ATL: IDALIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Jr0d]

Despite good model agreement on where landfall may happen, I would still say it's low confidence and will stay low until a clear center forms and that is input into the models.

This morning the NWS Key West mentioned the disturbance for the first time, currently it looks like our impact will be minimal, a little breezy with scattered squalls from outer bands.

[cycloneye]

Looks like an LLC is trying to form around 19N 85W

Definitely some rotation going on under there... I might place it a hair further north but looks like you're looking in the right spot.

12z Best Track had it at 18.0N-85.0W but, the 18z is comming shortly so we will see where they put it.

[skillz305]

I feel like the CoC is well East of the starting plots. Tricky at this point. As much as we rely on the models support, gotta remember as to where their runs have the starting plot for the disturbance. The entire west coast of FL should be paying attention. Intensity wise? I’ll leave that up to the proMETS. Nice to be back?

[psyclone]

The most accurate model is the one that best suits your deep, dark meteorological desires. I still like the idea of an out of season Cedar Key slop fest. In a summer of perennial west winds and a near shut out of easterly flow, that track actually IS climo this year

[REDHurricane]

LLC trying to set up somewhere in this general area?

[ConvergenceZone]

Between EC & GFS looks most likely. NHC would probably start advisories on Monday. Maybe a PTC to start with at 21Z Monday, since it may not be at TD yet and watches would be needed for 48 hrs out.

With the upper high over Bahamas and low in west-central Gulf, should be a sheared storm by Wed pm.

When that ULL to the west moves out this should be right under an anticyclone. The ULL is moving into Mexico at a pretty good clip right now. I don't see there being that much shear in a couple of days

I was thinking the same thing, but remember, our good buddy and fellow wxman57 doesn't enjoy the idea of having to work long hours, and I don't blame him, so he does do lots of wish casting, but it's all in fun. I kept thinking, when is the last time wxman called for a strong hurricane to develop in the past couple of years, and I really can't remember a time when he did........ But I totally get it. I catch myself wish casting alot too, wanting storms to stay away. Hate seeing loss of pets and life. Anyway, just poking fun at wxman. He knows that we all love him here

but back to the topic at hand, I think this can reach minimal hurricane strength if the timing is right. Like other mets have said on here, it all comes down to timing.

[Hurricaneman]

LLC trying to set up somewhere in this general area?

https://media3.giphy.com/media/v1.Y2lkPTc5MGI3NjExMTlmc3lxOGV0dnVxMTRraW1zazEwdHI0Mm1zcWN1dTZzNWo5Znc0dCZlcD12MV9pbnRlcm5hbF9naWZfYnlfaWQmY3Q9Zw/sjOJIZm2fe3eLJFfJo/giphy.gif

If it sets up there then we may have a system that doesn’t landfall in the Yucatán which means a stronger system for Florida

[wxman57]

LLC trying to set up somewhere in this general area?

https://media3.giphy.com/media/v1.Y2lkPTc5MGI3NjExMTlmc3lxOGV0dnVxMTRraW1zazEwdHI0Mm1zcWN1dTZzNWo5Znc0dCZlcD12MV9pbnRlcm5hbF9naWZfYnlfaWQmY3Q9Zw/sjOJIZm2fe3eLJFfJo/giphy.gif

No west of your red circle. Closer to the coast of the Yucatan. It'll likely hang around Cancun/Cozumel this weekend.

[Stormcenter]

Too funny and very true.

The most accurate model is the one that best suits your deep, dark meteorological desires. I still like the idea of an out of season Cedar Key slop fest. In a summer of perennial west winds and a near shut out of easterly flow, that track actually IS climo this year

[ScottNAtlanta]

I think that what needs to be considered is when this does become a classified system, how organized is it, and is it still under an anticyclone. If this thing forms an organized depression and not a sloppy mess, it is going to RI. The water is way to warm for it not to if the other dynamics are there. Look at all the other systems in this area that have formed and put into context that the water is about 2 C warmer than any of those events. Something to pay attention to.

[toad strangler]

I think that what needs to be considered is when this does become a classified system, how organized is it, and is it still under an anticyclone. If this thing forms an organized depression and not a sloppy mess, it is going to RI. The water is way to warm for it not to if the other dynamics are there. Look at all the other systems in this area that have formed and put into context that the water is about 2 C warmer than any of those events. Something to pay attention to.

We are in that special little zone of 8/20 to 9/9. The barely 3 week stretch in ramp up to peak season. Ya, so I wouldn't be surprised if some tropical trickery regarding intensity is at hand at some point.

[Jr0d]

I feel like the CoC is well East of the starting plots. Tricky at this point. As much as we rely on the models support, gotta remember as to where their runs have the starting plot for the disturbance. The entire west coast of FL should be paying attention. Intensity wise? I’ll leave that up to the proMETS. Nice to be back?

For sure. If this forms further east then I would expect the models/forecast to shift to the right.

One trend today is more northward and less east. We will see if that trend continues or if the models will do the windshield wiper until we get a well defined system.

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track for those who wanted to know the new position.

AL, 93, 2023082518, , BEST, 0, 19.0N, 85.5W, 20, 1008, LO

[REDHurricane]

No west of your red circle. Closer to the coast of the Yucatan. It'll likely hang around Cancun/Cozumel this weekend.

I'll trust your expertise, but to me it looks like there's a definite low-level swirl centered at 84ºW and moving north from around 18-19ºN in this gif -- maybe I'm seeing something else? Still trying to get better at analyzing these things

[typhoonty]

18z Best Track for those who wanted to know the new position.

AL, 93, 2023082518, , BEST, 0, 19.0N, 85.5W, 20, 1008, LO

https://i.imgur.com/WZydqhK.png

If we treated this as god, 12Z Euro is significantly closer to reality than 12Z GFS at T+6.

[hipshot]

18z Best Track for those who wanted to know the new position.

AL, 93, 2023082518, , BEST, 0, 19.0N, 85.5W, 20, 1008, LO

https://i.imgur.com/WZydqhK.png

If we treated this as god, 12Z Euro is significantly closer to reality than 12Z GFS at T+6.

I can't help thinking that the huge ridge over Oklahoma/Texas has to have an affect pulling this storm more towards the north and
northwest. It isn't supposed to move back west for a few days yet and our temps don't indicate it is moving much in the near term.

[wxman57]

I still see an upper trof to its west in the NE Gulf with SW wind shear across the top Tuesday night/Wed. No anticyclone over it.

[wxman57]

I can't help thinking that the huge ridge over Oklahoma/Texas has to have an affect pulling this storm more towards the north and
northwest. It isn't supposed to move back west for a few days yet and our temps don't indicate it is moving much in the near term.

If the ridge stays firm, it goes farther east, not west. Ridges don't pull a storm toward them.

[cycloneye]

Here is the 18z plot of the best track that has it at 19.0N-85.5W.

[FireRat]

I still see an upper trof to its west in the NE Gulf with SW wind shear across the top Tuesday night/Wed. No anticyclone over it.

Hopefully you're right 57, we definitely don't need to lose yet another I name!