ATL: FRANKLIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GCANE]

Big anti-cyclone will develop over a good portion of the Carib starting around Wednesday and will anchor in.
If 90L stays south of Hispaniola, good chance for strong development.

[cycloneye]

Near the Windward Islands (AL90):
Shower and thunderstorm activity continues in association with an
area of low pressure near the Windward Islands. Some additional
development of this system is likely and a tropical depression could
form by early next week while this system moves westward to
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the eastern and central
Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is possible
over portions of the Windward Islands during the next couple of
days. Interests in the eastern and central Caribbean should monitor
the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

[cycloneye]

AL, 90, 2023082000, , BEST, 0, 131N, 617W, 25, 1006, LO

[Blown Away]

AL, 90, 2023082000, , BEST, 0, 131N, 617W, 25, 1006, LO

18z 13.0 and 00z early is 13.1, is that keeping up with 18z GFS?

[chaser1]

Big anti-cyclone will develop over a good portion of the Carib starting around Wednesday and will anchor in.
If 90L stays south of Hispaniola, good chance for strong development.

All models continue to want to steer 90L into "the rock". Am wondering if this is an issue of the system being initialized as a more vertically deep column then it presently is?

[MarioProtVI]

Looks like this will be Franklin since 98L is gale-force and on the verge of becoming a TC first (thus becoming Emily)

[Landy]

90L continues to look quite healthy this AM.

[FireRat]

Makes me wonder if we might see another Emily 1987 out of this system, especially with the track.

[cycloneye]

Eastern Caribbean (AL90):
Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization in
association with an area of low pressure over the far eastern
Caribbean Sea. Additional development of this system is expected,
and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next couple
of days as it moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph
over the eastern and central Caribbean, before turning northward and
moving into the southwestern Atlantic Ocean by midweek. Regardless
of development, heavy rainfall is possible over portions of the
Lesser Antilles during the next couple of days. Interests in the
eastern and central Caribbean should monitor the progress of this
system. A NOAA Hurricane Reconnaissance mission is scheduled to
investigate the system later today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

[cycloneye]

AL, 90, 2023082012, , BEST, 0, 140N, 651W, 30, 1004, LO

[NDG]

A definite LLC has developed right by the 12z Best Track position.

 https://twitter.com/NDGMETCHEF/status/1693246166803099935

[tolakram]

COD regional loop: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=regional-prregional-02-24-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

GOES Image Viewer: https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G16&sector=car&band=GEOCOLOR&length=24

SLIDER: https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=full_disk&x=13160&y=7866&z=4&angle=0&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&maps%5Bborders%5D=white&p%5B0%5D=geocolor&opacity%5B0%5D=1&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&draw_color=FFD700&draw_width=6

[tolakram]

Time sensitive, I think the LLC is right here: https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=full_disk&x=12883.25&y=7781.25&z=6&angle=0&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&maps%5Bborders%5D=white&p%5B0%5D=geocolor&opacity%5B0%5D=1&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&draw_color=FFD700&draw_width=6

[Teban54]

Naked swirl alert!

[Sciencerocks]

[Blown Away]

GFS says 72 hours before landfall into DR. That LLC is still moving at a good clip.

[Sciencerocks]

Looks to be at least a depression. I think this has a decent chance to being tropical storm Franklin and making landfall on the DR with winds of 45-50 knts. Hurricane for the open Atlantic.

[cycloneye]

Eastern Caribbean (AL90):
Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization in
association with an area of low pressure over the eastern Caribbean
Sea. In addition, visible satellite imagery shows evidence that a
well-defined center is developing, and earlier satellite wind data
indicated the system was producing winds of 35-40 mph. If these
trends continue, a tropical depression or storm could form as soon
as later this afternoon. A NOAA Hurricane Reconnaissance mission is
currently en route to investigate the system this afternoon. The
system is forecast to move westward to west-northwestward at 10 to
15 mph over the eastern and central Caribbean, before turning
northward and potentially affecting the Dominican Republic and Haiti
on Tuesday or Wednesday, where tropical storm watches could become
necessary later this afternoon. Regardless of development, heavy
rainfall is possible over portions of the Lesser Antilles during the
next couple of days. Interests in the eastern and central Caribbean
should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

[ChrisH-UK]

90L has a closed low level circulation but is a bit naked hopefully the upper levels will catch up with it.

[zzzh]

Recon finds pressure down to 1000.4. Much stronger than model prediction.