EPAC: INVEST 93E - Discussion

[Cyclenall]

I never thought of this trivia, when was the last 90/90 system to not become anything? Even with the skirt it has since there is no consolidated convection over the LLC if one existed, it doesn't qualify.

[Category5Kaiju]

I never thought of this trivia, when was the last 90/90 system to not become anything? Even with the skirt it has since there is no consolidated convection over the LLC if one existed, it doesn't qualify.

There was a potential tropical cyclone I think back in 2017 in the Atlantic that had something like that happen, iirc. Honestly, I feel like the NHC shouldn't have raised the percent of formation for 93E to 90/90, I feel like it should have maxed out at a lower percent.

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

Keeps decreasing the percent.

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico (EP93):
Shower and thunderstorm activity has decreased this morning, and
remains disorganized around the broad low several hundred miles
west-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. By tonight, the system is
expected to move west-northwestward into a less favorable
environment well west of the coast of mainland Mexico. Therefore,
development of a tropical cyclone is becoming less likely.
Additional information on this system, including gale warnings, can
be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

[ElectricStorm]

I never thought of this trivia, when was the last 90/90 system to not become anything? Even with the skirt it has since there is no consolidated convection over the LLC if one existed, it doesn't qualify.

There was a potential tropical cyclone I think back in 2017 in the Atlantic that had something like that happen, iirc. Honestly, I feel like the NHC shouldn't have raised the percent of formation for 93E to 90/90, I feel like it should have maxed out at a lower percent.

PTC 4 last year in the Atlantic was up there. I don't remember if it was 90/90 but it was close

[wxman57]

No development for this invest. It's moving into a field of closed-cell stratocumulus now. Best chance of development may be midway between Bermuda and the Azores this week.

[NDG]

-PDO/-PMM win over 93E
The same Climate Models that some Pro Mets are skeptical about their Atlantic Basin Forecast also showed a slower EPAC over all.

[cycloneye]

Wow, what a drop from 90% this morning.

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico (EP93):
Shower and thunderstorm activity continues to decrease in
association with the broad low pressure area several hundred miles
west of the coast of western Mexico. This system is moving
west-northwestward into a less favorable environment, and the
chances of tropical cyclone formation are decreasing. Additional
information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

[ElectricStorm]

Should be 0/0 next TWO, what a disappointing invest. Hopefully the 30/80 can do something...

[Teban54]

[Hurricane2022]

:lol:
https://i.postimg.cc/gk1K2X3F/goes18-vis-swir-93-E-202307092035.gif

Larger version of "Tropical Storm" Odette '21.

[Cyclenall]

TWO should've had "falling off a cliff" chance for development.

:lol:

Too funny, that llc got tossed like a side of beef!

[aspen]

What a pathetic invest lol. Looks like the EPac has adopted the Atlantic’s problem of having very large and broad disturbances that take forever to develop, if at all.

[cycloneye]

That's all folks.

Offshore of the Baja California Peninsula (EP93):
Shower and thunderstorm activity remains minimal and well removed
from a broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula.
Tropical cyclone formation is no longer expected.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.