ATL: IDALIA - Models

[BobHarlem]

0z HAFS-B Borderline Cat 4/5 into St. Marks
https://i.imgur.com/H2vL6C1.png

0z HAFS-A Cat 4 Just East of St Marks, closer to Perry.
https://i.imgur.com/RIWhx3E.png

Top one is 850mb level not surface winds.

Fixed, too many links flying around. Still getting close to cat 5 there. Recon usually does wonders for these types of models so tomorrow will be something to watch.

[PavelGaborik10]

Substantial shift W tonight. Too soon to say, but there are going to be a lot of people eating crow if the GFS gets the last laugh in regards to landfall here.

Recon data will be extremely important tomorrow

[LarryWx]

I do not know the in and outs of every single model but how many of them really take into account the super warm Gulf that is near 100 degrees in places (record temps). When it does landfall the storm should still be intensifying over those jet fuel like waters.

There are no portions of the Gulf that are currently near 100F. In July, Manatee Bay buoy hit 100 one day and 101 the next. But those were recorded in a very shallow, protected area just offshore S FL with a sunlight absorbing dark bottom that could be seen from above. Also, these water temps were hit only late in afternoon for a short period followed by cooling to near 90 each night. And now the hottest afternoon water temps are "only" near 90.

[BobHarlem]

0z HMON around Port St. Joe

[Blown Away]

If the HAFS are correct with a MH landfall in Big Bend, that is very rare. GFS is rarely correct when it’s the west outlier. There is always a first I guess.

[stormhunter7]

Looks like slight west shift in 00z Euro and little stronger?

[LarryWx]

Looks like slight west shift in 00z Euro and little stronger?

Yes, slight NW shift. 987 mb landfall at NW Big Bend 2PM on Wednesday (8/30). Very close to 0Z UKMET landfall point. Strongest Euro run so far. Earlier landfalls were with SLP in low 990s. A big mess for the Big Bend.

[cycloneye]

Strongest GFS run yet at 06z and a little right, 964 mbs to big bend.

[N2FSU]

0z HAFS-B would be catastrophic for those of us in Tallahassee and this area


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[otowntiger]

0z HAFS-B would be catastrophic for those of us in Tallahassee and this areahttps://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20230827/cf055b4dad3d0f54c49b1c0e50d763c9.jpg


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yep- that would be a worst case scenario for metro Tallahassee- cat 4 coming in just to your southwest- I know you are safe from storm surge being 30+ miles inland, but Michael proved if the storm was strong enough, moving at the a good clip and comes in at the right angle, inland wind damage even as far inland as you are can be very significant. Just look at Marianna during Michael- 50 miles inland but they were absolutely devastated.

[Blown Away]

06z HAFS models >1 degree SE of 00z with landfall just N of Tampa near Crystal River. So it appears the longer TD10 takes to move out of the Caribbean that delay may result in E adjustments. Note, not as strong on the 06z compared to 00z.

[chris_fit]

06z GFS is slightly E of the 00z run.

[TallyTracker]

0z HAFS-B Borderline Cat 4/5 into St. Marks
https://i.imgur.com/TMmQjA3.png

0z HAFS-A Cat 4 Just East of St Marks, closer to Perry.
https://i.imgur.com/RIWhx3E.png

We need the recon.

That would likely result in the highest recorded storm surge ever. The peak of Apalachee Bay is the most surge prone location in the entire Atlantic basin.

[Blown Away]

0z HAFS-B Borderline Cat 4/5 into St. Marks
https://i.imgur.com/TMmQjA3.png

0z HAFS-A Cat 4 Just East of St Marks, closer to Perry.
https://i.imgur.com/RIWhx3E.png

We need the recon.

That would likely result in the highest recorded storm surge ever. The peak of Apalachee Bay is the most surge prone location in the entire Atlantic basin.

Yes it would, I’m think of my little fishing hole in Steinhatchee. Yikes!

[Blown Away]

06z HWRF… Full degree SE of 00z.

[Ianswfl]

Hwrf running. Trying to pull a charley. Sharp turn, maybe sarasota this run

[gatorcane]

06Z HWRF way east:

[chris_fit]

06z Euro running. Almost identical through 36hrs VS the 00z run.

[johngaltfla]

I wonder if the 18Z models will reinitialize further east and change the 48 hour path much based on what the plane finds this morning.

[chris_fit]

Looking a little weaker on the 06z Euro through 48hrs... Might be more E later in the track if weaker.