ATL: IDALIA - Models

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SFLcane
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#41 Postby SFLcane » Fri Aug 25, 2023 4:26 pm

Icon what are you doing?

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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#42 Postby PavelGaborik10 » Fri Aug 25, 2023 4:26 pm

That's quite the shift from the Icon.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#43 Postby gatorcane » Fri Aug 25, 2023 4:28 pm

NAVGEM also way east across South Florida but usually I use that model to see where a storm won’t go:

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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#44 Postby Ianswfl » Fri Aug 25, 2023 4:30 pm

PavelGaborik10 wrote:That's quite the shift from the Icon.


I can live with the German model. It already seems this is organizing more east than forecasted and NHC also has the X further to the east than the GFS.

What I do note about the Icon is the organization. Despite the east shift it's showing more organization. Notice less dryness on the west side compared to past runs! Maybe this still makes a run at cat1 even if it hits SWFL instead.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#45 Postby chris_fit » Fri Aug 25, 2023 4:34 pm



Looks Stronger too!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#46 Postby Ianswfl » Fri Aug 25, 2023 4:35 pm

chris_fit wrote:


Looks Stronger too!


Still not a strong system, but notice the organization is better than in past runs. More precip on the west side and not as dry looking.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#47 Postby SFLcane » Fri Aug 25, 2023 4:36 pm

chris_fit wrote:


Looks Stronger too!


I mean almost goes over the keys
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#48 Postby chris_fit » Fri Aug 25, 2023 4:42 pm

Ianswfl wrote:
chris_fit wrote:


Looks Stronger too!


Still not a strong system, but notice the organization is better than in past runs. More precip on the west side and not as dry looking.


990 is typically Cat1-ish
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#49 Postby Ianswfl » Fri Aug 25, 2023 4:46 pm

GFS running. A tad east than 12z so far.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#50 Postby Blown Away » Fri Aug 25, 2023 4:53 pm

Image

18z ICON... Decent SE shift near Sarasota... Models trending to less time directly over Yucatan and leading to a stronger TS or Cat 1/2 possibility near FL... JMHO
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#51 Postby jlauderdal » Fri Aug 25, 2023 4:58 pm

SFLcane wrote:Icon what are you doing?

Image
Right in the grill of the consensus...remember ian, the ukie looked like it was crazy and look what happened
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#52 Postby Blown Away » Fri Aug 25, 2023 4:58 pm

Image
GFS trending stronger and SE...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#53 Postby BobHarlem » Fri Aug 25, 2023 5:00 pm

18z Canadian last frame, very slight shift left from 12z, slightly stronger also.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#54 Postby IcyTundra » Fri Aug 25, 2023 5:08 pm

GFS slightly slower and a little further East.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#55 Postby BobHarlem » Fri Aug 25, 2023 5:11 pm

Apalachicola midday Wednesday, a little slower and a shift right.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#56 Postby Nimbus » Fri Aug 25, 2023 5:13 pm

18Z GFS makes landfalls near Apalachicola Wed as a 983 MB hurricane.
So still quite a range with Icon near Ft Myers.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#57 Postby Blown Away » Fri Aug 25, 2023 5:15 pm

When the GFS is Left of the Euro, crap run for GFS. JMHO
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#58 Postby eastcoastFL » Fri Aug 25, 2023 5:15 pm

Nimbus wrote:18Z GFS makes landfalls near Apalachicola Wed as a 983 MB hurricane.
So still quite a range with Icon near Ft Myers.


I imagine we will see a bit of flip flopping on landfall until we get a solid COC.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#59 Postby gatorcane » Fri Aug 25, 2023 5:17 pm

Nimbus wrote:18Z GFS makes landfalls near Apalachicola Wed as a 983 MB hurricane.
So still quite a range with Icon near Ft Myers.


That area of Florida seems to be a storm magnet, amazing how many systems find their way there and fortunately not a densely populated part of the state. But I doubt the storm will end up where the GFS 5-day has it today. We typically see shifting of the models just about to landfall so guessing they will trend more east or west as we get closer. Obviously where the center forms will have big implications as to strength and landfall.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#60 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 25, 2023 5:26 pm

 https://twitter.com/EdPiotrowski/status/1695182910272196625


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