ATL: BRET - Remnants - Discussion

[NotSparta]

92L's large size? Have we forgotten about some of the gigantic waves we've seen lumber through the MDR in the past few years? In comparison 92L is tiny so it'll have an easier time forming

[Zonacane]

92L's large size? Have we forgotten about some of the gigantic waves we've seen lumber through the MDR in the past few years? In comparison 92L is tiny so it'll have an easier time forming

Like isaias

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1670104139693711360

[Sciencerocks]

 https://twitter.com/AlanSevere/status/1670121457957912576

[OuterBanker]

92L is definitely starting to wrap up. CCKW is really helping. MLC appears to be lining up with LLC. Sw component now evident in llc. To look this good this far east this time of year is beyond ridiculous

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track has one millibar drop:

AL, 92, 2023061718, , BEST, 0, 100N, 274W, 20, 1011, WV

[cycloneye]

Agree 100% with Levi. Slowly but surely, is organizing.

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1670150449843011584

[AtlanticWind]

I expect we will see it continue to become better defined tonight, could be a depression by late sunday or monday
I believe.

[Sciencerocks]

Probably forming a LLC and probably within 24 hours of being deserving of an upgrade.

[JetFuel_SE]

Probably forming a LLC and probably within 24 hours of being deserving of an upgrade.
https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img922/8051/nSVWn2.gif

DMAX will be key.

[USTropics]

Tropical Tidbits now has RGB WV imagery just in time to track 92L:


 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1670155325461381120




A good breakdown of the spectrum bands used (similar to how the true color imagery is created) - https://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/training/visit/quick_guides/Simple_Water_Vapor_RGB.pdf

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/Yellow_Evan/status/1670193991319711745

[USTropics]

While still a bit elongated, the low-level vorticity has really consolidated this evening. You can follow the full evolution over the past 2 days in the animation below:


Mid-level vort signature has responded to this as well:


Given improvements in structure, we should see a pulse up in convection as we enter DMAX.

[zzzh]

Up to 60/80.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sat Jun 17 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL92):
A tropical wave located several hundred miles southwest of the
Cabo Verde Islands is producing a broad area of showers and
thunderstorms. This activity is starting to show some signs of
organization and environmental conditions appear conducive for
additional development. A tropical depression is likely to form by
the early to middle portion of next week while the system moves
westward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

Forecaster Papin

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

The wave looks like it's becoming more convectively active, impressive especially being at DMIN. DMAX may be the trigger.

[GCANE]

IMHO, chances looking good this gets in the Carib
How far, will depend on a ridge that is forecast to be somewhere over eastern Canada or Great Lakes / New England at that time.

[aspen]

While still a bit elongated, the low-level vorticity has really consolidated this evening. You can follow the full evolution over the past 2 days in the animation below:
https://i.postimg.cc/8kRmyMbB/gifmaker-me-10.gif

Mid-level vort signature has responded to this as well:
https://i.imgur.com/X0tS9jJ.png

Given improvements in structure, we should see a pulse up in convection as we enter DMAX.

The consolidation of the 850mb vorticity is pretty much just as the GFS and Euro forecast. I can definitely see genesis by late Monday at the latest now that it’s consolidated.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1670229284722466816