ATL: RINA - Remnants - Discussion

[bahamaswx]

Hard to believe that a storm this far south in September isn't a threat to the islands.

[cycloneye]

Let's do a quick sample here about how much ACE future Rina will get. First the two hurricanes that have got more this season are Franklin with 26.6 and Lee with 36.8. Margot got 12.7 and Nigel had 10.5.

My guess is 20.4.

Ok peeps, Go ahead with your numbers.

[Sciencerocks]

[Sciencerocks]

Let's do a quick sample here about how much ACE future Rina will get. First the two hurricanes that have got more this season are Franklin with 26.6 and Lee with 36.8. Margot got 12.7 and Nigel had 10.5.
My guess is 20.4.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

~14.5. I believe I'll be a hurricane in the western Atlantic and move west of bermuda in about 8-10 days but no more then a cat1-low end 2 at tops.

2 likes   

[Hurricane2022]

Let's do a quick sample here about how much ACE future Rina will get. First the two hurricanes that have got more this season are Franklin with 26.6 and Lee with 36.8. Margot got 12.7 and Nigel had 10.5.
My guess is 20.4.

Ok peeps, Go ahead with your numbers.

16.3 - 25.9 Points of ACE. Peak winds will be around 120 - 145 mph.

[cycloneye]

2 PM TWO:

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL91):
Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization in
association with a broad area of low pressure located several
hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for
development, and a tropical depression is expected to form in the
next day or two while the system moves west-northwestward across the
central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

[KirbyDude25]

Let's do a quick sample here about how much ACE future Rina will get. First the two hurricanes that have got more this season are Franklin with 26.6 and Lee with 36.8. Margot got 12.7 and Nigel had 10.5.
My guess is 20.4.

Ok peeps, Go ahead with your numbers.

I would guess more ACE than Margot, but less than Franklin. Somewhere around 18-20 ACE, peaking at around the same intensity as Nigel but with a longer lifespan.

[Iceresistance]

Let's do a quick sample here about how much ACE future Rina will get. First the two hurricanes that have got more this season are Franklin with 26.6 and Lee with 36.8. Margot got 12.7 and Nigel had 10.5.

My guess is 20.4.

Ok peeps, Go ahead with your numbers.

Difficult forecast because of interaction with Philippe, once the forecast becomes clearer, I can post my ACE guess

[ElectricStorm]

I'll go with about 15 ACE. 80-90kt peak

[WalterWhite]

About 20 ACE and will peak at 105 kt

[aspen]

Maybe 75-90 kt and 10-15 ACE, and that could be too high. It’s very possible 91L ends up as just another repeat of Phillippe.

[cycloneye]

AL, 91, 2023092618, , BEST, 0, 112N, 392W, 30, 1008, DB

[wxman57]

Models were forecasting Philippe to be a long-lasting and intense hurricane. Well, that didn't happen. Will this one have the same fate? There just isn't any high pressure to its north to move it west through the Caribbean. Season appears to be winding down. Still have to watch the NW Caribbean for any late-season Florida mischief.

[Sciencerocks]

I'll say 75knt peak, 14.5 ace and will get to 68 west before recurving. Will last about 8-9 days as a tropical cyclone...

[WalterWhite]

Models were forecasting Philippe to be a long-lasting and intense hurricane. Well, that didn't happen. Will this one have the same fate? There just isn't any high pressure to its north to move it west through the Caribbean. Season appears to be winding down. Still have to watch the NW Caribbean for any late-season Florida mischief.

Just because the models busted Phillipe does not necessarily mean they will bust 91L.

[aspen]

Models were forecasting Philippe to be a long-lasting and intense hurricane. Well, that didn't happen. Will this one have the same fate? There just isn't any high pressure to its north to move it west through the Caribbean. Season appears to be winding down. Still have to watch the NW Caribbean for any late-season Florida mischief.

Just because the models busted Phillipe does not necessarily mean they will bust 91L.

91L will be facing shear, just like Phillipe. It’s up in the air (no pun intended) whether it’ll also bust, or if it’ll manage to pull through and find better luck past 5 days

[Ianswfl]

Models were forecasting Philippe to be a long-lasting and intense hurricane. Well, that didn't happen. Will this one have the same fate? There just isn't any high pressure to its north to move it west through the Caribbean. Season appears to be winding down. Still have to watch the NW Caribbean for any late-season Florida mischief.

I know this is the wrong thread, but do you see a big system forming in the Caribbean in Oct? The Canadian end of the run shows a storm forming. Can you tell us your thoughts for Oct and Nov in another thread? Also with the warm Caribbean and Gulf do you see any Nov Gulf threats?

[cycloneye]

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL91):
Showers and thunderstorms continue to become better organized in
association with an area of low pressure located roughly halfway
between the Cabo Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for
development, and a tropical depression or storm is expected to form
in the next day or so while the system moves west-northwestward
across the central tropical Atlantic. Additional information on this
system, including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

[Sciencerocks]

[Yellow Evan]

Upper environment should keep this in check for at least 5 days. Afterwards harder to say but large size will also make significant strengthening harder to come by.