ATL: FRANKLIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Woofde]

Upgraded to a Cat 4!

[Teban54]

800
WTNT63 KNHC 281135
TCUAT3

Hurricane Franklin Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023
735 AM EDT Mon Aug 28 2023

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND FRANKLIN TO BE STRONGER...

Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data indicate that
Hurricane Franklin has strengthened this morning. The maximum winds
are estimated to be 130 mph (210 km/h) with higher gusts. The
minimum central pressure has dropped to 942 mb. The next full
advisory on Franklin will be at 11AM EDT (1500 UTC).

SUMMARY OF 735 AM...1135 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.4N 70.8W
ABOUT 405 MI...650 KM N OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 490 MI...790 KM SW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...210 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...942 MB...27.82 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Brown

[InfernoFlameCat]

Wow Franklin, beauty in the open ocean. Let’s hope Idalia doesn’t follow your path.

[Teban54]

Franklin was upgraded to Cat 3 at 5pm EDT, and just three hours later, recon found it at Cat 4 strength. The last (and probably only) storm where I remember this happening was Delta 2020, which was upgraded to a Cat 4 just 20 minutes after the advisory cycle. Of course, I expect Franklin's intensity at and possibly before 5pm to be raised in the TCR.

Also, Franklin's current appearance is starting to resemble several strong EPAC storms of recent years with a warm CDO but a warm and symmetric eye, such as Douglas, Felicia, Darby and Dora. While it's comparing apples to oranges, recon into Franklin should give us additional insight on the true intensity of these EPAC storms and whether (or how much) they've been underestimated by Dvorak.

[Beef Stew]

Franklin is really impressing today, and the environment appears to be conductive for even further strengthening. While Idalia is getting most of the attention- rightly so due to potential impacts- Franklin is probably the best-looking hurricane in the open-Atlantic hurricane since Sam.

[tolakram]

[aspen]

The eye has warmed dramatically in just the last few hours and is now almost completely WMG on the Dvorak filter. Probably some significant deepening going on. The next center pass should tell us how fast Franklin is deepening.

[tolakram]

full size: https://i.imgur.com/NUbMYlC.png

[kevin]

Still early to make a call like this, but Franklin might be THE hurricane of the Atlantic season in terms of strength/look. Absolute stunner and improving by the minute.

[kevin]

936.2 mb extrapolated, 131 kt FL, 125 kt SFMR . I'd say this is 937mb/125kt at the moment.

[aspen]

936.2 mb extrapolated, 131 kt FL, 125 kt SFMR . I'd say this is 937mb/125kt at the moment.

Gonna need another special advisory lol. There’s a real shot Franklin becomes a Cat 5 at this rate.

[kevin]

Deepening at a little over 3 mb/hr based on this second pass. Another 20 hrs of potential strengthening is possible before conditions worsen so the ceiling is very high.

[TallyTracker]

A possible open-Atlantic Cat 5! When was the last one? Isabel in 2003?

Wait…forgot about Irma…lol Though this location is closer to where Isabel attained Cat 5.

[Teban54]

A possible open-Atlantic Cat 5! When was the last one? Isabel in 2003?

Wait…forgot about Irma…lol Though this location is closer to where Isabel attained Cat 5.

Dorian and Lorenzo both got to Cat 5 in the open Atlantic since Irma.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Beautiful, power house of a storm!

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Special advisory for Franklin - up to 145mph.

Code: Select all

...FRANKLIN RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING...
9:00 AM EDT Mon Aug 28
Location: 27.5°N 70.9°W
Moving: NNW at 8 mph
Min pressure: 937 mb
Max sustained: 145 mph

[InfernoFlameCat]

145 mph Franklin. Gah dang. Wow.

[ElectricStorm]

Wow! Was expecting it to get strong but was not expecting it to make a run for Cat 5. Hopefully impacts in Bermuda are minimal

Both HAFS models showed it bombing to a Cat 5 a few days ago so this could be a big win for those models of that happens

[InfernoFlameCat]

I love the nhc with how prompt they are with storms. Lovely agency. I mean, I couldn’t have asked for more with Franklin. They have been on top of it with this system!

[Teban54]

936.2 mb extrapolated, 131 kt FL, 125 kt SFMR . I'd say this is 937mb/125kt at the moment.

Nailed it!