ATL: IDALIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[hohnywx]

I'm thinking NHC will call it a TD and predict landfall north of Tampa just east of the big bend as a 55kt or 60kt TS on their first advisory. Could be some significant rain and wind into the Tampa area Wednesday morning. It emerges offshore S. Carolina late Wednesday and might have a shot at becoming stronger as it tracks slowly away from the coast. We'll see in a couple of hours.

https://imageshack.com/i/poeSGmCUj

Bravo!

[cycloneye]

The buoy in the channel has had strong west winds for hours

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... t=E&tz=EST

The southern band of squalls was passing earlier. It's outside the squalls now, but a SW wind is consistent with TD status. NHC may want to get recon in it before calling it a TD or TS. Anyone know when recon is scheduled?

I posted it on the 93L recon thread, but I can tell you on Sunday morning at 6 AM.


https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopi ... 7#p3036557

[Iceresistance]

Seriously?

https://s11.gifyu.com/images/SguA9.png
https://s11.gifyu.com/images/SguA9.png

You can't make this stuff up

Here is my favorite picture for this: this was from a week ago with the trio of Emily, Franklin, and Gert (before they developed).

https://i.ibb.co/DLbfbKd/ascat.png

Good grief! That is ridiculous! I'm actually glad you kept that image!

[wxman57]

AL, 93, 2023082618, , BEST, 0, 211N, 861W, 25, 1006, DB,

Doubt they are going to upgrade it at 5.

At the very least we should get a PTC. The 2pm TWO said that advisories will be initiated later today if development trends continue.

No necessarily will a PTC be issued. A PTC will be issued if a disturbance has both a high chance of development within 48 hrs (check) and there is a need for TS watches (no check) for arrival of TS winds on land within 48 hrs. Any TS wind into FL will not be until Tuesday PM at the earliest, so second qualification is not met for PTC advisories. That is, unless the forecast is for TS wind near the NE Yucatan, which is well within 48 hrs. Glad I don't have to follow their forecast criteria. We made the call yesterday morning to start advisories.

[wxman57]

The buoy in the channel has had strong west winds for hours

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... t=E&tz=EST

The southern band of squalls was passing earlier. It's outside the squalls now, but a SW wind is consistent with TD status. NHC may want to get recon in it before calling it a TD or TS. Anyone know when recon is scheduled?

I posted it on the 93L recon thread, but I can tell you on Sunday morning at 6 AM.

https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopi ... 7#p3036557

You can't tell me until Sunday morning, Luis? (Airplane...)

[SFLcane]

Sounds like a pretty sheared mess incoming in the gulf per Wxman.

[robbielyn]

How many I storms were nothing burgers?

[typhoonty]

Satellite imagery is suggestive of at least a TD and quite possibly a TS. However, wind to its west in Cancun is NNW at only 5 kts. We have seen systems in the past that look like tropical storms on satellite, but recon can't close off a well-defined circulation. In this case, I think it's a TD and NHC will start advisories in a couple hours. As for landfall intensity, it does look like SW wind shear increases the farther north it tracks. The environment across the NE Gulf may not be favorable enough for a hurricane to survive. Lots of southwest wind shear north of 25N. Our shift forecaster wanted to go 65-70 kts at landfall, but we talked him down from the ledge until we're more confident. Always better to start low and go stronger than the other way around.

I'm thinking NHC will call it a TD and predict landfall north of Tampa just east of the big bend as a 55kt or 60kt TS on their first advisory. Could be some significant rain and wind into the Tampa area Wednesday morning. It emerges offshore S. Carolina late Wednesday and might have a shot at becoming stronger as it tracks slowly away from the coast. We'll see in a couple of hours.

po
Feel like I’ve seen this exact scenario before and I did not like how it turned out…

The Tampa shields always work, pray for those in the big bend/panhandle.

The "Tampa Shield" will work until it doesn't. I moved up to Tampa from Fort Myers post Ian. Saying that there is a shield breeds complacency for when the shield finally breaks, and it WILL break.

[skillz305]

Whenever WX is bearish, in my experience, he has always been correct.

[IcyTundra]

Whenever WX is bearish, in my experience, he has always been correct.

Only time I remember him being being bearish and wrong was with Michael but everyone was wrong about Michael.

[chaser1]

AL, 93, 2023082618, , BEST, 0, 211N, 861W, 25, 1006, DB,

Doubt they are going to upgrade it at 5.

At the very least we should get a PTC. The 2pm TWO said that advisories will be initiated later today if development trends continue.

The pace of contractions have eased and dialation seems to have paused at about 4 centimeters. I dont see any evidence of our little girl's (Idalia) head cresting quite yet LOL. Seriously though, it appears that cloud tops have recently warmed. I still havn't seen any bouy data indicating wind gusts over 20 mph. NHC could have kicked this to a TD hours ago, thus I'm not sure why they would suddenly choose to do so an hour from now. There's typically a delay between pressure falls and increase in wind speed. Perhaps they will put off any upgrade until they at least begin to see new convection and colder cloud tops fire up over the supposed center, along with some evidence of any increase in wind speeds. Maybe that occurs by mid or late evening. As it is, I dont think their quite at the window where PTC advisories have to be hoisted yet.

[MarioProtVI]

Sounds like a pretty sheared mess incoming in the gulf per Wxman.

We’ll see how accurate this pans out next week

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/AdamLucioWX/status/1695516962154029077

[Iceresistance]

How many I storms were nothing burgers?

Imelda 2019 and Isaias 2020, only impactful I storms to be not retired in the past few years.

[typhoonty]

Whenever WX is bearish, in my experience, he has always been correct.

I wouldn't say he's being bearish here. 55-60 kts was largely seen as 93L's ceiling 48 hours ago. He's been far more bearish before.

[zzzh]

https://twitter.com/AdamLucioWX/status/1695516962154029077

That product is not reliable.

[skillz305]

Whenever WX is bearish, in my experience, he has always been correct.

I wouldn't say he's being bearish here. 55-60 kts was largely seen as 93L's ceiling 48 hours ago. He's been far more bearish before.

Valid. A week ago, model runs on Franklin showed this happening in the GOM. It’s just all playing out.

[chaser1]

How many I storms were nothing burgers?

Imelda 2019 and Isaias 2020, only impactful I storms to be not retired in the past few years.

Which raises a quick question. Anyone know what was the weakest named storm to have it's name retired??

[HurricaneBelle]

Once again we're in the dreaded "storm potentially paralleling the coast" scenario, in which tenths of a degree difference in longitude will make a huge difference as to who gets a direct hit from the Pandhandle to SWFL. Forget the cone, which is not a measure of impact, and prepare anywhere along the FL Gulf coast.

Hopefully Ian taught everyone a lesson in this regard.

[ElectricStorm]

How many I storms were nothing burgers?

Imelda 2019 and Isaias 2020, only impactful I storms to be not retired in the past few years.

Which raises a quick question. Anyone know what was the weakest named storm to have it's name retired??

Allison and Erika are the only two TS to have their names retired