BoB: MOCHA - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/Indiametdept/status/1656606492479434753

[cycloneye]

TXIO22 KNES 111239
TCSNIO

A. 01B (MOCHA)

B. 11/1130Z

C. 12.2N

D. 88.1E

E. THREE/MET-9

F. T4.0/4.0

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...8/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 4.0 AFTER ADDING 0.5 FOR
WHITE BANDING. THE MET IS 3.0 BASED ON A RAPID DEVELOPMENT TREND OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE PT IS 3.5. THE FT IS BASED ON THE DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...BERTALAN

[doomhaMwx]

Models are trending more north on a Cox's Bazar (Bangladesh) landfall, which could be a worse scenario.

[Sciencerocks]

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

Is now severe cyclonic storm.

 https://twitter.com/Indiametdept/status/1656720152300322817

[Hurricane2022]

TPIO10 PGTW 111800

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (MOCHA)

B. 11/1800Z

C. 12.81N

D. 88.08E

E. FIVE/GK2A

F. T3.5/3.5/D1.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .80 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 3.5.MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


GOYETTE

?????????????

[cycloneye]

Hurricane2022, up to 4.0.

TXIO22 KNES 111819
TCSNIO

A. 01B (MOCHA)

B. 11/1730Z

C. 12.8N

D. 88.1E

E. THREE/MET-9

F. T4.0/4.0

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...10/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 4.0 AFTER ADDING 0.5 FOR
WHITE BANDING. THE MET IS 3.5 BASED ON A RAPID DEVELOPING TREND OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE PT IS ALSO 3.5. THE FT IS BASED ON THE DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...BERTALAN

[Hurricane2022]

Hurricane2022, up to 4.0.

TXIO22 KNES 111819
TCSNIO

A. 01B (MOCHA)

B. 11/1730Z

C. 12.8N

D. 88.1E

E. THREE/MET-9

F. T4.0/4.0

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...10/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 4.0 AFTER ADDING 0.5 FOR
WHITE BANDING. THE MET IS 3.5 BASED ON A RAPID DEVELOPING TREND OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE PT IS ALSO 3.5. THE FT IS BASED ON THE DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...BERTALAN

Ah, thanks!

[Hurricane2022]

 https://twitter.com/cyanide_bot/status/1656740614304845825



I hope they will revise this garbage estimate later

[Sciencerocks]

[Sciencerocks]

https://twitter.com/VortixWx/status/1656778708714135553
 https://twitter.com/VortixWx/status/1656778708714135553

[aspen]

https://twitter.com/cyanide_bot/status/1656740614304845825?t=vlmZ5Xv2SxLG59RvG1Kq6w&s=19
I hope they will revise this garbage estimate later

JTWC and garbage intensity/Dvorak estimates, name a better duo.

I don’t think this is a Cat 2 or higher just yet, but yeah this is an easy hurricane-intensity system. We could be looking at something at or approaching MH intensity in 12 hours.

[Hurricane2022]

Mocha may even be a tasty name for us, but unfortunately it will be quite bitter for Bangladesh, Myanmar and maybe India. Pray for this poor people

[cycloneye]

Oh boy.

 https://twitter.com/RobertSpetaWX/status/1656809396255457282

[cycloneye]

[doomhaMwx]

I don't get why IMD isn't forecasting an "extremely severe cyclonic storm" (90–119kts) at this point. I wonder what intensity guidance they're looking at.

[Sciencerocks]

[Hurricane2022]

I don't get why IMD isn't forecasting an "extremely severe cyclonic storm" (90–119kts) at this point. I wonder what intensity guidance they're looking at.

That is because they're IMD

[doomhaMwx]

I don't get why IMD isn't forecasting an "extremely severe cyclonic storm" (90–119kts) at this point. I wonder what intensity guidance they're looking at.

That is because they're IMD

Unfortunately, I don't think those in the forecast path realize how serious this storm is when IMD is forecasting "only" 85kts at landfall (and unlike in the WPAC, JTWC doesn't appear to be a popular source of info in this basin).