Gulf, giving it more time to strengthen
• If it wasn't heavily sheared in the NW Caribbean, and intensified to a hurricane or even a major with the extreme OHC there before entering the Gulf
• If it didnt have a brief hiccup with dry air and eyewall issues after first entering the Gulf
• And the most obvious of all, if it didn't start an EWRC right before landfall

It might not feel like it, but we really lucked out on this one.